ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data, the Federal Reserve's "mouthpiece," Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos commented on the Fed's interest rate decision in November: "The Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, but released more uncertainty about the pace of further rate cuts. The Fed is still trying to prevent the significant rate hikes of the past two and a half years from dragging down the economy. Within a similar timeframe, investors in the interest rate futures market have continuously lowered their expectations for the Fed's rate cuts over the next year.""According to Citibank, they now believe the Fed will lower rates to around 3.6% by 2026, compared to their estimate of 2.8% in September. Officials are trying to bring rates back to a more 'normal' or 'neutral' level, which neither stimulates nor slows economic growth, but they do not know what a normal rate is. Policies that promote economic activity or prices will also lead officials to conclude that they should maintain a moderately restrictive rate stance. This means they will keep rates slightly above normal or neutral levels."

ChainCatcher news, "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that at last month's meeting, there was a divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding the magnitude of interest rate cuts. The vast majority supported a larger cut of 50 basis points, which was ultimately approved, while others favored a smaller cut of 25 basis points.The released minutes revealed discussions on why officials chose to start with a bolder 50 basis point cut, marking the first rate reduction since 2020. The decision to lower the rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% was supported by 11 of the 12 members of the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee. One policymaker opposed this decision, advocating for a smaller reduction.The minutes stated that those in favor of a larger cut "generally believed that this adjustment in monetary policy stance would begin to better align it with recent inflation and labor market indicators." Some of these officials felt that a 25 basis point cut at the last meeting at the end of July was "reasonable," and recent data only confirmed the rationale for the rate cut.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, "Fed's mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that stronger housing inflation is driving core inflation increases that are stronger than expected, which reduces the likelihood of the Fed further cutting rates by 50 basis points at next week's meeting.Officials had previously hinted that they were prepared to cut rates at this meeting, and the CPI data released on Wednesday would not change that. However, some officials have not completely ruled out the possibility of a larger rate cut, rather than the traditional 25 basis points cut.

ChainCatcher news, "Fed's mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that economists providing detailed inflation forecasts expect the CPI in August to be relatively mild, just like in July.The median forecast shows that the core CPI will increase by 0.21% month-on-month, which will keep the 12-month inflation rate at 3.2%. The overall CPI is expected to slow down to 2.5%. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that the non-farm payroll report could provide a clear signal regarding the magnitude of the Federal Reserve's first rate cut, whether it be 25 basis points or 50 basis points, with market pricing immediately rising to 90%. However, this non-farm payroll report did not adequately address this issue, and currently, the market pricing for a 25 or 50 basis point cut is "split down the middle."Overall, the non-farm data has not deteriorated enough to shift the baseline expectation to a 50 basis point cut, but considering the revised data, it is still insufficient to convincingly dispel speculation about a larger rate cut.

ChainCatcher news, Federal Reserve mouthpiece Nick Timiraos: Friday is exactly the last day before Federal Reserve officials enter the pre-meeting blackout period. Federal Reserve's Williams and Governor Waller are scheduled to speak after the employment report is released, which is the last opportunity to set expectations for the upcoming meeting. With economic growth and inflation slowing, it is more reasonable for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates from the current level of around 5.3% to about 4.5%. If there are no signs that the weak employment in July will persist into August, some Federal Reserve officials may resist a significant rate cut of 50 basis points. However, officials who were open to rate cuts at the July meeting may support a 50 basis point cut in September if the unemployment rate rises again and job growth slows further, as they will receive broader support. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos recently wrote that Federal Reserve officials are expected to modify their statements this week, hinting at a greater likelihood of interest rate cuts in September.Seemingly trivial changes in wording will have a significant impact on the prospects for a rate cut in September. Acknowledging recent improvements in inflation and a more balanced risk outlook, as well as any changes in forward guidance, will lay the groundwork for Powell's press conference. As for why there won't be a rate cut this week, aside from the benefits of a July cut, most Federal Reserve officials have stated that a rate cut is not yet necessary.Regarding the short-term outlook, the Federal Reserve is facing an awkward and complex situation: the two-day policy meeting in November will be held the day after the presidential election. While the Fed has made policy adjustments before and after elections in the past, officials are trying to maintain a non-political stance in their decision-making process. This will make their public communication appear clearer, more predictable, and more thoughtful.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted that, given inflation has begun to decline and the labor market shows signs of cooling, the Fed is paying more attention to when to cut interest rates. "High inflation is not the only risk we face," Powell said in remarks prepared for a speech to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday morning. Powell noted that the economy has made "considerable progress" in reducing inflation, and the job market looks "strong, but not overheating," similar to pre-pandemic levels. However, he made little change to expectations about when the central bank might begin to cut rates, stating that it would "continue to decide at each meeting."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, "Fed's mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that today's PCE results have been widely anticipated for two weeks and are expected not to change the Fed's recent "wait-and-see" attitude.