ChainCatcher news, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes show that some participants indicated that if inflation remains high, the Fed may pause its easing policy and keep the policy rate at a restrictive level. If the labor market weakens or economic activity stumbles, easing policies may accelerate. Many participants at the Fed's meeting on November 6-7 expressed that the uncertainty around the neutral interest rate level makes it appropriate to gradually reduce policy restrictions.

ChainCatcher news, affected by the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States (Thursday), some economic data and events in the U.S. will be released earlier.In terms of data, the number of initial jobless claims and the revised GDP for the third quarter will be released earlier at 21:30 Beijing time on November 27 (Wednesday), and the monthly PCE inflation data will be released earlier at 23:00 Beijing time on November 27 (Wednesday).In terms of events, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's November monetary policy meeting will be released earlier at 03:00 Beijing time on November 27 (Wednesday).

ChainCatcher news reports that according to 4E monitoring, last Friday, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising nearly 1%, reaching a historic high. The S&P 500 index rose by 0.35%, marking five consecutive trading days of gains, while the Nasdaq increased by 0.16%. Over the week, the Dow accumulated a 2% increase, and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose by 1.7%. As the "Trump Cabinet 2.0" gradually takes shape, the market is generally optimistic about the implementation of Trump's tax cuts and deregulation policies.Cryptocurrencies showed an upward trend last week, with the market sentiment index remaining in the greed phase, indicating investors' optimistic expectations for future price movements. As BTC continues to hit new highs approaching $100,000, market activity has significantly increased, and altcoins generally saw substantial gains following the market trend, while the popularity of meme projects declined last week.In the forex commodities sector, the U.S. dollar index rose nearly 1% last week, surpassing the 108 mark and reaching a two-year high. The bleak economic outlook for the Eurozone has dampened oil demand expectations, but due to the escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine, oil prices rose about 6% last week, marking the best performance in two months. Recent trends in gold have been supported by strong risk aversion and reduced expectations for a Fed rate cut in December, with gold prices rising for five consecutive days last week, accumulating a 5.7% increase, the largest weekly gain in nearly two years.After Trump's victory in the presidential election, the Fed's stance on rate cuts has become increasingly cautious. Last week, a series of hawkish comments from Fed officials cast a shadow over the highly anticipated prospect of a Fed rate cut in December. The minutes from the Fed's November meeting and the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the PCE price index, will be released on Tuesday and Wednesday local time, respectively, which may stir market waves. Currently, investors expect the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December to be slightly above 50%. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, gold commodities, and forex, recently launching a USDT stablecoin wealth management product with an annualized return of 5.5%, providing investors with potential hedging options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets reasonably.

ChainCatcher message, Goldman Sachs strategist Simon Dangoor stated that the Federal Reserve meeting minutes from last night were quite interesting. Clearly, some members showed some caution when considering a 50 basis point rate cut, which is clearly reflected in the dot plot. But evidently, the Fed Chair is dominating the situation here.

ChainCatcher news, "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that at last month's meeting, there was a divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding the magnitude of interest rate cuts. The vast majority supported a larger cut of 50 basis points, which was ultimately approved, while others favored a smaller cut of 25 basis points.The released minutes revealed discussions on why officials chose to start with a bolder 50 basis point cut, marking the first rate reduction since 2020. The decision to lower the rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% was supported by 11 of the 12 members of the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee. One policymaker opposed this decision, advocating for a smaller reduction.The minutes stated that those in favor of a larger cut "generally believed that this adjustment in monetary policy stance would begin to better align it with recent inflation and labor market indicators." Some of these officials felt that a 25 basis point cut at the last meeting at the end of July was "reasonable," and recent data only confirmed the rationale for the rate cut.

