ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, analysts at the Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets stated that the Federal Reserve's meeting in January seems unlikely to change the market narrative.The analysts mentioned in a report that the market has largely priced in the expectation of a pause in interest rate hikes during most of the inter-meeting period, and Federal Reserve spokespeople have not attempted to counter this.However, they indicated that even if the Federal Reserve pauses rate cuts, it will almost certainly maintain a bias towards lowering rates. This is generally consistent with current market pricing, although the Royal Bank of Canada's forecast is that there will be no further rate cuts this year. They noted that without the latest forecasts, any potential market reaction may depend on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's press conference.

ChainCatcher News: At 3 AM Beijing time on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce its last interest rate decision of the year. According to futures contracts, the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to cut the benchmark interest rate by another 25 basis points this week. This move will bring the federal funds rate to a target range of 4.25% to 4.5%, a full percentage point lower than when rate cuts began in September.Vincent Reinhart, chief economist at BNY Mellon and former director of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Affairs Division, believes, "Clearly, the Federal Reserve is in a bind. For officials, unless they are very certain about what changes in the political economy will occur, they cannot really change their forecasts to respond to those changes. At the press conference, the most concerning idea is the thought of skipping a rate cut. So I think, in this regard, it will be a hawkish cut. (Only) as (Trump's) policies actually take effect, the Federal Reserve may further update its forecasts." (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that the last Federal Reserve meeting of 2024 is approaching, and a 25 basis point rate cut is expected. However, as U.S. inflation remains above the 2% target and the labor market continues to be strong, the statement and dot plot from this meeting may carry a hawkish tone.QCP Asia predicts three rate cuts in 2025, but the Federal Reserve may take a cautious approach to accelerating the pace of rate cuts. In terms of the market, QCP notes that liquidity across various markets is gradually declining, which could trigger price gaps and large-scale liquidations. Technical analysis shows that the Bitcoin daily chart has formed an Evening Star pattern and displays bearish divergence signals.Nevertheless, considering that Trump may return to the White House in 2025 and other favorable factors, QCP advises investors to remain calm during market corrections and not to easily close their positions.

ChainCatcher news, Singaporean crypto investment firm QCP Capital stated today that earlier in the Asian session, Bitcoin surged past $106,500, reaching another milestone. In the past 12 hours, the total amount of short liquidations reached approximately $151 million, driving this rally, as the weekend market lacked liquidity and traders became overly complacent (the funding rate on Deribit briefly turned negative), leading to a squeeze on short positions in the market. The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio reached an all-time high during this wave, further highlighting Bitcoin's status as "digital gold" and solidifying its position as a more popular store of value than traditional gold.The inclusion of MicroStrategy in the Nasdaq 100 index further boosted market sentiment. Michael Saylor hinted that even if the spot price exceeds $100,000, the company may continue to purchase Bitcoin. This inclusion could attract passive capital into MicroStrategy's stock, thereby indirectly making it easier for the company to raise funds to buy Bitcoin. This week's Federal Reserve meeting seems to be merely background noise for Bitcoin, as its movements remain firmly driven by market sentiment. Although the likelihood is low, if the Federal Reserve and Powell take an extremely dovish stance, it could still provide support for further increases in Bitcoin.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Musalem stated that there may be a pause in interest rate cuts at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.

ChainCatcher news, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes show that some participants indicated that if inflation remains high, the Fed may pause its easing policy and keep the policy rate at a restrictive level. If the labor market weakens or economic activity stumbles, easing policies may accelerate. Many participants at the Fed's meeting on November 6-7 expressed that the uncertainty around the neutral interest rate level makes it appropriate to gradually reduce policy restrictions.

ChainCatcher news, affected by the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States (Thursday), some economic data and events in the U.S. will be released earlier.In terms of data, the number of initial jobless claims and the revised GDP for the third quarter will be released earlier at 21:30 Beijing time on November 27 (Wednesday), and the monthly PCE inflation data will be released earlier at 23:00 Beijing time on November 27 (Wednesday).In terms of events, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's November monetary policy meeting will be released earlier at 03:00 Beijing time on November 27 (Wednesday).

