QCP Capital: As the cryptocurrency narrative thins, the stock market remains the main focus
ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that over the weekend, a Bitcoin whale opened a short position of $400 million, with an average entry price of $84,000 and a liquidation price of about $86,000. This triggered market volatility on Sunday, as some trading groups attempted to force the liquidation of this highly leveraged 40x position, which only required a 2.5% price movement. Nevertheless, the position remains open and has incurred nearly $400,000 in funding fees.The report indicates that the Crypto Fear and Greed Index currently stands at 32% (in the fear range), reflecting a persistent risk-averse sentiment, especially considering the overall negative sentiment in the stock market. This further reinforces Bitcoin's role as a macro hedge tool. For instance, last Friday, the BTC-17MAR25-80k-P options were actively bought 300 times, clearly aimed at hedging against weekend volatility risks.Despite the ongoing market noise, Bitcoin remains stable above $80,000, showing stronger resilience compared to the stock market. In contrast, U.S. stock index futures opened lower this morning due to renewed concerns about an economic recession. This stems from comments made by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who stated that the possibility of a recession cannot be ruled out, echoing sentiments previously expressed by Trump. The market will focus on tonight's U.S. retail sales data to further clarify whether the 0.9% decline in January retail sales is the first signal of a slowdown in consumer spending or merely a pullback following a strong end to the 2024 holiday season.The report suggests that as the cryptocurrency narrative thins, the stock market remains the main focus. Last week's lower-than-expected U.S. CPI data provided temporary relief, but the Federal Reserve is unlikely to pivot to a dovish stance immediately. Given the ongoing tariff risks and inflation concerns, the outlook for interest rate cuts remains uncertain. Therefore, QCP Capital expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at this Wednesday's FOMC meeting. However, as the market seeks any clues about the Fed's next moves, especially amid uncertainties surrounding Trump's policy shifts, market volatility may remain elevated.