ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data reports, here are the key points the market will focus on in the coming week (all times are in Beijing time):Monday 08:00, Federal Reserve Governor Waller will speak on the economic outlook at the 2025 Bank of Korea International Conference;Tuesday 00:45, 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a Q&A session;Tuesday 01:00, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver opening remarks at an event;Wednesday 00:45, 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a Q&A session;Wednesday 20:30, 2027 FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed President Bostic, along with Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, will attend the "Fed Listens" event;Thursday 02:00, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions;Friday 00:00, Federal Reserve Governor Cook will speak at the New York Economic Club;Friday 01:30, 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Harker will speak on the economic outlook;Friday 20:30, the U.S. will announce the May unemployment rate, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for May, and the year-on-year/month-on-month data for average hourly earnings in May.

According to CCTV News, on May 28 local time, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on May 6-7. The minutes indicate that the Federal Reserve agreed to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5%. Participants unanimously agreed that when considering the magnitude and timing of further adjustments to the federal funds rate target range, the committee would carefully assess subsequent data, the evolving outlook, and risk balance. The minutes state that in evaluating the appropriate monetary policy stance, the committee will continue to monitor the impact of future information on the economic outlook. If risks emerge that could hinder the committee's goals, they will be prepared to adjust the monetary policy stance as appropriate. Participants noted that their assessment would consider a wide range of information, including labor market conditions, inflation pressures and expectations, as well as developments in financial and international situations.The committee's assessment indicated that uncertainty regarding the economic outlook has further intensified, with rising risks of increased unemployment and inflation. Participants pointed out that if inflation persists while economic growth and employment prospects weaken, the committee may face difficult trade-offs. The ultimate adjustment of government policies and their impact on the economy are highly uncertain. Against this backdrop, all participants agreed that maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% is appropriate. In considering the monetary policy outlook, participants unanimously agreed that given the robust economic growth and labor market, the committee is fully capable of waiting for a clearer outlook on inflation and economic activity. It is appropriate to adopt a cautious approach until the net economic effects of a series of government policy adjustments become clearer.Additionally, according to Jinshi News, the Federal Reserve minutes noted that the benchmark policy path implied by option prices (representing the mainstream market expectations) slightly shifted downward during this period, suggesting a potential rate cut of 1 to 2 times (25 basis points each) by the end of the year.

ChainCatcher message, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes show that participants unanimously believe that the uncertainty regarding the economic outlook has increased, and that a cautious monetary policy is appropriate.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, SignatureFD analyst Tony Welch stated that the decline in U.S. Treasury yields after the Federal Reserve meeting may indicate that investors are concerned that tightening monetary policy will impact the economy. The economy is currently slowing down, and implementing tighter monetary policy over a longer period will certainly be a disadvantage. Trump's tariffs are influencing the Fed's thinking, as the FOMC's statement mentioned "trade" right from the start. Powell will use the word "uncertainty" multiple times during the press conference.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin10 data reports, the U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to a nearly 5-year low in April, as concerns over tariffs intensified, dragging down economic prospects. The U.S. Conference Board data shows that the Consumer Confidence Index dropped by 7.9 points in April to 86.0, the lowest level since May 2020.Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist at the World Federation of Large Enterprises Global Indicators, stated: "Consumer confidence has declined for the fifth consecutive month in April, reaching its lowest level since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic." The U.S. GDP data, expected to be released tomorrow, is anticipated to show a significant slowdown in economic growth in the first quarter, as businesses rush to import goods to avoid rising costs from tariffs, leading to a surge in imports. Consumer spending may also slow significantly, as high inflation and concerns about the economic impact of tariffs prompt some households to cut back on spending to preserve savings.

ChainCatcher message, the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes show that most participants indicated that the inflation impact from various factors may be more persistent than they had expected. All attendees agreed that given the significant uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, it is appropriate to maintain interest rates unchanged. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated in his keynote speech on the economic outlook: "I feel that the Federal Reserve does not need to rush to act. I intend to complete my full term, and I actually enjoy this job very much. There will be important fiscal legislation and regulatory changes, and many businesses have indicated that they are waiting for clear guidance to make decisions."

ChainCatcher Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech on the economic outlook, stating: "We face a highly uncertain outlook. It will be very difficult to assess the economic impact of tariffs before we have greater certainty about the details. While uncertainty remains high, it is now clear that the magnitude of the tariff increases will be significantly greater than expected. The economic impacts may also be so, including higher inflation and slower growth. The extent and duration of these impacts remain uncertain.We will continue to closely monitor the upcoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. We are prepared to wait for clearer signals before considering adjustments to our policy stance. It is still too early to say what the appropriate path for monetary policy is."

ChainCatcher message, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the unemployment rate for March and the seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll data for March at 20:30 Beijing time tonight.In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a keynote speech on the economic outlook at 23:25 tonight.

