US Treasury

Analysis: BTC has decoupled abnormally from US Treasury yields, marking a structural shift in its role within the macroeconomy

ChainCatcher news, Cryptoquant analyst Darkfost released a market analysis stating that macroeconomics has become the dominant narrative in today's cryptocurrency market. As a result, key indicators such as the US Dollar Index (DXY) and US Treasury yields are now closely monitored by investors, reflecting the overall state of institutional sentiment and global liquidity. When DXY and bond yields rise simultaneously, capital tends to flow out of risk assets. In such an environment, Bitcoin typically experiences pullbacks. Historically, bear markets in cryptocurrencies have often coincided with strong upward trends in yields and DXY.Conversely, when DXY and yields lose momentum, investors' risk appetite shifts towards risk assets. These periods are often associated with monetary easing or market expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, thereby driving bullish sentiment in the crypto market. Notably in the current cycle, there is an unusual decoupling between Bitcoin and bond yields. Despite yields reaching one of the highest levels in Bitcoin's history, Bitcoin continues to maintain an upward trend, especially accelerating when DXY declines. This anomaly suggests a structural shift in Bitcoin's role within the macroeconomic landscape, as it is increasingly viewed as a store of value. This new narrative may be redefining how Bitcoin responds to traditional macroeconomic forces.

4E: The US dollar and US Treasury yields continue to rise, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling for three consecutive days, putting pressure on risk assets

ChainCatcher news, according to 4E monitoring, on Wednesday, the three major U.S. stock indices fell, influenced by weak stock prices of Apple and Nvidia. Investors sold off technology stocks, chip stocks, and AI concept stocks, dragging the Nasdaq down by 1.60%, leading the decline, while the Dow and S&P both fell about 1% and have declined for three consecutive days. The cryptocurrency market followed the general downturn of U.S. stocks, with Bitcoin briefly approaching $65,000. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is at $67,300, up 0.36%, while Ethereum is at $2,550, down 2.43%.In the foreign exchange and commodity markets, as the election approaches, investors are weighing the possibility of a significant victory for Trump, which is considered the most favorable outcome for the dollar. The dollar index rose over 0.3% to near a three-month high, with the yen, euro, and pound all declining. Spot gold approached $2,760 during the session, setting a historical high for five consecutive days. Subsequently, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rose together, putting pressure on precious metals, turning gains into losses. Spot gold fell 1.2% at the close, while spot silver briefly dropped 4%, departing from its twelve-year high. Last week, the EIA crude oil inventory increase exceeded expectations, putting pressure on oil prices, with U.S. oil falling over 1.3%, ending a two-day rise.The Federal Reserve's Beige Book released on Wednesday showed little change in U.S. economic activity, with an increase in hiring by businesses and continued easing of inflationary pressures. With a series of strong economic data released recently, expectations for Fed rate cuts have weakened, coupled with "Trumpflation" prompting the market to reconsider rate cut expectations, especially for next year, leading to a sustained rise in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, which pressured risk assets. The stock market, commodities, cryptocurrencies, and non-U.S. currencies were generally under pressure. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, commodity gold, and foreign exchange. It recently launched a USDT stablecoin financial product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing investors with a potential hedging option. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets reasonably.

Bitwise investment strategist: The proportion of US Treasury holdings in stablecoins will soon rise to 15%, making it one of the top three holders

ChainCatcher message, Bitwise Senior Investment Strategist Juan Leon posted on X: "According to a report by Bloomberg, stablecoins currently hold about 1% of U.S. Treasury securities, but this percentage could soon grow to 15%, making them one of the top three holders.Without regulation, the market value of stablecoins has skyrocketed from $0 to nearly $170 billion in just a few years. Now, a stablecoin bill has gained bipartisan support in Congress, and Federal Reserve officials have recognized stablecoins as a new tool that can enhance the dollar's influence globally and support the U.S. Treasury market.As stablecoin regulation is set to take effect in Europe in 2025, and with the U.S. looking to catch up, stablecoins will increasingly be embedded in the pipelines of the digital economy. With AI agents becoming more prevalent, stablecoins will become the preferred mechanism for digital commerce.The digital economy now accounts for 15% of the global economy and is growing at a rate 2-3 times faster. The use of stablecoins is growing at an exponential rate, meaning the speed from $170 billion to $1 trillion will be faster than from $0 to $170 billion. A $1 trillion stablecoin Treasury purchase volume would dwarf the top 10 money market funds and place it among the top three holders (over $800 billion)."
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