ChainCatcher news, according to Bloomberg, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink stated that "it is possible to raise interest rates at some point in the next 12 months," but he also emphasized that this scenario is not his core prediction, just a possibility he sees.He mentioned that the bond market indicates inflation may be higher than people think, and if we look back to the U.S. Treasury market a year and a half ago, the U.S. was experiencing very high inflation.

ChainCatcher news, according to Caixin, changes in the leadership of the U.S. Treasury Department may alter the department's approach to cash held at the Federal Reserve. Strategists warn that this move could impact the U.S. bond market.Institutions such as Bank of America and Wrightson ICAP LLC indicate that as cash balances—funds that ensure the U.S. can pay its bills—decrease, the Treasury may reduce the funds held in Federal Reserve accounts.Against the backdrop of a restored debt ceiling and shrinking cash balances, this would allow the government to issue fewer short-term bonds, potentially saving taxpayer money.

ChainCatcher news, BitMex co-founder and former CEO Arthur Hayes stated: "I don't think Trump will move to establish a Bitcoin reserve. After all, I don't see the point of borrowing money to buy Bitcoin on any of Trump's platforms."He said: "Before destroying the bond market, you have so much borrowing power. Would you borrow money to buy Bitcoin? Would you borrow money to provide healthcare for the elderly who vote for you, or to make more bombs so that the defense lobby likes you? You can borrow money to buy many different things. I just don't think he would spend money on Bitcoin. While Bitcoin supporters believe Bitcoin is important, there are many other stakeholders who want borrowed money to end up in their pockets."Regarding the implementation of a Bitcoin reserve, Hayes said, "I hope I'm wrong." But he pointed out that there is limited time before the midterm elections, which may restrict the ability to implement significant policy changes, and there are many other things that need time and budget allocation.

ChainCatcher news, Societe Generale analyst Sam Cartwright stated in a report that the Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates, which could support the UK government bond market and prevent disorderly sell-offs. Cartwright noted that due to weakening economic growth and inflation in the UK, the extent of the Bank of England's rate cuts may exceed market expectations.He stated: "We expect a more aggressive easing policy than what the market currently reflects, which could alleviate some of the pressure on UK government bonds." LSEG Refinitiv data shows that the market expects the Bank of England to cut rates by 43 basis points in 2025, while Societe Generale anticipates a cut of 100 basis points. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, the MOVE index (Merrill Option Volatility Expectation) for U.S. Treasury market volatility has continued to rise since hitting a low of 82 points in mid-December, reaching 102.78 points on January 8. As the world's second-largest financial market, increased volatility in the Treasury market often signals a tightening financial environment, which may trigger risk aversion across various financial markets.Latest data shows that manufacturing performance has exceeded expectations, suggesting strong economic resilience and persistent inflationary pressures, driving U.S. Treasury yields higher across the board. Among them, the 30-year Treasury yield rose to 4.92% (the highest since November 23), while the 10-year yield climbed to 4.68% (the highest level since May).Since Trump won the election on November 5, the MOVE index had significantly dropped, leading to a broad rally in risk assets. However, this upward momentum began to weaken when the MOVE index hit its low in mid-December. On January 8, Bitcoin fell 5% to $96,900, and the S&P 500 dropped over 1%. Analysts point out that the bond market is currently dominating broader market trends, making it difficult for risk assets to regain upward momentum before the Treasury market stabilizes.

ChainCatcher message, according to a report by Grayscale Research, in the last quarter of 2024, the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies soared from $1 trillion to over $3 trillion, surpassing the total value of global inflation-linked bond markets. At certain moments, the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies was even twice that of the U.S. high-yield bond market.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the Ministry of Finance has decided to carry out support operations for government bond market making. The operation direction is to sell, with 1.26 billion yuan of the 2024 book-entry interest-bearing (16th issue) government bonds and 530 million yuan of the 2024 book-entry interest-bearing (19th issue) government bonds. The competitive bidding time is December 17.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, LBBW analyst Elmar Voelker stated in a report that the interest rate decision at the Federal Reserve's meeting next week is not as clear-cut as the forward rates suggest."In our view, the recently released U.S. macroeconomic data does not provide a clear template for the upcoming interest rate decision," said the seasoned fixed-income analyst. Voelker noted that from the perspective of bond market participants, "a rate cut in December and a pause in January" is not much different from "a pause in December and a rate cut in January."LSEG data shows that the money market believes there is a 94% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 6%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data, due to the impact of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday (Thursday), the trading hours in the U.S. will be shortened this week. The U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed on November 28 (tomorrow) and will close early on November 29 (Friday).Futures contracts for precious metals, crude oil, foreign exchange, and stock indices under the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), as well as Brent crude oil futures contracts under the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), will close early on November 28 and 29.This adjustment in trading hours will affect multiple financial products, including Bitcoin futures. Investors are advised to make appropriate arrangements in advance and pay attention to position management.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, since Trump has taken the lead in the prediction market and won his second term on Tuesday, the U.S. bond market has experienced a slight crash, leading to an increase in mortgage and other household borrowing costs. Fortunately, Trump has a clear way to mitigate this damage and start his term on a good note: he should announce that he fully trusts Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, whose term will last until May 2026, and commit to remaining silent on monetary policy issues.Powell had a brief conversation with reporter Victoria Guida:Guida: Some of Trump's advisors suggest you should resign. If he asks you to leave, would you go?Powell: No.Guida: Do you believe legally you don't have to leave?Powell: No, I don't have to.It is reported that Powell was not joking. Following these comments, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury initially fell by about 4 basis points, totaling a decline of 11 basis points for the day.