ChainCatcher news reports that according to 4E monitoring, last Friday, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising nearly 1%, reaching a historic high. The S&P 500 index rose by 0.35%, marking five consecutive trading days of gains, while the Nasdaq increased by 0.16%. Over the week, the Dow accumulated a 2% increase, and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose by 1.7%. As the "Trump Cabinet 2.0" gradually takes shape, the market is generally optimistic about the implementation of Trump's tax cuts and deregulation policies.Cryptocurrencies showed an upward trend last week, with the market sentiment index remaining in the greed phase, indicating investors' optimistic expectations for future price movements. As BTC continues to hit new highs approaching $100,000, market activity has significantly increased, and altcoins generally saw substantial gains following the market trend, while the popularity of meme projects declined last week.In the forex commodities sector, the U.S. dollar index rose nearly 1% last week, surpassing the 108 mark and reaching a two-year high. The bleak economic outlook for the Eurozone has dampened oil demand expectations, but due to the escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine, oil prices rose about 6% last week, marking the best performance in two months. Recent trends in gold have been supported by strong risk aversion and reduced expectations for a Fed rate cut in December, with gold prices rising for five consecutive days last week, accumulating a 5.7% increase, the largest weekly gain in nearly two years.After Trump's victory in the presidential election, the Fed's stance on rate cuts has become increasingly cautious. Last week, a series of hawkish comments from Fed officials cast a shadow over the highly anticipated prospect of a Fed rate cut in December. The minutes from the Fed's November meeting and the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the PCE price index, will be released on Tuesday and Wednesday local time, respectively, which may stir market waves. Currently, investors expect the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December to be slightly above 50%. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, gold commodities, and forex, recently launching a USDT stablecoin wealth management product with an annualized return of 5.5%, providing investors with potential hedging options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets reasonably.

ChainCatcher news, "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that at last month's meeting, there was a divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding the magnitude of interest rate cuts. The vast majority supported a larger cut of 50 basis points, which was ultimately approved, while others favored a smaller cut of 25 basis points.The released minutes revealed discussions on why officials chose to start with a bolder 50 basis point cut, marking the first rate reduction since 2020. The decision to lower the rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% was supported by 11 of the 12 members of the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee. One policymaker opposed this decision, advocating for a smaller reduction.The minutes stated that those in favor of a larger cut "generally believed that this adjustment in monetary policy stance would begin to better align it with recent inflation and labor market indicators." Some of these officials felt that a 25 basis point cut at the last meeting at the end of July was "reasonable," and recent data only confirmed the rationale for the rate cut.

ChainCatcher news, BBH analysts stated in a report that the Federal Reserve meeting minutes to be released tonight may show that some Fed officials opposed a 50 basis point rate cut before being persuaded to vote in favor of the majority. At the meeting on September 18, which initiated the monetary easing policy, Fed Governor Bowman was the only dissenting voice, voting for a 25 basis point cut. Since then, the Fed has hinted at another 25 basis point cut next month, which has provided some support for the dollar. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, on September 15 local time, Trump was attacked again, fortunately without injury. According to 4E Exchange observations, after the incident, U.S. stock index futures, the dollar, and the cryptocurrency market remained relatively stable. Polymarket data shows that Harris's probability of winning the presidential election has slightly decreased by 1%, currently at 50%, still slightly higher than Trump's 49%.The incident occurred during a low-volume weekend, with the market performing relatively calmly, but it may trigger volatility in the foreign exchange market. The current focus of the market remains on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for September 17-18.According to the latest updates, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut has risen to 45%, after briefly dropping to single digits earlier last week. U.S. stocks rose for five consecutive days last week, with the S&P 500 up a cumulative 4.02%, just 0.7% away from its all-time high; the Nasdaq rose a cumulative 5.95%; and the Dow Jones increased by 2.6%, just about 0.5% away from its previous high.4E Exchange is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, bulk gold, and foreign exchange, and is a platinum sponsor for Token2049 in 2024. With the Federal Reserve meeting approaching, 4E reminds you to be aware of market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

ChainCatcher message, the encrypted derivatives platform Cega pointed out in its latest market insight report that there were fewer market events this week, but investors are generally focused on the next Federal Reserve meeting and the anticipated interest rate cuts.Cega expects that the market will remain range-bound in the coming weeks. Despite the calm in the market, BTC volatility is still slightly above the one-year average.

ChainCatcher news, the fiercely competitive U.S. presidential election has gradually faded from public view, and investors' attention is focused on the Federal Reserve meeting on September 18. Any policy misstep could disrupt a market already on edge due to signs of slowing economic growth.Rocky Fishman, founder of the derivatives analysis firm Asym 500, stated, "The main focus of the market recently may be the Federal Reserve and the beginning of the rate-cutting cycle. Although stock options reflect higher risks around the election, the actual trading volume of election-related expiring stocks has remained limited."Traders are also awaiting the debate between Harris and Trump on Tuesday to further determine their bets on who will win the election. Investors will analyze the candidates' positions on issues such as tariffs, immigration policy, and corporate taxes.John Divine, head of over-the-counter trading at digital asset trading and technology company BlockFills, noted that Bitcoin's short-term positioning is unusually bleak.He said, "The current bet is bearish before October 25, with a slight bullish outlook before the election. When looking at November, we start to see the buy price for call options exceed that of put options, but that is not the case, which is quite shocking to me and highlights the current level of panic in the market."Divine added that while Trump is more favored in the crypto market, the lines of who supports the crypto industry are becoming increasingly blurred. "I think the market is not entirely trading based on who will win the November election. More importantly, they are using the event to drive narratives that align with the current bearish stance."

ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live researcher Adam posted on social media that last week's macro data did not have much impact. Next Thursday is the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, and a 25 basis point rate cut has once again become a major point of discussion. The cryptocurrency market is very weak, with BTC dropping nearly 10% since September, and market confidence is low, putting the market in an oversold state.This week's major events:On Tuesday, September 10, Apple will hold a new product launch event;On Wednesday, September 11, the U.S. August CPI will be released, and U.S. presidential candidates Harris and Trump will debate on ABC News;On Thursday, September 12, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week will be announced, and the European Central Bank will release its interest rate decision;On Friday, September 13, the U.S. September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be released.Cryptocurrency market outlook: The market is weak, and investor confidence is severely lacking. Implied volatility (IV) across major maturities has rebounded, with a more noticeable rebound in the short to medium term. Options trading is focused on next week's Federal Reserve interest rate meeting. Currently, short to medium term IV is still at a year-to-date low, making it a good time to construct bearish ratio spreads based on market timing.

ChainCatcher news, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting released on Wednesday show that at the meeting on July 30-31, "the vast majority of participants" believed that if the data continued to meet expectations, it might be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting. They also noted that "many" Federal Reserve officials considered the stance on interest rates to be restrictive, and "some participants" believed that keeping interest rates unchanged amid ongoing inflationary pressures would mean that monetary policy would increasingly weigh on economic activity.The minutes also indicated that although all Federal Reserve officials agreed to keep interest rates steady in July, "several" policymakers stated that the rise in the unemployment rate and progress in reducing inflation "provided a reasonable justification for lowering the target range by 25 basis points at this meeting, or that they might have voted in favor of a rate cut." The vast majority indicated that if economic data continued to meet expectations, a rate cut might be appropriate at the next meeting. Regarding the inflation outlook, participants assessed that recent data had strengthened their confidence in inflation's continued progress toward 2%. Almost all participants believed that the factors contributing to the recent slowdown in inflation could continue to exert downward pressure on inflation in the coming months.

ChainCatcher news, Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos posted on X platform that the employment report for June will make the July Federal Reserve meeting more interesting, as there may be a real debate about whether to cut interest rates at the next meeting (in September) for the first time this year.

ChainCatcher news, according to Caixin, the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes show that the vast majority of officials believe that U.S. economic growth is gradually cooling, and most participants consider the current policy stance to be restrictive. The Federal Reserve is waiting for "more information" to gain confidence in cutting interest rates. Some participants indicated that policy should be ready to respond to unexpected economic weakness at any time, and several Federal Reserve officials stated that if demand weakens, the unemployment rate may rise.Several participants noted that if inflation remains at a high level or rises further, it may be necessary to raise interest rates.In addition, Federal Reserve spokesperson Nick Timiraos stated that the meeting minutes suggest they are unlikely to cut interest rates at the meeting later this month.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi news, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated, "We view today's CPI report as progress, which enhances our confidence. However, we will not specify how much is needed to begin cutting rates. Our meetings have preliminarily incorporated today's CPI data."

ChainCatcher news, according to a report by Wall Street News, the minutes from the Federal Reserve's March monetary policy meeting show that the participating Fed officials generally believe that recent data has not strengthened their confidence in inflation falling to target, and inflation is expected to decline along a generally uneven path; participants mentioned that geopolitical risks could push up inflation, and the U.S. commercial real estate market may pose economic downside risks; the vast majority of participants believe that starting to slow down the balance sheet reduction "soon" is a prudent move; participants believe that slowing down the balance sheet reduction does not mean a decrease in the final reduction amount and will not affect the monetary policy stance; all agreed to reduce the monthly balance sheet reduction scale by about half, with the MBS reduction cap unchanged and the U.S. Treasury reduction cap lowered. The "New Federal Reserve News Agency" stated that the Federal Reserve is prepared to "soon" slow down the balance sheet reduction, and the monthly U.S. Treasury reduction scale may decrease.In addition, according to Jiemian News, U.S. President Biden stated during a joint press conference with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at the White House on April 10 local time that he stands by his prediction of interest rate cuts, which may be delayed by a month, with one rate cut expected before the end of the year.

ChainCatcher news, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes show that Fed staff maintain their forecast of a "mild" recession in 2023. Almost all officials expect more interest rate hikes in 2023. Those in favor of rate increases point out that the labor market is very tight, economic momentum exceeds expectations, and there is no evidence that inflation will gradually return to the 2% target.