ChainCatcher news, The Block CEO Larry Cermak pointed out in The Scoop podcast that there have been at least three instances of a 20% drop in previous crypto bull markets. He said, "Even the recent drop has not reached 20%. In historical bull markets, this usually happens once or twice, and sometimes even three times. It can clear out over-leveraged positions in the market and build momentum for the next rally." Larry Cermak added, "Clearing out over-leverage is beneficial. Of course, bull markets often end this way."

ChainCatcher message, Bitfinex Alpha's latest report states that since the bear market low of $15,487 in November 2022, Bitcoin has surged over 573%, and its price has increased by 130% year-to-date. The current bull market reflects strong institutional demand, primarily driven by ETFs and spot accumulation.Historical data suggests that we are in the mid-cycle, with the market likely peaking around the third to fourth quarter of 2025, approximately 450 days after the halving in April 2024. Indicators such as MVRV, NUPL, and bull-bear market cycle indicators suggest that we are still in the bull market phase but far from reaching the peak. The Pi cycle top and the 4-year moving average model predict a potential cycle top between $145,000 and $189,000.From a historical perspective, diminishing returns are moderating the explosive growth of BTC that we observed in previous cycles.

ChainCatcher news, Bankless co-founder Ryan Sean Adams posted on X that the current market is at the beginning stage of the second half of the crypto bull market.

ChainCatcher news, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju posted on the X platform that the previous prediction of a short-term adjustment in the crypto market was incorrect, but at that time it was not suggesting a bear market, just believing that the market would experience a correction.Ki Young Ju stated that we are currently in a bull market, and Bitcoin will rise. Based on the cumulative capital flowing into the Bitcoin market, the current price ceiling seems to be $135,000.

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, a recent survey released by the Web3 investment firm MV Global shows that nearly half of investors expect the cryptocurrency bull market to last until 2025, peaking in the second half of the year. The survey covered 77 large cryptocurrency investment institutions, including venture capital firms, hedge funds, and high-net-worth individuals.The results indicate that investors expect Bitcoin (BTC) to peak between $100,000 and $150,000. For Ethereum (ETH), one-third of respondents expect its price to be between $3,000 and $5,000, while another third is bullish up to $7,000. Notably, 30% of respondents expect Solana (SOL) to break $600 before the end of this cycle.

ChainCatcher news, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated on social media that as the U.S. Treasury expects tax revenue to increase the Treasury General Account (TGA) by about $200 billion, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is expected to inject significant liquidity into the market when announcing the debt issuance plan for the second quarter of 2024 next week.Hayes proposed three possible options: first, to stop issuing government bonds, reducing the TGA to zero, which would inject $1 trillion of liquidity into the market; second, to shift more borrowing to short-term Treasury bills, thereby withdrawing $400 billion from the overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) tool to inject liquidity into the market; third, to combine the first two approaches, not issuing long-term bonds, only issuing short-term Treasury bills, while consuming TGA and RRP, which would inject $1.4 trillion of liquidity into the market.

ChainCatcher news, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated that the current crypto bull market has just begun, and investors should boldly take a left turn, holding and increasing their positions.Hayes pointed out that 2024 is a crucial year, as several major countries will hold presidential elections. In particular, the United States, where the ruling Democratic Party will do everything possible to secure re-election in order to reverse the Republican policies. In an election year, if the public feels the economy is in recession, the incumbent president's re-election probability will drop from 67% to 33%. Therefore, the ruling party, which controls monetary and fiscal policy, can simply increase government spending significantly to boost nominal GDP growth and create an illusion of no recession.Data shows that U.S. government spending accounts for 23% of nominal GDP, meaning that as long as the government is willing to borrow money, nominal GDP can be manipulated at will. According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts, whether Biden or Trump takes office, the U.S. government's fiscal deficit will continue to expand in the future. Additionally, geopolitical conflicts surrounding the U.S. are escalating, and politicians are eager to continue providing billions of dollars in aid to allies.Hayes emphasized that as long as the government can borrow at rates lower than nominal GDP growth, politicians will continue to increase spending. Therefore, in the future, the scale of money printing will only become more exaggerated. He suggests that investors take full advantage of the recent cryptocurrency price pullback to gradually build their positions. As the summer in the Northern Hemisphere approaches, the volatility in the crypto market will also decrease, making it an excellent entry point for non-pre-sale round investors. Unless real interest rates turn positive, investors should remain optimistic and let the winners continue to run.

ChainCatcher news, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts in his latest blog post "Heatwave" that from mid-April to early May, U.S. taxation will drain market liquidity, coupled with the Federal Reserve's ongoing balance sheet reduction, which may lead to extreme market weakness. However, starting May 1, as the Federal Reserve slows down the pace of balance sheet reduction and the U.S. Treasury uses funds to stimulate the market, a new round of cryptocurrency bull market is expected to begin.Hayes points out that the Federal Reserve has indirectly "infused" the banking system by relaxing capital requirements, allowing banks to hold more government bonds. The U.S. Treasury has also been increasing the issuance of short-term government bonds to absorb the trillions of dollars of idle funds in the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase tool. Both measures are beneficial for enhancing market liquidity.However, Hayes expects that the tax deadline on April 15 will drain a large amount of funds from the system. At the same time, the Federal Reserve continues to reduce its balance sheet by $95 billion per month. Additionally, the anticipated Bitcoin block reward halving on April 20 may lead to short-term overselling, all of which will put significant pressure on the market.Hayes advises investors to act cautiously in April, but to deploy boldly after May. He reveals that he has currently closed positions in tokens such as MEW, SOL, and NMT for profit, and has transferred funds into the USDe stablecoin on the Ethena platform for staking. Hayes states that if he can avoid the loss risks in April, he will have ample ammunition to establish positions in various cryptocurrency assets in May and fully enjoy the benefits of the bull market.