ChainCatcher news, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: It remains to be seen how uncertainty will affect the economic outlook.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell faces a tricky task this week, needing to assure investors that the economic fundamentals remain solid while also conveying that policymakers are ready to intervene if necessary during Thursday's interest rate decision. As Powell praises the resilience of the U.S. economy, it coincides with Trump rapidly escalating the trade war, causing unease and leading to a significant decline in U.S. stocks over the past month. With growing concerns about the economic outlook, consumer confidence is declining, and bond yields are also falling. Dominic Konstam, head of U.S. macro strategy at Mizuho Securities, stated, "Powell needs to send some signal that they are paying attention to the stock market. Officials cannot ignore the recent declines."Economists widely expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice this year. Some investors warn that if officials continue to signal only two rate cuts by 2025, it becomes even more necessary for the Fed chairman to emphasize that the Fed is willing to adjust borrowing costs if there are issues in the labor market. James Ace, a portfolio manager at Marlborough Investment Management, said, "The Fed may marginally improve or worsen the situation. But clearly, they cannot fully reassure the market, as the blow to market sentiment mainly comes from the White House." Aside from issuing escalating and changing tariff threats to trading partners, the Trump administration has not taken many measures to mitigate the risk of economic recession.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, several important economic data will be released next week, among which the U.S. February CPI data is the most anticipated by the market. On Wednesday, the U.S. February unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate, seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month rate, seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month rate, and unadjusted core CPI year-on-year rate will be announced. These data will directly impact the Federal Reserve's policy decisions at the meeting on March 18-19.In addition, this week there will also be important events such as U.S. President Trump meeting with American tech leaders, including executives from HP, Intel, IBM, and Qualcomm, as well as the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision and a speech by European Central Bank President Lagarde.

ChainCatcher news, according to Caixin, Federal Reserve's Bostic stated that confidence in the economic outlook for 2025 has decreased. It is difficult to incorporate all potential policy changes into the economic outlook; unexpected inflation developments are not expected to follow a linear trajectory.The Federal Reserve did not significantly cut interest rates last year, and the policy remains somewhat restrictive; there is satisfaction with pausing rate cuts to observe economic developments. The Federal Reserve is approaching the threshold level of its balance sheet, with the debt ceiling being a factor in determining this; there is a desire to regularly monitor the balance sheet to ensure that asset shrinkage does not become excessive.

ChainCatcher news, UBS Group's chief economist Arend Kapteyn stated that tariffs are the biggest risk facing the global economic outlook. UBS predicts that global economic growth will slow from about 3.2% in 2024 to 2.9% this year. If Trump continues to implement the tariff policies he proposed during his campaign, it could bring "the level of trade restrictions in the U.S. back to levels we haven't seen since the mid-1930s." He added, "If these tariffs are really imposed, there could be a lot of additional downside risks to our forecasts." However, Kapteyn is skeptical about whether global tariffs will be implemented, as it is legally complicated.

ChainCatcher news, the South Korean Finance Minister stated that the economic outlook has been inevitably downgraded this year and that severe measures will be taken against any drastic foreign exchange fluctuations. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, this week, the Federal Reserve finally confirmed the long-anticipated "pivot" by the market. The central bank's statement and update on economic forecasts this week had a significant impact on the market. Market participants currently expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by about 40 basis points by December 2025, leading to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields. Earlier this week, Bitcoin fell from its historical high, and on Friday during the European session, Bitcoin continued its downward trend, approaching $95,000 at one point. Earlier, Bitcoin had just set a new historical high of over $108,000, and this round of decline in the crypto market has had a greater impact on altcoins such as Ethereum and Dogecoin.Additionally, U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that directly invest in Bitcoin also ended a 15-day streak of inflows this week, recording an outflow of $680 million, highlighting the shift in market sentiment.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Citigroup's economist team elaborated on their views for 2025, expecting that companies will shift from reducing hiring to outright layoffs. This, in turn, will lead to a decline in consumer spending and business investment. They stated that even if their view on layoffs is incorrect, the slowdown in income growth that comes with the hiring slowdown still poses risks to spending. A loose labor market will alleviate inflationary pressures in the service sector, while weak global conditions will suppress commodity prices.They indicated that this will lead the Federal Reserve to take aggressive actions, expecting a 25 basis point rate cut at every meeting until July next year, bringing the federal funds rate down to between 3% and 3.25%. Meanwhile, market expectations anticipate that the federal funds rate will reach around 4% by then.Economists noted that if long-term interest rates decline, it will help the severely impacted real estate and manufacturing sectors, but the effect will not be significant. They stated, "If the labor market develops as we expect, with the unemployment rate about to rise sharply, then the weakness in consumer health will offset any demand boost from lower interest rates."

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve Governor Cook stated that the scale and timing of interest rate cuts will depend on the upcoming data, economic outlook, and the balance of risks; the policy is not predetermined. The interest rate cuts so far are an important step in easing policy restrictions.

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: For December, we will focus on the upcoming data and how this data will affect the economic outlook.

ChainCatcher news, Moody's analyst Stefan Angrick stated that the Bank of Japan's economic outlook is relatively hawkish. The forecasts for economic growth and inflation indicate that the bank is still likely to raise interest rates in the near future. Aside from a slight upward revision of the growth forecast for fiscal year 2025 and a slight downward revision of the inflation forecast, these predictions have changed little.Angrick stated, "The Bank of Japan believes that the Japanese economy has moderately recovered, with growth above the potential growth rate." He added that the Bank of Japan indicated that consumption is on a "moderate growth trend," which differs from the "resilience" wording used in July. He noted that these cautiously optimistic assessments contradict the poor data from the past year. "The Japanese economy is stagnating, and evidence of demand-driven price pressures remains scant."