ChainCatcher news, BBH analysts stated in a report that the Federal Reserve meeting minutes to be released tonight may show that some Fed officials opposed a 50 basis point rate cut before being persuaded to vote in favor of the majority. At the meeting on September 18, which initiated the monetary easing policy, Fed Governor Bowman was the only dissenting voice, voting for a 25 basis point cut. Since then, the Fed has hinted at another 25 basis point cut next month, which has provided some support for the dollar. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, last Friday, the U.S. non-farm payrolls for September unexpectedly surged by 254,000, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, solidifying expectations for a healthy economic soft landing and prompting the market to retract bets on a significant interest rate cut in November.According to 4E observations, buoyed by expectations of an economic soft landing, U.S. stocks opened higher and closed up on Friday, with the S&P 500 rising 0.90%, gaining 0.22% for the week, the Nasdaq up 1.22%, with a weekly increase of 0.1%, and the Dow Jones up 0.81%, with a slight weekly gain of 0.09%. The China concept index rose over 3% and gained nearly 12% for the week. The cryptocurrency market followed the rise in U.S. stocks, with Bitcoin climbing back above $63,000, closing at 63,859, narrowing its weekly decline to 1.03%, while Ethereum reported 2,507, with a weekly decline narrowed to 4.18%. In the foreign exchange and commodities market, safe-haven demand and favorable economic data drove the dollar index to rise for five consecutive days this week, reaching a seven-week high, while non-U.S. currencies fell broadly, with the euro down 1.8% against the dollar for the week and the pound down 2%. The robust employment data eliminated expectations for a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November, leading to a rebound in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, which put continuous pressure on gold prices, with spot gold declining 0.5% for the week, ending a three-week streak of gains. The market continues to worry about the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East leading to supply disruptions, with oil prices rising for five consecutive days, and Brent crude increasing over 9% for the week.This week, the market focus is mainly on the release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, the publication of U.S. inflation data for September, and earnings reports from major banks, which will provide important economic clues for the market. Additionally, attention should be paid to the developments in the Middle East situation. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, commodities like gold, and foreign exchange. Recently, it launched a USDT stablecoin wealth management product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing investors with a potential safe-haven option. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

ChainCatcher news, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting released on Wednesday show that at the meeting on July 30-31, "the vast majority of participants" believed that if the data continued to meet expectations, it might be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting. They also noted that "many" Federal Reserve officials considered the stance on interest rates to be restrictive, and "some participants" believed that keeping interest rates unchanged amid ongoing inflationary pressures would mean that monetary policy would increasingly weigh on economic activity.The minutes also indicated that although all Federal Reserve officials agreed to keep interest rates steady in July, "several" policymakers stated that the rise in the unemployment rate and progress in reducing inflation "provided a reasonable justification for lowering the target range by 25 basis points at this meeting, or that they might have voted in favor of a rate cut." The vast majority indicated that if economic data continued to meet expectations, a rate cut might be appropriate at the next meeting. Regarding the inflation outlook, participants assessed that recent data had strengthened their confidence in inflation's continued progress toward 2%. Almost all participants believed that the factors contributing to the recent slowdown in inflation could continue to exert downward pressure on inflation in the coming months.

ChainCatcher news, according to Caixin, the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes show that the vast majority of officials believe that U.S. economic growth is gradually cooling, and most participants consider the current policy stance to be restrictive. The Federal Reserve is waiting for "more information" to gain confidence in cutting interest rates. Some participants indicated that policy should be ready to respond to unexpected economic weakness at any time, and several Federal Reserve officials stated that if demand weakens, the unemployment rate may rise.Several participants noted that if inflation remains at a high level or rises further, it may be necessary to raise interest rates.In addition, Federal Reserve spokesperson Nick Timiraos stated that the meeting minutes suggest they are unlikely to cut interest rates at the meeting later this month.

ChainCatcher news, according to a report by Wall Street News, the minutes from the Federal Reserve's March monetary policy meeting show that the participating Fed officials generally believe that recent data has not strengthened their confidence in inflation falling to target, and inflation is expected to decline along a generally uneven path; participants mentioned that geopolitical risks could push up inflation, and the U.S. commercial real estate market may pose economic downside risks; the vast majority of participants believe that starting to slow down the balance sheet reduction "soon" is a prudent move; participants believe that slowing down the balance sheet reduction does not mean a decrease in the final reduction amount and will not affect the monetary policy stance; all agreed to reduce the monthly balance sheet reduction scale by about half, with the MBS reduction cap unchanged and the U.S. Treasury reduction cap lowered. The "New Federal Reserve News Agency" stated that the Federal Reserve is prepared to "soon" slow down the balance sheet reduction, and the monthly U.S. Treasury reduction scale may decrease.In addition, according to Jiemian News, U.S. President Biden stated during a joint press conference with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at the White House on April 10 local time that he stands by his prediction of interest rate cuts, which may be delayed by a month, with one rate cut expected before the end of the year.

ChainCatcher news, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes show that Fed staff maintain their forecast of a "mild" recession in 2023. Almost all officials expect more interest rate hikes in 2023. Those in favor of rate increases point out that the labor market is very tight, economic momentum exceeds expectations, and there is no evidence that inflation will gradually return to the 2% target.