ChainCatcher news, bullish bets in the world's largest bond market have re-emerged ahead of the release of July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data later on Wednesday, indicating that traders are preparing for further gains as they expect the CPI data to show continued easing of price pressures. Investors betting on a further rise in the U.S. Treasury market are closely watching the upcoming U.S. inflation data, hoping it will further substantiate the case for the Federal Reserve to accelerate its rate cuts. Traders are divided on whether the Fed will cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points in September, with swap trading indicating that the market expects a 36 basis point cut. Overall, they anticipate that the Fed will lower rates by about 1 percentage point over the remainder of 2024. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, 10x Research stated on social platforms that risk assets represented by stocks and cryptocurrencies are on the verge of a significant price adjustment. The main trigger is unexpected and persistent inflation. The bond market currently expects fewer than three rate cuts, with the 10-year Treasury yield exceeding 4.50%, and the market may have reached a critical threshold for risk assets.

ChainCatcher news, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) today released a report titled "Tokenization of the Hong Kong Bond Market," outlining the next steps for promoting the broader application of tokenization technology in the Hong Kong bond market. The report details the experience of the HKMA in assisting the government with the issuance of HKD 800 million tokenized green bonds under the "Project Evergreen" initiative in February this year, including the specifics of the tokenized green bonds, technology and platform design, as well as trading and settlement.In addition, the report states that bond tokenization is still in its infancy, and to achieve widespread adoption, multiple challenges must be overcome. Existing legal and regulatory frameworks may also need to be fine-tuned to keep pace with and promote the adoption of the technology.

ChainCatcher news, the debt trading platform OPNX founded by Su Zhu and others announced the launch of a Market Maker Program aimed at providing liquidity incentives to market makers.It is reported that there are mainly two types of incentives: first, up to 200 VIP market makers can receive a subsidy of $5,000 per month, and second, incentives ranging from $5,000 to $50,000 per month will be provided based on trading volume. Earlier, ChainCatcher reported that on the first day of trading on the debt market OPNX platform, founded by Zhu Su and others, the trading volume was extremely low, with only two transactions executed across all spot and derivatives markets on the platform, totaling a value of $1.26. (source link)

ChainCatcher news, the CEX project "GTX" founded by Zhu Su, the founder of Three Arrows Capital, has officially announced its name "OPNX" (Open Exchange). The official website is now online, and users can apply to join the claims waiting list. According to the introduction, OPNX will establish a zero-knowledge proof network to conduct real-time public encrypted audits of leverage in the system, allowing all parties to independently verify the accuracy of each balance, liquidation, withdrawal, deposit, and transaction, while protecting user integrity and privacy. The CoinFLEX platform token FLEX will continue to support the new platform, with the token economics remaining unchanged.OPNX stated that today's crypto world is like a black box filled with unknown risks, leverage, and non-custodial elements. Last year, public chains, CEXs, large projects, and capital were all in a state of collapse. The team at Open Exchange has a deep understanding of this and believes it is their responsibility to learn from all lessons to promote the development of the crypto industry and establish a more robust, open, and transparent financial world. According to market data, the CoinFLEX platform token FLEX has maintained an upward trend since mid-January, with the price per token rising from a low of $0.036 to a high of $2.45 before a significant pullback.Previous reports indicated that OPNX was co-founded by Su Zhu and Kyle Davies of Three Arrows Capital, along with Sudhu Arumugam and Mark Lamb, the two co-founders of CoinFLEX. The team consists of more than 60 former CoinFLEX members. (Source link)