CICC Research Report: Non-farm Data Supports the Fed to Continue Cutting Interest Rates

ChainCatcher news, a report from CICC states that after being severely hindered by hurricanes and strikes, the number of new jobs in the U.S. rose sharply to 227,000 in November, but the unemployment rate also increased to 4.2%, indicating that the labor market is slowing down. Overall, the labor market remains in a state of "employment growth momentum weakening, but the job market itself is not weak," which will provide a reason for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again in December.

At the same time, it is predicted that the Federal Reserve will slow down the pace of rate cuts in 2025, as decision-makers will become more cautious as interest rates approach neutral levels. One risk in the forecast is the impact of the immigration policy proposed by Trump on the labor market, which currently tends to have a moderate impact, but the possibility of extreme scenarios also needs to be closely monitored. Based on non-farm data, it is believed that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates by another 25 basis points this month.