ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Daly stated that monetary policy needs to remain tight until there is sustained progress on inflation. She pointed out that the current policy is in good shape and can be adjusted flexibly if necessary, but caution is needed before making the next policy adjustment.Regarding the inflation situation, Daly mentioned that inflation is gradually declining, but the process is relatively volatile. When asked whether there will be further interest rate cuts within the year, she stated that "the world is full of uncertainties," and more information is needed to make a decision, while also paying attention to the labor market conditions. Furthermore, since the specific scope, scale, and implementation timeline of the new U.S. government's policies are still unclear, it is not advisable to rush into decisions that may lead to regret.

ChainCatcher News: Pan Gongsheng, the Governor of the People's Bank of China, was invited to attend the seminar on emerging market economies co-hosted by the International Monetary Fund and Saudi Arabia, where he delivered a keynote speech.Pan Gongsheng pointed out that in 2024, China's economy will continue to recover and improve, achieving an annual economic growth target of 5%. Especially since late September last year, the Chinese government has introduced a package of incremental policies that effectively boosted social confidence and led to a significant economic rebound.Going forward, the Chinese government will implement a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, strengthen the counter-cyclical adjustment of macroeconomic policies, continuously promote the transformation of China's economic growth model, and consolidate and enhance the momentum of economic recovery and improvement.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Standard Chartered Bank analysis indicates that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may cut interest rates by 50 basis points at the meeting on February 19, and an unexpected outcome is unlikely.The central bank has communicated well regarding this move, and we believe the likelihood of any surprises in either direction is very low. On the risk side, we think that if economic data remains sluggish, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may adopt a more aggressive approach to easing monetary policy in the second quarter (compared to a single rate cut of 25 basis points) in order to restore interest rates to neutral (2.5-3.5%) more quickly.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman spoke about the economic outlook: inflation is expected to decline, but there are still upside risks, and stronger confidence in the decline of inflation is needed before any further rate cuts. Patience in waiting for rate cuts will help to better understand the impact of government policies.The labor market has not tightened due to a slowdown in hiring, but the unemployment rate remains below the expected level of full employment, and wage growth has exceeded levels consistent with the Federal Reserve's inflation target. Currently, the U.S. economy remains strong, with economic activity achieving robust growth and the labor market nearing full employment. Core inflation levels are still slightly high, but they seem to have returned to a downward trajectory. My basic expectation is that core inflation will further slow down this year. Monetary policy is not on a preset path.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman and current Pimco Global Economic Advisor Clarida wrote an article reviewing his experiences during Trump's first term from 2018 to 2019, and analyzed the challenges the Federal Reserve may face in 2025.Although inflation expectations currently appear stable, tariff policies may fall short of expectations and their uncertainty could pose a drag on economic growth, potentially leading to an unexpected significant decline in inflation, which in turn would affect monetary policy decisions.

ChainCatcher News, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the Bank of Japan will appropriately implement monetary policy to achieve the 2% inflation target.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, an institution's Federal Reserve sentiment model rates Powell's remarks as slightly hawkish, but within a neutral range.Analysts Jersey and Hoffman stated that the recent attitude of Federal Reserve spokespeople indicates that the Fed will maintain a "wait-and-see" policy stance in the upcoming meetings, and Powell is unlikely to change this position.They said, "We are unlikely to gain any new information or insights regarding the Fed's response function from today's congressional testimony, as the Fed is likely to remain on hold at least until the next meeting, and the questions from the banking committee are more inclined towards political statements rather than monetary policy issues."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will attend the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs hearing today at 23:00 Beijing time to deliver his semiannual monetary policy testimony. Trump's proposals on trade, taxes, immigration, and regulation have increased uncertainty in the U.S. economy, complicating the Fed's efforts to reduce inflation and maintain a healthy labor market.Federal Reserve Vice Chairman for Supervision Quarles announced his resignation last month, providing an opportunity for Trump to appoint new regulators. Since 2021, the Fed has failed to achieve its 2% inflation target, making inflation a key issue in the 2024 presidential election.Sarah Binder of the Brookings Institution in Washington stated that the hearing will be very tense. Although the Fed usually avoids partisan disputes, it must gain public support. Trump criticized the Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged but later stated that he does not intend to intervene.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Peel Hunt senior economist Kallum Pickering stated in a report that the Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates on Thursday and may signal another rate cut in March.Pickering noted that the Bank of England may keep its monetary policy guidance unchanged, cutting rates once per quarter. He stated, "However, the risk leans towards policymakers indicating their willingness to respond more forcefully to economic weakness."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, ECB board member Lane stated that we are confident that inflation will stabilize at target levels as expected, and that monetary policy will no longer be restrictive in the near future, which I estimate will be during the spring and summer.

