Metrics Ventures Market Observation | The Crypto Bull Market Has Sounded the Charge, and the Grand Journey of Escape Velocity Has Just Begun
There is no longer a final opportunity for you to board; from now on, every day will be your last chance to get on.Author: Metrics Ventures
There is no longer a final opportunity for you to board; from now on, every day will be your last chance to get on board.
Allow me to once again address all of humanity in the tone of "The Wandering Earth," regarding the grand plan for the next phase of the crypto market bull market:
The first phase, after experiencing a severe washout at the end of 2022, will see this cycle complete the chip turnover throughout 2023, establishing the average holding price of both long and short-term chips around the $30,000 mark, forming the gravitational pull of the bottom for this cycle.
In the second phase, boosted by ETF expectations, the BTC price will break above $30,000, escaping the main holding cost range, and accelerate into the bull market with the first cosmic velocity, breaking free from gravitational pull.
In the third phase, with the realization of ETF approval expectations, the BTC price will break through the long-term upward channel formed from November 2022 to January 24, 2024, accelerating to the second cosmic velocity, with BTC breaking through the $48,000 mark, signaling the start of a major upward wave, beginning to escape gravitational pull; we are currently already at the second cosmic velocity.
In the fourth phase, BTC will break through $100,000, accelerating towards the end of the major upward wave, entering the third cosmic velocity, thus triggering mass frenzy, completely breaking free from gravitational pull and entering the solar system.
This plan has gone through 15 years of "four generations" from 2009 to the present. Although we do not know what kind of home the crypto market will find outside the solar system, starting today, the courage and perseverance of generations of crypto enthusiasts will be forever etched in the starry sky.
Regarding the future market trends, I believe there is no need for further elaboration. February 24, 2024, historically, is equivalent to November 8, 2020, and May 2017, both being the launch dates for the market entering the second cosmic velocity, as can be seen from the blue circle in the chart below.
From November 2015 to May 2017, the market entered the major upward wave through a long-term upward channel breakout; from February 2019 to November 2020, it entered the major upward wave through a converging triangle breakout; this round from December 2022 to February 2024 will also enter the acceleration wave through a long-term upward channel breakout.
Looking at the trends from past cycles, as long as we have experienced a long accumulation period of about a year and a half, once BTC's trend breaks through the acceleration pattern and enters the second cosmic velocity, it will surge with momentum before breaking historical highs, facing no resistance whatsoever. This is also the core reason why BTC can directly challenge the historical high of $67,000 after breaking through the $48,000 mark around the Spring Festival.
For the trend of this cycle, there is no need for any further data analysis; the net inflow of ETFs has already formed a trend, and the specific amount of net inflow is no longer important; many people panic about high borrowing rates and contract fees, and whether there will be a crash or flash crash during this process is also not important; whether the macro environment will lower interest rates, I have stated for two years that it is fundamentally unimportant.
As a strongly reflexive market, the trend has already formed, and the cycle will self-reinforce; we need not worry or doubt, any concerns about pullbacks or flash crashes are merely alarmist.
The market has just started the acceleration wave and is about to break historical highs; the grand journey of the second cosmic velocity has just begun, and we can reasonably make some inferences:
BTC Dominance has peaked; the ETHBTC exchange rate is about to reverse and break through: the altcoin season is approaching, and large-scale thematic rotation is about to start. Let us witness together the madness of the third cosmic velocity after $100,000.
After a long passage of time, doubts about the crypto market continue to proliferate; I refuse to accept their expectations. The trend of the industry will tread upon every piece of land until all doubts are completely driven out of this world.
