ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve may not see more signs of inflation easing before deciding whether to cut interest rates again in December. After studying this week's CPI and PPI inflation data, many analysts predict that the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the PCE price index, will show that core prices, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, rose 2.8% year-on-year in October. This would represent a renewed acceleration in growth since September and means that the core PCE annualized rate has returned to the level seen in May.However, this pain may be temporary. Citigroup economists expect that the core PCE monthly inflation rate may slow significantly in November. But the November data will not be released until New Year's Eve.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, stated that to maintain the strength of the dollar, the Federal Reserve may need to stop cutting interest rates.Yardeni pointed out that the U.S. economy is performing robustly, and his company, Yardeni Research, has always held a positive view on the dollar. A few months ago, due to market expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the dollar weakened, which Yardeni believes would be a mistake. He added that the performance of the U.S. Treasury market and the dollar supports this view. He believes that by stopping or reducing interest rate cuts, the Federal Reserve will help maintain the strength of the dollar.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Cook stated that if the progress of inflation decline stalls, it may require the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts. If the labor market shows signs of weakness, gradually lowering interest rates would be appropriate. The labor market has rebalanced, overall cooling down, and inflation has made "considerable progress."

ChainCatcher news, the U.S. October CPI data released last night fully met market expectations, causing little stir in the market. However, the data performance has increased market confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again next month, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December rising from about 58% earlier on Wednesday to around 80%.According to 4E monitoring, U.S. stocks showed volatility on Wednesday, with the three major indices collectively turning negative at the start, then rebounding to rise, but significantly narrowing gains by the end of the day, with the Nasdaq closing down 0.26%, the S&P 500 slightly up 0.02%, and the Dow Jones up 0.11%. The "Tech Seven Sisters" had mixed performances, and most cryptocurrency concept stocks retreated.The cryptocurrency market regained momentum after a brief pullback. Bitcoin broke through the important $90,000 mark last night, reaching a high of $93,265, then retreated after hitting a new historical high, and as of the time of writing, it was at $89,586. Bitcoin's market capitalization has now surpassed Saudi Aramco, making it the seventh largest asset in the world. Meme coins continue to rise, leading various sectors and becoming the focus of investors' attention.In the forex and commodities sector, after the CPI release, the dollar index initially fell and then rose, reaching a 13-month high since October last year, putting pressure on other currencies, with the offshore yuan falling below 7.25 yuan. Oil prices rebounded on Wednesday, closing up over 0.45%, lingering at two-week lows. The rise in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields pressured gold prices to decline for the fourth consecutive trading day, hitting a near two-month low.The CPI data, which was in line with expectations, increased the probability of another rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December and helped to some extent alleviate market concerns about inflation prospects following a potential Trump victory. Currently, the market is focused on Thursday's PPI and weekly initial jobless claims, Friday's retail sales data, and comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and other Fed officials. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, commodities like gold, and forex, recently launching a USDT stablecoin financial product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing investors with potential hedging options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, IG market strategists stated that Trump's election as President of the United States has directly led to a reduction in the expectation of Federal Reserve rate cuts before 2025. The potential "red wave" means there is little resistance to his tax cuts and spending plans, coupled with his stance on raising tariffs.The strategist said, "Overall, this could complicate the Federal Reserve's efforts to combat inflation, and we might expect the Fed to be more cautious in its future easing process, indicating upward pressure on yields and a stronger dollar." Traders now believe there is a 68% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in December, compared to about 83% before Trump's victory.

ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live researcher Adam posted on social media that the U.S. election ended with a landslide victory for Trump, and Bitcoin simultaneously broke through its historical high, driving multiple mainstream cryptocurrencies to surge. The market sentiment is currently very high. The crypto market is now independent of other markets, and often important fundamental turning points are first reflected in the crypto space. Last Friday's interest rate meeting decided to cut rates by 25 basis points, and the fundamentals of the rate-cutting cycle are supporting the investment market. The implied volatility (IV) of the current options at-the-money has already dropped below 60%, with strong selling pressure from sellers who are selling into the big market.The U.S. election ended with a Trump victory, and last Friday's interest rate meeting decided to cut rates by 25 basis points. The crypto market reacted strongly, with Bitcoin breaking through its historical high, and both funding rates and futures premiums showing strong bullish sentiment. In terms of options, the implied volatility (IV) of the current options at-the-money has dropped to 80%, with strong selling pressure from sellers who are selling into the big market. Currently, the short-term skew of Bitcoin has risen significantly, while the mid to long-term skew has decreased. The options market still needs to observe the movements of the whales.In the crypto interest rate market, the Bitfinex interest rate market has been relatively stable recently, with occasional high-interest orders of 20%. When encountering suitable interest rate orders, it is worth actively trading, especially during market movements.

ChainCatcher message, Deutsche Bank stated in a report that the Bank of England released cautious signals regarding future interest rate cuts on Thursday, indicating a positive outlook for the pound in the coming months. Analyst Michael Pfizer said that the Bank of England is unlikely to cut rates in December, as it has raised its inflation expectations for 2025-26 and economic growth expectations for 2025.The Bank of England has "clearly" taken into account the UK's recent budget, which may be more expansionary in the short term than previously expected. "This suggests that the Bank of England will continue to cut rates at a much slower pace than the European Central Bank, while the growth rate of the UK economy may be much faster than that of the Eurozone."

