Cryptocurrency Market

Binance Research: The cryptocurrency market will continue to grow in 2025, driven by institutional adoption and the expansion of DeFi, which will promote market prosperity

ChainCatcher message, according to the latest monthly market insights report from Binance Research, the crypto market is expected to continue growing in 2025, driven by accelerated institutional adoption, evolving regulatory frameworks, and the expansion of the DeFi ecosystem.The Binance report emphasizes that Bitcoin's dominance in global assets has increased, and despite a significant pullback in late December last year, the overall market still shows strong fundamentals.December last year was a significant milestone for the cryptocurrency market, as the Federal Reserve decided to reduce the planned interest rate cuts for 2025 from four to two, leading the cryptocurrency market cap to rise to a record $3.91 trillion before falling to $3.41 trillion.This pullback wiped out $500 billion in market cap, but Bitcoin remains firmly in the seventh position among global assets (by market cap), surpassing Saudi Aramco and silver.Bitcoin's market cap grew by 123.4% last year, driven by the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and their subsequent record growth, as well as MicroStrategy's inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index and continued adoption by institutional investors. This year's growth made Bitcoin the second-best performing asset among the top ten global assets, only behind Nvidia.The report points out that speculation around the U.S. potentially adopting Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset further fueled Bitcoin's momentum. As capital shifts from altcoins to Bitcoin, its dominance continues to strengthen, solidifying its position as a leading asset class.Although the market has experienced volatility, Bitcoin's strong fundamentals and the increasing adoption in traditional finance may pave the way for continued growth in 2025.The report indicates that if current trends continue, Bitcoin could challenge higher positions in the global asset rankings, coming closer to gold.The DeFi sector has also witnessed significant growth, with decentralized spot and perpetual contract trading volumes reaching new highs of $326 billion and $356 billion in December, respectively.Hyperliquid is a major driver of this surge, accounting for over 60% of the total trading volume in decentralized perpetual contracts. Meanwhile, lending and liquid staking protocols also set historical highs of $55 billion and $71 billion, respectively.The stablecoin market has undergone a significant shift, with Ethena's USDe surpassing USDS to become the third-largest stablecoin by market cap at $5.9 billion.Additionally, Binance Research highlights the emerging role of AI agents in the crypto ecosystem. Leading AI agent tokens now have a market cap in the billions, with increasing adoption rates in trading and entertainment sectors.Despite adjustments at the end of the year, the report concludes that favorable regulatory developments, rising institutional participation, and technological advancements in DeFi and AI will enable the cryptocurrency market to continue expanding in 2025.

Arthur Hayes: The crypto market may peak in mid-March and then experience a severe correction

ChainCatcher news, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes explained in his latest blog post why he believes the crypto market will peak in mid-March and then experience a significant correction. The article states that previously, in the third quarter of 2022, when the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase tool peaked, Bitcoin hit its bottom; Yellen adjusted the bond strategy, withdrawing over $2 trillion from the RRP to inject liquidity into the market, driving up cryptocurrencies and stocks. In the first quarter of 2025, the market will focus on whether the dollar liquidity can offset the impact of the slow implementation of Trump's policies. If liquidity is sufficient, increasing risk exposure will be a safe choice.The Federal Reserve's factors are secondary in the analysis, with a focus on how the Treasury will respond to the debt ceiling. If politicians hesitate, the Treasury may inject liquidity from the General Account (TGA), creating a positive atmosphere for cryptocurrencies. The Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening policy continues, but the RRP scale is nearly zeroed out, and RRP rates are lowered to reduce attractiveness. This move aims to boost demand for U.S. Treasuries and lay the groundwork for stopping QT and other policies. Yellen revealed that the Treasury expects to take "extraordinary measures" to raise funds in mid-January. When the increase in the debt ceiling will gain political approval tests Trump's support. It is expected that from May to June, the balance of the Treasury's General Account (TGA) will be exhausted, and the market may react in advance. By the end of the first quarter, the total dollar liquidity from the Federal Reserve and the Treasury is expected to be $612 billion. As the default and shutdown crisis approaches, an agreement will be reached to raise the debt ceiling, the Treasury will resume borrowing and replenish the TGA, leading to a decrease in liquidity. After the tax deadline on April 15, the government's financial situation will improve, and liquidity will also decline. If the TGA balance dominates cryptocurrency prices, the market may reach a high point by the end of the first quarter and then decline.Yellen lowered the rate for issuing short-term Treasury bills, causing Powell's strategy to tighten financial conditions to combat inflation to fall short. Although Trump's team may perform poorly in cryptocurrency and corporate legislation, a positive dollar liquidity environment may offset this impact. Hayes stated, "I advise investors to sell in the late first quarter and wait for liquidity conditions to improve in the third quarter. As the Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom, I recommend risk-takers shift to aggressive mode and venture into the decentralized science (DeSci) altcoin space. If things go well, I will reduce baseline positions in March."

Binance Research: After soaring to a historic high of $3.91 trillion in December, the crypto market has retreated, with BTC's annual increase exceeding 123%

According to the "Market Insights for January 2025" report published by Binance Research, the crypto market capitalization soared to a historic high of $3.91 trillion in December 2024, driven by regulatory optimism, institutional adoption, and Bitcoin reaching an all-time high of $108,000. However, as the Federal Reserve reduced its interest rate cut plans for 2025 from four times to two, the market experienced a correction at the end of December, with a market cap evaporation of over $0.5 trillion.Bitcoin's market cap grew by approximately 123.4% for the year, becoming the seventh-largest asset globally, surpassing Saudi Aramco and silver, only behind Nvidia's performance. Key drivers included the approval of spot ETFs, Bitcoin halving, changes in monetary policy, and more crypto-friendly regulatory expectations.Additionally, the market cap of Ethena's USDe has reached $5.9 billion, surpassing DAI to become the third-largest stablecoin, thanks to its high yield and use as collateral on Aave. Decentralized spot and perpetual contract trading volumes reached historic highs of $326 billion and $356 billion in December, respectively, while decentralized perpetual trading volume grew over 370% for the year, primarily driven by Hyperliquid.The TVL in the DeFi sector also hit a new high, with lending protocols and liquid staking protocols reaching $55 billion and $71 billion, respectively. AI agents are gradually becoming an emerging hotspot in the crypto space, with related tokens reaching billions in market cap and an average daily exposure of about 100,000 times, with representative projects including Virtuals and ai16z's Eliza framework, as well as individual agents like aixbt.
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