ChainCatcher news, the CPI report on Thursday showed that the U.S. September CPI exceeded expectations across the board, hindering the process of inflation retreat. Another piece of data indicated that the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to the highest level in over a year. The market is increasingly focused on the impact of a slowing labor market, with traders betting that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November has risen to 83.3%, while the probability of pausing the rate cut stands at 16.7%.According to 4E monitoring, after the data was released, U.S. stocks opened lower, attempted to turn positive at midday, and then collectively closed lower again. The Dow Jones fell by 0.14%, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.21%, and the Nasdaq decreased by 0.05%. The cryptocurrency market mostly declined, with Bitcoin once again falling below the $60,000 mark, quoted at $60,533 before publication. Non-U.S. currencies showed mixed results, with expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut heating up, leading to a slight decline in the dollar index; oil prices surged over 3.5% after two days of decline, influenced by tensions in the Middle East and Hurricane "Milton"; expectations for a rate cut provided support for gold prices, with spot gold rising over 0.9% at one point, ending a six-day decline, while spot silver rose over 2.2%, ending a three-day decline.The CPI increase in September exceeded expectations, intensifying discussions in the market about whether the Federal Reserve will pause rate cuts. However, the series of statements from Federal Reserve officials indicate that employment is the dominant factor in current policy, and the employment data for October will be crucial in determining the pace and extent of the Federal Reserve's easing. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, bulk gold, and foreign exchange. Recently, it launched a USDT stablecoin wealth management product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing investors with potential hedging options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets reasonably.

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve's Bostic stated that he is willing to consider a further 50 basis point rate cut if the labor market shows unexpected weakness. The baseline expectation is for a "orderly" easing of policy, with inflation expected to continue to slow and the labor market to remain stable. Since the core PCE index remains at 2.7%, he does not want to be overly confident about inflation and will closely monitor the upcoming employment data; if job growth is significantly below 100,000 positions, a deeper exploration of the current situation will be necessary.

ChainCatcher message, Societe Generale stated in a report that the upcoming U.S. economic data may confirm that the labor market is steadily cooling down, providing support for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and for the dollar to weaken. "If the trend is a gradual easing of the labor market, it will point towards rate cuts, but not at the pace currently expected," said a foreign exchange strategist at Societe Generale. They noted that this could inject some volatility into the forex market; however, the bank still advises selling the dollar on any rebound unless the labor market completely stops easing. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, in his speech at the Jackson Hole conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized the importance of U.S. employment data for the upcoming monetary easing cycle.Stephen Stanley of Santander Bank stated in a report that this increases the significance of the employment data for August, which will be released on September 6. He mentioned that after the unexpectedly low job growth in July, "the growth in August is not entirely shocking. More broadly, Powell and others at the Fed have recently begun to express concerns about the cooling conditions in the labor market, so stronger data in August could dispel the idea of a 50 basis point rate cut next month." Stanley believes that the employment report may be more critical than the August core CPI data.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, U.S. Bank economists stated in a report regarding Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday that the Federal Reserve's concern about the cooling of the U.S. labor market still calls for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, rather than 50 basis points.Bank of America stated that although Powell's tone was relatively dovish, "we do not believe he opened the door wider for a 50 basis point cut." "On the contrary, he implicitly supports a gradual reduction in rates." If the risk of recession increases, larger cuts will occur. "A very weak employment report could bring this about, but the decline in unemployment claims suggests this should not be the baseline scenario."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Goolsbee stated in an interview with CNBC that the current policy is the tightest moment of the entire interest rate hike cycle. He supports the Federal Reserve's new focus on the labor market, as inflation is moving towards the 2% target. All the conditions we hope to achieve for rate cuts have been met, and nearly all indicators show that the labor market is cooling down. The Federal Reserve's forecasts indicate broad support for rate cuts.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin Shi reports, Corpay's Chief Market Strategist Karl Schamotta stated that a key phrase in Powell's speech is that they will "make every effort to support a strong labor market while achieving further progress on price stability."In my opinion, this indeed indicates that Powell acknowledges the growing concerns among policymakers regarding the direction of the labor market. Powell did not put a 50 basis point rate cut on the table for September, which somewhat aligns with market expectations.

ChainCatcher news, Federal Reserve's Goolsbee stated that the labor market and some economic leading indicators are flashing warning signals, adding that there are concerns that the unemployment rate will continue to rise.Goolsbee said, "Historically, if the unemployment rate starts to rise, and if temporary employment is negative, that is a leading indicator." He pointed out that the rising credit card delinquency rates and the increasing default rates among small businesses are also concerning issues. He noted that when problems begin to emerge in the job market, they often do not happen slowly. However, he declined to disclose whether he supports a rate cut at the Federal Reserve's next meeting in September, but he reiterated that there is no need to tighten monetary policy as long as the economy is not overheating. When asked about the possible magnitude of a rate cut, Goolsbee stated, "Everything is on the table." (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, Claudia Sahm, founder of Sahm Consulting and chief economist at New Century Advisors, shared her insights on the U.S. economy. Despite growing concerns about a recession, Sahm emphasized that the current labor market still shows strength, indicating that the economy may not yet be in a recession.

ChainCatcher news, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that monetary policy will be adjusted as the economy develops.If the economy remains robust, interest rates will be kept unchanged as needed. If the labor market unexpectedly weakens, measures will be prepared to respond. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve's Daly stated that if inflation declines more slowly than expected, the policy rate must remain high for a longer period; if inflation gradually decreases and the labor market rebalances slowly, the Federal Reserve can gradually adjust policy; if inflation declines rapidly or the labor market weakens beyond expectations, lowering the policy rate will be necessary.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States decreased last week, indicating potential strong momentum in the job market. As of the week ending May 11, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. was recorded at 222,000. Last week, this figure had risen to the highest level in over eight months, and this week's slight decline has reversed some of last week's increase.The increase in initial jobless claims this week is largely attributed to a surge in unemployment claims in New York related to school spring break. While the U.S. labor market remains healthy, it is steadily rebalancing after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 525 basis points since March 2022. The easing of labor market conditions and the downward trend in inflation have increased the likelihood of a rate cut in September.