ChainCatcher news, ANNEX Wealth Management Chief Economist Brian Jacobsen stated that the Federal Reserve has not added any drama for this week. A 25 basis point rate cut still keeps the federal funds rate in a restrictive range, but it is no longer as tight as before.Although the Federal Reserve indicated that the risks to its employment and inflation targets are roughly balanced, they might want to italicize "roughly." Because the election is influential, we can see that economic growth has slightly improved relative to the Fed's forecasts, but inflation has also slightly risen relative to their forecasts, which calls for a more gradual pace of rate cuts. They do not need to retract their rate cut plans, but they also do not need to accelerate the pace of rate cuts.

ChainCatcher news, the word "tariff" has not yet appeared in Trump's victory speech, but he promised during his campaign that tariffs would be an important part of his economic strategy towards allies and competitors. Analysts have expressed their views on the tensions in Europe.ING wrote: "European politicians will wake up to face their fears. Trump's trade agenda regarding a 'level playing field' will severely impact the open economies of the European continent." The Kiel Institute for the World Economy stated: "Trump's economic policy measures may include protectionist tariffs and import restrictions, which will put further pressure on growth in Germany and Europe." Deutsche Bank Research noted: "European stock futures are lower today, and European bond futures are much flatter than U.S. bonds. If the results continue in this direction, the likelihood of the European Central Bank being forced to accelerate rate cuts will increase."

ChainCatcher news, a report from CICC states that the annualized quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth rate for the United States in Q3 2024 is 2.8%, slightly lower than the market expectation of 3.0%, and a slight decline from 3.0% in Q2, but still a remarkable result. In terms of components, personal consumption expenditures are strong, corporate equipment investment is expanding, and exports and government spending are accelerating, indicating that the U.S. economic growth remains healthy. Relatively weaker are real estate investment and construction investment, showing that high interest rates are still having a suppressive effect.In addition, inflation further declined in Q3, suggesting that the U.S. economy is heading towards a soft landing. We believe that the Federal Reserve does not need to make significant rate cuts for now, expecting a 25 basis point cut next week, while whether to skip a rate cut in December will depend on inflation developments.

ChainCatcher message, Fed's Logan stated that if the economy meets expectations, a gradual rate cut is anticipated. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, after the release of U.S. retail sales and initial jobless claims data, traders expect the Federal Reserve's rate cut this year will be reduced.

ChainCatcher news, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that recent economic data suggests that policymakers can approach the issue of subsequent interest rate cuts with less urgency than during last month's meeting. Waller said in a prepared speech at a meeting held at the Hoover Institution in Stanford, California on Monday, "I think the overall data suggests that monetary policy should be more cautious in the pace of rate cuts than it was during the September meeting." He added that if the current economic conditions persist, "we can gradually shift policy to a neutral stance." The neutral policy interest rate refers to a rate that neither stimulates nor suppresses economic growth. Waller also noted that recent data—including upward revisions to economic growth and an increase in job vacancies—indicates that the extent of the economic slowdown may not be as severe as expected. At the same time, Waller stated that his baseline expectation is to gradually lower interest rates next year.The Federal Reserve will make its next interest rate decision at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting on November 6-7. During the Q&A session following his speech, Waller declined to provide details on the "gradual" pace of rate cuts.

According to ChainCatcher news, foreign media reported that after a government report showed last month's inflation slightly higher than expected, traders increased their bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November. Following the release of the CPI data, traders began to withdraw their bets that the Federal Reserve would pause rate cuts in November, and now expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming meetings.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, based on a Bloomberg survey of economists, the month-on-month growth rate of CPI and the core CPI excluding food and energy may record 0.1% and 0.2% respectively. Core CPI is seen as a better signal for future inflation. The prices of groceries and gasoline can sometimes fluctuate significantly, exaggerating the overall price level.If there is a significant increase in core CPI, financial markets may experience turbulence and reignite considerations about the Federal Reserve's "pause" on interest rate cuts—if further progress on inflation issues stalls, the Federal Reserve may abandon rate cuts in November or December.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, based on market news, Bridgewater founder Dalio does not expect significant interest rate cuts.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi, Tim Horan, Chief Investment Officer of the Fixed Income Department at Chilton Trust, stated that strong job creation confirms the Federal Reserve's actions and indicates that a soft landing is imminent.Tim Horan mentioned that the unexpectedly high 254,000 new non-farm jobs in September "allows the Federal Reserve to be absolutely pragmatic," even considering pausing (rate cuts) in November "to digest the election results without having to worry about falling behind the curve." With the job market performing quite well, the Federal Reserve can calmly adjust monetary policy, understanding how elected officials plan to handle government spending.Tim Horan stated that although officials avoid commenting on fiscal policy, "the Federal Reserve has to worry" about the continuously expanding national debt.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the non-farm payroll data for September shows that the U.S. job market added 254,000 jobs last month, and U.S. stock index futures rose. The S&P 500 futures increased by 0.7%, higher than the approximately 0.3% before the data was released. Traders are weighing the positive signals of economic strength in the report, as well as the possibility that strong job growth may lead the Federal Reserve to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts.

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, investment management company Apollo Crypto has released a report highlighting the potential for a second wave of growth in decentralized finance (DeFi), viewing macroeconomic factors such as the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and credit expansion in China as key drivers of DeFi growth.The report points out that after experiencing the peak of "DeFi summer" in 2020, the market slowed down. However, protocols like Maker, Uniswap, and Aave have become mainstream in the industry. As of now, the total TVL of DeFi is approximately $105 billion.The report also mentions the decentralized finance (DeFi) infrastructure, stating that "the focus in recent years has been on building cryptocurrency infrastructure" to establish "a large amount of cheap block space." This allows DApps to access block space with "higher performance speeds" and reduces transaction costs on L2 scaling solutions.