ChainCatcher news, Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst believes that the combination of the unexpectedly high CPI from yesterday and the U.S. PPI index supports the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points next month. The Fed's preferred inflation measure, the PCE, combines price data from both CPI and PPI, so this combination allows forecasters to make accurate predictions for the PCE in September.Citigroup expects that the core PCE, excluding the volatile food and energy prices, will grow by 0.21% month-over-month in September, while the year-over-year PCE will decrease from 2.7% in August to 2.6%. Hollenhorst pointed out that this should encourage the Fed to continue lowering rates.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Barkin stated that inflation is moving in the right direction.

ChainCatcher news, analyst Paul Ashworth said in a report that considering today's CPI report, the core PCE inflation indicator for September may accelerate from 0.1% in August to 0.2%, but the annualized rate "will only be slightly above the Fed's 2% target." PCE data will not be released until the end of the month, and in addition, tomorrow's PPI report will help adjust expectations. Ashworth stated that if his prediction is correct, the pace of inflation (decline) "will support the Fed's more cautious rate cut of 25 basis points early next month." (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Allianz Chief Economist El-Erian warned that not all investors are optimistic about Friday's employment report, and the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation is not over. "This is not just a solid labor market, but if you look at these numbers on the surface, this is a strong labor market in the late cycle."Lindsey Bell, Chief Investment Strategist at 248 Ventures, stated that the wage growth reflected in the report may remind the Federal Reserve that inflation will remain sticky. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said on Friday that the latest U.S. non-farm payroll report is "excellent," and that more similar employment market data will boost his confidence in the economy being in a state of full employment and low inflation. He believes it is appropriate for the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates over the next 12 to 18 months, which is also the expectation of most policymakers at present.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman reiterated previous comments on monetary policy, stating that the core inflation rate remains uncomfortably high above the 2% target.

ChainCatcher news, Pantheon Macroeconomics economist Claus Vistesen stated that inflation rates in France and Spain have significantly decreased this month. If this data can represent the entire Eurozone, then European Central Bank policymakers supporting further rate cuts will be in a favorable position to push for a third rate cut next month.The most striking detail in the French inflation data is that the inflation rate for manufactured goods dropped from negative 0.1% in August to negative 0.3%, which is a significant downside surprise, especially considering that the base effect suggests that good commodity inflation should rebound. The ECB's rate cut in October is the new baseline expectation, but a greater certainty for the rate cut will only come after the Eurozone inflation data is released on Tuesday. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, some senior officials of the Federal Reserve have expressed concerns that inflation has not yet been defeated. Federal Reserve Governor Bowman explained in a statement that such a dramatic first rate cut could unnecessarily restore inflationary pressures. It is reported that Bowman was the only Federal Reserve governor to vote against the rate cut last week. As of Tuesday, inflation swaps and U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities both suggest that inflation may linger above the Federal Reserve's 2% target in the coming years, even if only moderately.

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve's Goolsbee stated that the "golden path" has become history, and last year's inflation declined without an economic recession. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated: "We have not set any fixed path for interest rates and will make decisions in a series of meetings. If the economy remains strong and inflation remains stubborn, we may adjust policy more slowly. If appropriate, we can accelerate or slow down the pace of rate cuts, or even choose to pause rate cuts."

ChainCatcher news, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon recently stated that he does not rule out the possibility of stagflation, although confidence in easing inflation is growing.Dimon warned at the Institutional Investor Committee's fall meeting in Brooklyn, New York, that despite signs of economic cooling, serious risks remain. He said, "I think the worst outcome is stagflation—economic recession, higher inflation... I would not rule out that possibility." Dimon expressed concerns about potential ongoing inflationary pressures, citing factors such as increased government spending and rising deficits. He pointed out that while inflation data is improving, indicators like employment and manufacturing show the economy is under pressure. He warned, "These are all inflationary, basically in the short term, for the next few years (continuing)." He emphasized that despite some positive economic signals, significant uncertainty remains, and inflationary pressures could weigh on the U.S. economy.Dimon has consistently warned about an economic slowdown, noting in August that the likelihood of a "soft landing" is only 35% to 40%, indicating that a recession may be the more likely outcome. He highlighted various uncertainties, including geopolitical issues, housing, and spending. Meanwhile, JPMorgan has raised the likelihood of a U.S. recession this year.

ChainCatcher news, despite the U.S. inflation rate dropping to its lowest level in three years, the financial markets have yet to react even as investors hope for a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Particularly in the crypto market, there has been virtually no impact from this news, with Bitcoin and others quickly recovering their upward momentum after a brief decline. The cryptocurrency market's muted response to the inflation report is partly due to growing investor interest in the bond market, as well as the brewing storm of the U.S. presidential election.Harris's strong performance in the recent debate has reignited hopes for the Democrats to win the White House, which is seen as a possible harbinger of dovish monetary policy. Conversely, if Trump wins re-election, it could increase government spending and subsequently put upward pressure on interest rates. U.S. Treasury yields have been directly impacted by this shift in investor sentiment, and this sudden change in market mood indicates a significant shift in investor attitudes, exacerbating pessimism about the economy and the general expectation of lower borrowing costs.Market observers note that caution remains the prevailing sentiment in the market. Investors are exercising restraint, choosing to wait for clearer signals before rebalancing their portfolios. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to 4E Exchange observations, the year-on-year growth rate of the U.S. CPI in August fell to 2.5%, marking a decline for the fifth consecutive month, but the core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, exceeding expectations. The market has lowered its expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, with the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut rising to 85%.After the data was released, U.S. stocks experienced a V-shaped rebound following an initial drop at the open, with all three major indices closing higher. The Dow rose slightly by 0.31%, the Nasdaq gained 2.17%, and the S&P 500 index increased by 1.07%. Tech stocks led the rebound, with Nvidia rising over 8%. In the forex and commodities markets, the dollar index surged, putting pressure on non-dollar currencies, while gold experienced significant volatility.CPI data indicates that the Federal Reserve is approaching its 2% target, a change that will support future rate cuts, benefiting risk assets and supporting the long-term rise of U.S. stocks and cryptocurrency assets like Bitcoin. However, the Federal Reserve's focus on core inflation may lead to a more cautious monetary policy, limiting the short-term upside potential for the market.4E Exchange is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, commodity gold, and forex, and is a platinum sponsor for Token2049 in 2024. 4E reminds you to be aware of market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

