Cryptocurrency Market

Viewpoint: Japan's core inflation higher than expected sparks discussions on interest rate hikes, which may pose a threat to the cryptocurrency market

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, Japan's latest core inflation data has exceeded market expectations, sparking discussions about the possibility of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raising interest rates, which could impact risk assets including cryptocurrencies. The data shows that Japan's core CPI rose 3% year-on-year in February, down from 3.2% in January but still above the market expectation of 2.9%. Meanwhile, Japan's overall CPI fell from 4% to 3.7%, but still far exceeds the BOJ's target inflation rate of 2%.Since November 2024, Japan's inflation rate has consistently been higher than that of the United States, currently exceeding by nearly 100 basis points, marking the largest gap since 2015. Coupled with the wage pressure from the "Shunto" spring labor negotiations, market expectations for a BOJ interest rate hike have intensified. The anticipation of a rate hike has strengthened the yen, but if the yen appreciates significantly, it may trigger market risk aversion, thereby putting pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.As of the time of writing, the USD/JPY exchange rate is 149.22, having rebounded nearly 300 basis points since March 11, indicating a short-term weakening of the yen. However, the yield spread between U.S. and Japanese 10-year government bonds has narrowed, with Japanese 10-year bond yields maintaining above 1.5% and 30-year bond yields breaking 2.5%, both at multi-decade highs, which may support a stronger yen. The market is focused on the future direction of BOJ policy and its impact on global financial markets.

4E: The market digests the Federal Reserve's decision and refocuses on Trump's tariffs, leading to declines in the US stock and cryptocurrency markets

ChainCatcher news reports that, according to 4E monitoring, after the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, the upward trend of U.S. stocks could not be sustained. Economic uncertainty and Trump's tariff plans cast a shadow, leading to a volatile decline in major U.S. stock indices on Thursday. The S&P 500 fell by 0.2%, the Dow Jones dropped by 0.1%, and the Nasdaq decreased by 0.3%. Large tech stocks saw more declines than gains, with Tesla slightly up by 0.1%.The cryptocurrency market showed volatility but overall presented a mild upward trend. Last night, influenced by the U.S. stock market, coupled with Trump's reiteration of old themes in his speech at the DAS summit without any substantial positive news, Bitcoin experienced a rapid decline. As of the time of writing, it has rebounded to $84,650, down 1.33% in the last 24 hours. Most other mainstream tokens have seen some pullback. BNB's on-chain performance has recovered, continuing to be a focus for investors.In the forex and commodities sector, risk aversion dominated the market, with the U.S. dollar index rising by 0.40%, extending Wednesday's gains; investors are paying attention to the Trump administration's sanctions on Iran, with international oil prices closing up over 1.6%; spot gold slightly retreated after reaching a historical high, with a cumulative increase of nearly 16% this year.The market is digesting the Federal Reserve's decision, but investors are concerned that Trump may impose more tariffs in April, questioning whether the potential inflation caused by tariffs will limit the Fed's expected significant rate cuts, leading to a clear risk-averse sentiment in the U.S. stock market.

4E: The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, slows down balance sheet reduction to release liquidity, and both the US stock market and cryptocurrency market rise collectively

ChainCatcher news, the Federal Reserve decided to keep the policy interest rate unchanged, in line with market expectations. At the same time, it announced a significant slowdown in the pace of balance sheet reduction (QT), easing market liquidity pressures. Powell reassured investors that the risk of recession is low, the U.S. economy remains strong, and the job market is still solid.According to 4E monitoring, the Fed's dovish stance boosted risk assets, with all three major U.S. stock indices rising on Wednesday: the S&P 500 up 1.08%, the Dow up 0.92%, and the Nasdaq up 1.41%. Tech stocks led the gains, with Tesla rising 4.68% and Nvidia up 1.81%.The cryptocurrency market rebounded significantly, with Bitcoin continuing to rise to $87,453 driven by tech stocks, before slightly retreating to $85,866 at the time of writing, a 24-hour increase of 3.6%. Other major tokens also rose collectively, with Ethereum returning above $2,000, while XRP surged over 11% due to the SEC dropping its appeal against Ripple.In the forex commodities sector, the U.S. dollar index soared, but the increase quickly narrowed to 0.21% after the Fed announced its decision to hold steady; U.S. oil closed up 0.39%; spot gold prices hit a historic high during trading for two consecutive days, approaching $3,052 during Powell's press conference.Powell acknowledged at the press conference that Trump's economic policies have brought significant uncertainty to the U.S. economy, but reiterated that the Fed is not in a hurry to adjust monetary policy. The updated dot plot indicates that the Fed will cut interest rates twice this year, consistent with the forecast from December last year. At the same time, the Fed downgraded its economic growth forecast while raising its inflation expectations, showing characteristics of "stagflation."