ChainCatcher message, important macro data overview for next week:January 30, 3:00 AM: U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision (upper limit) as of January 29, expected 4.50%, previous 4.50%;January 30, 3:30 AM: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell holds a monetary policy press conference;January 30, 9:15 PM: Eurozone ECB deposit facility rate as of January 30, expected 2.75%, previous 3.00%;January 30, 9:45 PM: ECB President Lagarde holds a monetary policy press conference;January 30, 9:30 PM: U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending January 25 (in ten thousand), expected 22, previous 22.3;January 31, 9:30 PM: U.S. December core PCE price index year-on-year, expected 2.80%, previous 2.80%.

ChainCatcher news, Vice Minister of Finance Liao Min stated that in 2025, there will be an increased effort to coordinate fiscal policy and monetary policy, focusing on enhancing the combination effect and multiplier effect of policies. Through the use of public funds, it will be possible to stimulate more investment from credit funds and social capital, thereby playing a positive role in expanding domestic demand and supporting stable and healthy economic development.

ChainCatcher news, Federal Reserve's Barkin stated that the story in 2025 will focus less on monetary policy and more on economic fundamentals, possibly involving geopolitics. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, despite gold prices hitting new highs and the Federal Reserve continuing to ease monetary policy, investors have sold off gold ETFs for the fourth consecutive year in 2024. Although optimism about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2024 helped gold ETFs rebound slightly, the results of the November U.S. elections ended this new momentum. After Trump won the election, the dollar strengthened, leading to another sell-off of these ETFs, and gold prices fell from historical highs as investors shifted their funds to other areas, including stocks and Bitcoin. During times of political and economic uncertainty, investors typically seek refuge in gold.Meanwhile, the geopolitical risks brought about by the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have prompted central banks in emerging markets, Asian investors, and consumers to purchase physical gold as a means of portfolio diversification and hedging. These factors have led to a decline in demand for gold ETFs. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher message, 1confirmation founder Nick Tomaino posted on the X platform stating: "ETH is the internet's native store of value, with the best monetary policy in the world. The supply of BTC will continue to increase, reaching 21 million by 2140.As the usage of DeFi, stablecoins, NFTs, prediction markets, SocialFi, etc. increases, the supply of ETH decreases, stake ETH, earn yields and HODL."

ChainCatcher news, according to Barron's, as Bitcoin retraced to $94,000 on Christmas Eve, Yuya Hasegawa, an analyst at the Japanese cryptocurrency exchange bitbank, elaborated on three key factors influencing the crypto market in 2025.First, the direction of cryptocurrency policy under the Trump administration will dominate market sentiment. The proposed strategic Bitcoin reserve plan and the appointment of pro-cryptocurrency nominees are expected to directly impact the price trends of mainstream cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, XRP, and Dogecoin.Second, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will continue to affect the crypto market. Hasegawa pointed out that loose monetary policy has historically been favorable for Bitcoin prices, while the opposite would have a negative impact. Although the Federal Reserve has cut rates by 100 basis points this year, Trump's plan to impose tariffs of 10%-20% on all imported goods, with tariffs on Chinese goods potentially reaching 60%, could exacerbate inflationary pressures, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates.Third, the U.S. government debt issue may become a new focus for the market. Hasegawa emphasized that a high-interest-rate environment will increase the burden of government debt. If concerns about debt sustainability arise and the U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve plan is successfully implemented, Bitcoin's safe-haven properties as digital gold will gain more attention, potentially driving its valuation higher.

ChainCatcher news, according to Forbes, economists and financial market professionals indicate that the Federal Reserve is likely to announce a 25 basis point rate cut in the early hours of the 19th, but perhaps more noteworthy is what signal the Fed will send regarding its monetary policy goals for 2025.Currently, economists from the three major investment banks—Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase—predict that the Fed will lower the interest rate from the current range of 4.5%-4.75% by 25 basis points to 4.25%-4.5%. This would bring the rate down to its lowest level since February 2023, a full percentage point lower than the 5.25%-5.5% range from July to September 2023.However, despite the market reaching a clear consensus on this, the Fed will also release its quarterly economic forecasts. This includes each central bank president's expectations for interest rates in 2025. Economists from Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase expect the median forecast to be revised from the previous prediction of four rate cuts of 25 basis points next year to three, with an expected target range of 3.5%-3.75% by the end of 2025. Regardless, it is clear that Americans will need to adapt to higher interest rates for an extended period, as rates are likely to remain above 3% for a long time, a threshold that was never reached from 2009 to 2021.