ChainCatcher news, Blackstone Group's Chief Financial Officer Michael Chae stated that the company is "cautiously optimistic about a soft landing in the U.S.," indicating that this alternative asset management firm bets that the Federal Reserve's efforts to curb inflation will not trigger a recession in the U.S.Blackstone's own inflation gauge shows that inflation in the U.S. has reached 1.7%, excluding housing costs and incorporating other relevant metrics. Chae noted that this would bring the U.S. "to the Federal Reserve's inflation target."Chae mentioned that data collected from Blackstone, the world's largest alternative asset management firm, indicates that the labor market has been softening. CEOs of Blackstone's portfolio companies indicated in a June survey that they expect wage growth to slow next year. While the "revenue growth of Blackstone's global portfolio is slowing," these companies have shown "resilient profit margins."Chae stated, "We are seeing signs of 'animal spirits' returning in the trading markets. If these trends continue, I believe this could lead to a particularly strong market in 2025."

ChainCatcher news, according to Informa Global Markets, the overall CPI in the U.S. for August slowed to 2.5% year-on-year, in line with expectations, marking the lowest level since February 2021. The core inflation annual rate remained at 3.2%, which also met expectations.The market noted that the core inflation month-on-month rate was higher than expected, recorded at 0.3%, which prompted the USD/JPY to rise from 141.80 to 142.35. This data supports a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week and should eliminate the possibility of a larger 50 basis point cut.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi, the U.S. one-year inflation expectation for August from the New York Fed is 3%, up from the previous value of 2.97%.A report released by the New York Fed on Monday showed that the public's expectations for inflationary pressures in the U.S. remained largely unchanged from last month, as current price pressures continue to ease. The Fed's latest consumer expectations survey found that respondents in August expect inflation rates of 3% and 2.8% one year and five years from now, respectively, which is basically flat compared to July. Respondents expect the inflation rate three years from now to rise from 2.3% in July to 2.5%.The report also found that the expected change in housing prices in August increased from 3% last month to 3.1%. Although the overall inflation expectations for August remained stable, the report indicated that the public expects prices for gasoline, rent, and healthcare to rise, while the increases in food and college prices are expected to slow down. The report stated that respondents view the labor market outlook as mixed, expecting income to increase, and spending expectations have also risen.

ChainCatcher news, encrypted KOL artchick.eth (@digitalartchick) posted on X that every 30 days, Solana inflates by about 1 billion dollars, which is why the price of SOL performs mediocrely, but its market cap continues to hit all-time highs.In contrast, Ethereum inflated 160 million dollars in the past 30 days, while Bitcoin inflated 215 million dollars in the same period.In response, Solana validator node operator Laine refuted: "This claim is incorrect; Solana's 30-day inflation is about 250 million dollars, not 1 billion dollars, which is a 4-fold difference. Moreover, this is before the burn, and over time, this number will decrease."

ChainCatcher news, Peter Cardillo, Chief Market Economist at Spartan Capital Securities, stated that today's PCE report shows very good numbers, and of course, they indicate that inflation has peaked and is continuing to decline. Personal income (growth) is not very strong, while consumption continues to rise, suggesting that the likelihood of a recession in the first six months of 2025 is at most minimal.It is clear that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, and I think there is still debate about whether the cut will be 25 or 50 basis points, which will entirely depend on next week's employment data. If the data is much weaker than expected, assuming (job growth) is less than 100,000, then the likelihood of a 50 basis point cut will increase, especially if inflation is moving in the right direction.He stated, "I expect the Federal Reserve to have three rate cuts, with a possible 0.5 percentage point cut in September, depending on the employment data. Otherwise, there will be a 25 basis point cut in September and a 50 basis point cut in December."

ChainCatcher news, Federal Reserve's Bostic stated that the inflation rate has significantly decreased from its peak in 2022, but recent data is "still far from" the central bank's 2% target. He mentioned, "To bring inflation back to target, I have been highly focused on the short term." Bostic noted that officials have begun discussing what level interest rates will stabilize at in the long term, adding that he set the neutral rate at 3% in the latest economic forecast summary released in June. Just a day earlier, the Atlanta Fed president reiterated that his expectations for the timing of rate cuts have been brought forward. He added that he would prefer to wait for more data to confirm economic trends rather than cut rates too early, only to have to raise them again when inflation accelerates.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Barkin stated that they will adopt a "test and learn" approach to respond to interest rate cuts. The decline in inflation has extended from the goods sector to other parts of the economy, strengthening confidence that it will continue to fall.