Citigroup: The U.S. economic outlook is bleak for next year, and the Federal Reserve is expected to aggressively cut interest rates

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Citigroup's economist team elaborated on their views for 2025, expecting that companies will shift from reducing hiring to outright layoffs. This, in turn, will lead to a decline in consumer spending and business investment. They stated that even if their view on layoffs is incorrect, the slowdown in income growth that comes with the hiring slowdown still poses risks to spending. A loose labor market will alleviate inflationary pressures in the service sector, while weak global conditions will suppress commodity prices.

They indicated that this will lead the Federal Reserve to take aggressive actions, expecting a 25 basis point rate cut at every meeting until July next year, bringing the federal funds rate down to between 3% and 3.25%. Meanwhile, market expectations anticipate that the federal funds rate will reach around 4% by then.

Economists noted that if long-term interest rates decline, it will help the severely impacted real estate and manufacturing sectors, but the effect will not be significant. They stated, "If the labor market develops as we expect, with the unemployment rate about to rise sharply, then the weakness in consumer health will offset any demand boost from lower interest rates."