ChainCatcher message, Bitfinex Alpha's latest report states that since the bear market low of $15,487 in November 2022, Bitcoin has surged over 573%, and its price has increased by 130% year-to-date. The current bull market reflects strong institutional demand, primarily driven by ETFs and spot accumulation.Historical data suggests that we are in the mid-cycle, with the market likely peaking around the third to fourth quarter of 2025, approximately 450 days after the halving in April 2024. Indicators such as MVRV, NUPL, and bull-bear market cycle indicators suggest that we are still in the bull market phase but far from reaching the peak. The Pi cycle top and the 4-year moving average model predict a potential cycle top between $145,000 and $189,000.From a historical perspective, diminishing returns are moderating the explosive growth of BTC that we observed in previous cycles.

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, a recent survey released by the Web3 investment firm MV Global shows that nearly half of investors expect the cryptocurrency bull market to last until 2025, peaking in the second half of the year. The survey covered 77 large cryptocurrency investment institutions, including venture capital firms, hedge funds, and high-net-worth individuals.The results indicate that investors expect Bitcoin (BTC) to peak between $100,000 and $150,000. For Ethereum (ETH), one-third of respondents expect its price to be between $3,000 and $5,000, while another third is bullish up to $7,000. Notably, 30% of respondents expect Solana (SOL) to break $600 before the end of this cycle.

ChainCatcher news, the Glassnode Onchain Newsletter on Wednesday indicated that despite the recent pullback, the overall structure of the Bitcoin market remains consistent with historical bull markets, reflecting both the resilience of demand and the limited scale of the recent correction. The report emphasizes that although Bitcoin has experienced adjustments, these corrections have been much milder compared to previous cycles.Two key indicators highlighted by Glassnode are the True-Market Mean and the Active Investor Price, both of which help estimate the average cost basis of Bitcoin investors in the current market cycle. The True-Market Mean reflects the average price at which all market participants acquired Bitcoin over a period of time; on the other hand, the Active Investor Price specifically focuses on the average cost basis of investors who have been active in trading over the past few months.Since the beginning of this year, spot prices have generally remained above these two levels, with only brief exceptions. The report states that this indicates a strong support base, which helps stabilize the market during price declines.

ChainCatcher news, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes analyzed in a personal blog post that Japan's fifth-largest bank, Norinchukin Bank, recently announced it will sell $63 billion worth of U.S. and European bonds. This suggests that other Japanese banks may follow suit, with total sales reaching up to $450 billion in U.S. Treasuries.Hayes pointed out that the reason for the large-scale selling of U.S. Treasuries by Japanese banks is the sharp widening of the U.S.-Japan interest rate differential, which has led to a significant increase in the foreign exchange hedging costs for holding U.S. Treasuries, resulting in losses from holding these bonds. In an election year, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen is likely to ask the Bank of Japan to absorb these sold bonds through the Federal Reserve's FIMA repo tool, in order to prevent a sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields and avoid turmoil in the financial markets.Hayes believes that if the Federal Reserve engages in large-scale money printing to repurchase the U.S. Treasuries sold by Japan, it will bring a new wave of dollar liquidity to the cryptocurrency market, fueling a new cryptocurrency bull market. He stated that to maintain the current dollar-based financial system, the supply of dollars must increase, which will undoubtedly drive up the prices of crypto assets, including Bitcoin.

ChainCatcher news, according to Bloomberg, data from The Block Research shows that the average amount of Series A funding for cryptocurrency startups reached $26 million in the first quarter of 2024, the highest level since the end of the last cryptocurrency bull market in early 2022. From January to March, the total venture capital in the cryptocurrency industry increased to $2.5 billion.

ChainCatcher news, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated on social media that as the U.S. Treasury expects tax revenue to increase the Treasury General Account (TGA) by about $200 billion, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is expected to inject significant liquidity into the market when announcing the debt issuance plan for the second quarter of 2024 next week.Hayes proposed three possible options: first, to stop issuing government bonds, reducing the TGA to zero, which would inject $1 trillion of liquidity into the market; second, to shift more borrowing to short-term Treasury bills, thereby withdrawing $400 billion from the overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) tool to inject liquidity into the market; third, to combine the first two approaches, not issuing long-term bonds, only issuing short-term Treasury bills, while consuming TGA and RRP, which would inject $1.4 trillion of liquidity into the market.

ChainCatcher news, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts in his latest blog post "Heatwave" that from mid-April to early May, U.S. taxation will drain market liquidity, coupled with the Federal Reserve's ongoing balance sheet reduction, which may lead to extreme market weakness. However, starting May 1, as the Federal Reserve slows down the pace of balance sheet reduction and the U.S. Treasury uses funds to stimulate the market, a new round of cryptocurrency bull market is expected to begin.Hayes points out that the Federal Reserve has indirectly "infused" the banking system by relaxing capital requirements, allowing banks to hold more government bonds. The U.S. Treasury has also been increasing the issuance of short-term government bonds to absorb the trillions of dollars of idle funds in the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase tool. Both measures are beneficial for enhancing market liquidity.However, Hayes expects that the tax deadline on April 15 will drain a large amount of funds from the system. At the same time, the Federal Reserve continues to reduce its balance sheet by $95 billion per month. Additionally, the anticipated Bitcoin block reward halving on April 20 may lead to short-term overselling, all of which will put significant pressure on the market.Hayes advises investors to act cautiously in April, but to deploy boldly after May. He reveals that he has currently closed positions in tokens such as MEW, SOL, and NMT for profit, and has transferred funds into the USDe stablecoin on the Ethena platform for staking. Hayes states that if he can avoid the loss risks in April, he will have ample ammunition to establish positions in various cryptocurrency assets in May and fully enjoy the benefits of the bull market.

ChainCatcher news, Arthur Hayes, the founder of the encrypted trading platform BitMEX, stated in his blog that the United States' policy choices in the Ukraine crisis and the Israel-Palestine conflict may further escalate tensions, leading to a significant increase in U.S. military spending, which in turn could raise inflation expectations and government bond yields. In this environment, investors will reduce their holdings of U.S. Treasuries and instead increase their holdings of gold and Bitcoin as safe-haven assets. Hayes believes this could lead to the arrival of a new cryptocurrency bull market.