4E: US stocks continue to rebound, cryptocurrency market fluctuates within a narrow range

ChainCatcher news reports that according to 4E monitoring, U.S. stocks continued the rebound from last Friday on Monday, as investors sought to buy on dips after four consecutive weeks of market declines, pushing the indices higher. By the close, the Dow Jones rose 0.85%, the Nasdaq rose 0.31%, and the S&P 500 index rose 0.64%. Most large tech stocks fell, with Tesla leading the decline at 4.83%, down more than 40% this year.The cryptocurrency market fluctuated narrowly, showing overall lackluster performance, with Bitcoin hovering around $83,000, reported at $83,389 at press time, up 0.15% in 24 hours. Other major tokens mostly saw slight increases, with Ethereum striving to hold above $1,900, and BNB's meme market recovering strongly, rising nearly 18% in the past 7 days.In the forex commodities sector, the shadow of Trump's trade protectionism continues, with the dollar index falling 0.33% to a five-month low; influenced by geopolitical factors, oil prices rebounded over two days, with U.S. oil rising 0.59%; gold, driven by safe-haven sentiment, saw spot gold rise 0.57%, reaching a historical high for three consecutive days.Trump's tariff remarks have temporarily quieted, and the market is closely watching global central bank meetings. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates on Wednesday, and Powell's comments after the meeting will be closely monitored, as he has previously stated he is "not in a hurry" to cut rates. Investors will look for any changes in his tone.

4E: The volatility in the US stock and cryptocurrency markets has intensified, and this week marks the arrival of "Super Central Bank Week."

ChainCatcher news reports that, according to 4E monitoring, under the continuous impact of Trump's tariff policy, the three major U.S. stock indices experienced significant fluctuations last week and collectively closed lower. The Dow Jones fell about 3.1%, marking its worst weekly performance since March 2023. The S&P 500 dropped 2.27%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.43%, both marking the fourth consecutive week of decline. Large tech stocks, except for Nvidia which rebounded nearly 8%, all closed lower for the week.The cryptocurrency market was highly volatile, with Bitcoin rebounding after dipping to a recent low on Tuesday, oscillating around $83,000. U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday, driving Bitcoin above $85,000, but the upward momentum could not be sustained over the weekend due to a lack of liquidity, closing at $83,144, up nearly 1.5% over the past week. Other major tokens saw slight increases, with Ethereum striving to hold above $1,900, and BNB boosted by a $2 billion investment in Abu Dhabi and a revival in on-chain memes, rising nearly 10% over the past week.In the forex commodities sector, the U.S. dollar index fell about 0.1% last week; the oil market rebounded on Friday, reversing the downward trend for the week, with U.S. oil seeing its first weekly increase in nearly two months. The shadow of the trade war triggered a rush to safe-haven assets, with spot gold reaching a high of $3,004.94 on Friday, marking the first time it has surpassed the psychological threshold of $3,000, with a cumulative increase of 2.65% for the week.U.S. inflation data for February, both CPI and PPI, came in below expectations, easing concerns about economic stagflation. However, the latest University of Michigan consumer confidence index hit its lowest level in nearly three years, indicating extreme pessimism among consumers regarding the economic outlook. This week marks the "Super Central Bank Week," with over 20 central banks set to announce their latest policy rates, with a focus on the Federal Reserve and Japan, where the market currently expects both the Fed and the Bank of Japan to maintain their interest rates.
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