ChainCatcher news, according to QCP's latest report, Bitcoin's price has fallen below $93,000, leading to over $430 million in long positions being liquidated. This drop occurred after the spot Bitcoin ETF ended five consecutive days of net inflows, recording $438 million in outflows on Monday, while MicroStrategy's stock price fell by 4.4%.Previously, MicroStrategy made a record purchase of $5.4 billion worth of Bitcoin last week. With the U.S. holiday approaching and a lack of catalysts to drive prices up in the short term, Bitcoin's momentum towards $100,000 has temporarily stalled.Ethereum's implied volatility is significantly skewed towards put options, reflecting a market sentiment similar to that of Bitcoin. Currently, market sentiment is cautious, with investors focusing on tonight's Federal Reserve meeting minutes and Wednesday's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data.

ChainCatcher news, Wilmington Trust's bond portfolio manager Wil Stith stated that if the inflation data released on Thursday is stronger than expected, and the non-farm payroll data on Friday is hotter than anticipated, "I think they can discuss pausing the rate cuts because they have already cut rates by 50 basis points before." LPL Financial's chief economist Jeffrey Roach also believes that strong job growth could persuade the Federal Reserve to pause rate cuts in November. However, other observers of the Federal Reserve indicate that the upcoming data on Thursday and Friday is unlikely to change the Fed's rate cut trajectory.Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group, said, "No matter what the data says, the Fed is already on a path to cut rates by 25 basis points in November, and it is unlikely that the central bank will change this trajectory." Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, stated, "There is no reason to believe that the Fed won't cut rates by another 25 basis points in November, unless there is a significant surprise in the employment report."Currently, many traders agree with this assessment. As of last Friday, investors expected a greater than 90% chance that the Federal Reserve would cut rates by 25 basis points at the November meeting.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, according to CME's "Fed Watch," the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points by November is 45.9%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 54.1% (before the PCE data release, these were 50.1% and 49.9% respectively). The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December is 24.0%, the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point cut is 50.2%; the probability of a cumulative 100 basis point cut is 25.8% (before the PCE data release, these were 26.0%, 50.0%, and 24.0% respectively).

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, before the release of PCE data, the CME "FedWatch" tool shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points by November is 50.1%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 49.9%.By December, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 26.0%, the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point cut is 50.0%; the probability of a cumulative 100 basis point cut is 24.0%.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 69.5%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 30.5%.The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting rates by 50 basis points by November is 51.2%, the probability of a cumulative cut of 75 basis points is 40.8%, and the probability of a cumulative cut of 100 basis points is 8.1%.

ChainCatcher message, analysts have indicated that after the latest economic data strengthened expectations for multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, U.S. stock index futures rose slightly. U.S. Treasury yields remained almost unchanged, and the market is poised for its longest consecutive rise since 2021. The PCE index, favored by the Federal Reserve as a measure of potential U.S. inflation, rose moderately in July, while household spending remained robust.Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated last week that the time has come for the Federal Reserve to lower its key policy interest rate. He affirmed expectations that Fed officials will begin to reduce borrowing costs next month and clearly indicated his intention to prevent further cooling of the labor market. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, eToro analyst Bret Kenwell stated that the U.S. June PCE report largely met economists' expectations, with the core PCE index year-on-year increase slightly above expectations. Nevertheless, there were no signs in the report indicating that inflation would unexpectedly accelerate. Coupled with the earlier-than-expected CPI report this month and the recent trend of lower inflation data, this should give the Federal Reserve the green light to cut interest rates later this quarter.In next week's Federal Reserve meeting, all eyes will be on Powell, as people hope and expect him to lay the groundwork for a rate cut in September. In recent years, the Federal Reserve has been very transparent, announcing its actions well in advance, which has increased certainty, and the market likes certainty.

ChainCatcher news, consulting firm BRN digital asset analyst Valentin Fournier stated that the upcoming PCE data could be the final nail in the coffin for high interest rates and prompt the Federal Reserve to announce interest rate cuts; additionally, if rumors about the establishment of a BTC strategic reserve prove true, Trump's speech at the Bitcoin conference could trigger a stronger rebound, and these factors may drive Bitcoin prices to new highs.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, after the release of the U.S. May PCE data, traders increased their bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, U.S. short-term interest rate futures rose after the U.S. data was released, as traders increased their bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut.