ChainCatcher news, QCP released its daily market observation stating that after a week of tariff edge policies, risk assets have begun to stabilize, breaking free from barriers that could have dealt a heavy blow to Sino-U.S. trade. The U.S. has imposed tariffs as high as 145% on Chinese imports, while China retaliated with tariffs of 125%, escalating to a level where the market is no longer surprised by further intensification. The enormous scale of these tariffs makes them more symbolic than market-driven factors, contrasting sharply with the panic triggered in the early days of "Liberation Day."After Friday's close, the Trump administration quietly exempted the latest tariffs on smartphones, computers, and chips. Despite the ongoing stalemate, risk assets are pricing in optimistic sentiment, even as the U.S. seems to be negotiating not only with China but also with the bond market and itself.In the crypto market, Bitcoin's risk reversal remains biased towards bearish options until June, indicating that the market still appears somewhat cautious in the short term. However, long-term sentiment is becoming more positive. On Saturday, we observed aggressive buying of 800 contracts of BTC-27MAR26-100k-C. Bitcoin continues to consolidate in the $80,000 to $90,000 range, possibly continuing to trade sideways while adopting a "wait and see" strategy regarding the tariff situation.

ChainCatcher message, Matrixport released today's chart stating that Bitcoin is currently in another adjustment phase. Historically, in the past four instances when the Stochastics Index fell to 15%, Bitcoin experienced a significant rebound. However, the index is currently at 25%, indicating that the market may not be close to a rebound opportunity yet.Although President Trump claims that the Chinese side is eager to negotiate, there has been no response from the Chinese side, and market sentiment remains cautious. Meanwhile, despite a 20% pullback in the U.S. stock market, the Treasury or the Federal Reserve has not clearly signaled support, so it may not be the ideal time to "buy the dip" in Bitcoin before the Stochastics Index approaches the critical 15% threshold.

ChainCatcher Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech on the economic outlook, stating: "We face a highly uncertain outlook. It will be very difficult to assess the economic impact of tariffs before we have greater certainty about the details. While uncertainty remains high, it is now clear that the magnitude of the tariff increases will be significantly greater than expected. The economic impacts may also be so, including higher inflation and slower growth. The extent and duration of these impacts remain uncertain.We will continue to closely monitor the upcoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. We are prepared to wait for clearer signals before considering adjustments to our policy stance. It is still too early to say what the appropriate path for monetary policy is."

ChainCatcher news, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler stated early Thursday that it is appropriate to maintain the current interest rate level until the risks of rising inflation subside. In her prepared remarks, she pointed out that changes in government policy, the recent stagnation in the cooling of inflation, and rising inflation expectations are key reasons for maintaining policy patience."As long as the risks of rising inflation persist, while economic activity and employment remain stable, I will support maintaining the current policy rate." Although the theoretical impact of a one-time tariff on inflation should be temporary, if it affects multiple areas of the economy and further raises inflation expectations, its impact may be more lasting.Data shows that inflation levels have improved little recently since reaching a 40-year high in 2022. A University of Michigan survey indicated that long-term consumer inflation expectations rose to a 32-year high in March. Kugler emphasized the importance of stabilizing inflation expectations, noting that both short-term and long-term inflation expectations have risen recently.

ChainCatcher news, as Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" approach, market sentiment has undergone repeated tests, ultimately betting that clear trade policies will help stabilize the market. The three major U.S. stock indices experienced significant fluctuations during the day, closing mixed: the Dow Jones fell slightly by 0.03%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.38%, and the Nasdaq increased by 0.87%. Large tech stocks strengthened across the board, with Tesla rising more than 3%.The cryptocurrency market rose in tandem, with Bitcoin, driven by the early low opening of tech stocks, briefly approaching $82,000, and then following the rebound of U.S. stocks, reaching a high of $85,579. It is currently challenging whether it can hold above the $85,000 mark, having increased by 2.36% in the last 24 hours. Other major tokens generally rose, with Ethereum striving to break the $2,000 mark. Last night, multiple meme tokens on the BNB chain experienced a chain collapse, significantly undermining market confidence in meme coins.In the forex commodities sector, the dollar closed flat after fluctuating throughout the day; the oil and gas market overall declined, with crude oil prices slightly retreating; investors chose to take profits ahead of a series of tariffs coming into effect, with spot gold retreating after reaching a historic high.The U.S. stock market seems to have stopped falling on the eve of the "reciprocal tariffs" deadline, indicating that the market believes Trump will not insist on any tariff policies that would severely hinder economic growth, and is looking forward to clear trade policies that will help stabilize the market. Global attention is focused on tonight's tariff announcement, watching whether it can clarify policy direction to eliminate uncertainty, and whether the increase in tariffs will further worsen economic prospects.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, Presto research analyst Min Jung stated: "Currently, the market is in a wait-and-see mode as tariff details have not been disclosed. Investor sentiment is mixed; some investors believe the impact may not be as severe as initially feared and view the recent decline as a potential 'buying the dip' opportunity. However, many traders still choose to remain on the sidelines until the situation becomes clearer. The next move of the market will largely depend on the tone and content of the actual announcements."Brickken market analyst Enmanuel Cardozo stated: "Everyone expects Trump's support for cryptocurrency to have an immediate effect, but the reality is that policy implementation takes time. Global economic uncertainty has fueled a risk-averse atmosphere everywhere, and by the end of 2024, the market has already priced in the expectation of a Trump victory. However, a recovery in the second quarter 'is certainly possible,' and the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates within the second quarter, while Trump's team will also present more concrete results in supporting cryptocurrency policies. With the increase of institutional fund flows, momentum may strengthen, and if Bitcoin breaks through the resistance level of $88,668, it may test $100,000 again, but if macro factors stagnate, the likelihood of a decline is also low."

ChainCatcher news, according to Bloomberg, cryptocurrency trading automation platform CoinPanel trading expert Kirill Kretov warns investors to be particularly cautious in the current environment: the market remains fragile and is easily manipulated. Retail activity is sluggish, trading volume is thin, and even so-called smart money is watching from the sidelines. The real forces capable of driving the market are choosing to stay put, which is no coincidence.Kirill Kretov believes that long-term Bitcoin holders, who have endured previous cycles, are still holding their positions, waiting for a higher exit price. This "reluctance to sell" behavior creates selling pressure in the market, exacerbating price volatility. Although the volatility may flush out over-leveraged retail investors, he points out that only a "complete clearance" where long-term holders are forced to sell can create a "clean stage" for large investors to establish new positions.Before that, any rebound is fraught with danger; they may lure impatient bulls into the market, only to face a sharp reversal—this is a typical bull market trap in a low liquidity environment.

ChainCatcher news, Blackstone Group President Jon Gray warned investors not to make "knee-jerk reactions" to Trump's tariff antics, but rather to wait and see how potential negotiations unfold. He stated, "Be a little patient." "Observe the evolution of this tariff diplomacy and make investment decisions over a longer period. I think the danger during such a time is that if you do something short-term, you will miss opportunities."As Trump decides on new tariff policies almost daily, the market is anxious about the economic impact of a full-blown trade war. Gray said, "I think you have to take a step back. The government can react, they can decide how to make concessions, and then ultimately it ends up in a different situation."

ChainCatcher message, Zhao Changpeng posted on X: "BNB ChAIn, I have been waiting for the AI hype to settle down before starting to promote BNB AI. True builders will move forward after the heat ends."

ChainCatcher news, Matrixport released today's chart stating that by mid-December 2024, the inflow of Bitcoin ETF funds and the open interest of Bitcoin futures contracts will both reach approximately $35 billion. After that, futures positions significantly declined, while the inflow of Bitcoin ETF funds remained relatively stable.This indicates that short-term traders are exiting, possibly selling their positions to long-term investors. Currently, both the funding rate and market trading volume are low, and unless new macro catalysts emerge, the likelihood of significant growth in Bitcoin ETF funds is relatively small.

ChainCatcher message indicates that, according to the application information, there are currently at least 13 Solana-based exchange-traded products awaiting approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The applicants include institutions such as Grayscale, Bitwise, Canary, and 21Shares. However, since Paul Atkins has not yet been officially appointed as the chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, these applications remain pending.ETF Store President Nate Geraci predicted last week that BlackRock will apply for Solana and XRP ETFs. Additionally, Bloomberg ETF analysts previously estimated that the chances of Solana ETF approval by the end of this year could reach 70%.

ChainCatcher news, Bitfinex has released the latest analysis report, which points out that Bitcoin fell to a low of $77,041 last week, a pullback of 29.7%, marking the second deep correction in this bull market. Meanwhile, the continued outflow of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs (totaling $921.4 million last week) indicates that institutional buyers do not yet have enough strength to offset the selling pressure.Historically, when new capital inflows slow down and the cost basis trend changes, it indicates that the demand environment is weakening. As Bitcoin struggles to maintain above key levels, this trend becomes increasingly apparent. Without new buyers stepping in, Bitcoin may face the risk of long-term consolidation or even further declines, as weaker buyers continue to exit their positions. A key factor to watch is whether long-term holders or institutional demand will re-emerge at lower market levels. If wealthier investors begin to absorb Bitcoin sell-offs, it could signal a shift towards accumulation, potentially stabilizing price movements and reversing market sentiment.

ChainCatcher news, CICC's research report states that the U.S. core and total CPI inflation both fell in February, both below market expectations.From a breakdown perspective, oil prices and airfare prices have significantly cooled, reflecting weakened economic demand. Overall, rent remains moderate, and the increase in core commodity prices has slowed. Looking ahead, CICC believes that the slowdown in demand is conducive to curbing inflation, and the real estate and labor markets may not become sources of inflation by 2025. However, tariffs may push up short-term price levels, enhancing the stickiness of inflation. The Federal Reserve will not rush to cut interest rates and will wait for clarity on tariff policies before taking action. CICC maintains its previous judgment that the next rate cut may have to wait until the third quarter.

ChainCatcher message, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated, "The plan is as follows: be patient, don't rush. Bitcoin may bottom around $70,000, a 36% pullback from the historical high of $110,000, which is very normal in a bull market. Then, we need a free-fall crash in the U.S. stock market, followed by the bankruptcy of major players in traditional finance. After that, the Federal Reserve and central banks around the world will start to inject liquidity to save the market, and that's when it's time to go all in. Traders will try to catch the bottom; if you are risk-averse, you can wait until the major central banks start to inject liquidity before increasing your position. You may not catch the bottom precisely, but you won't have to suffer through a long consolidation period and potential unrealized losses."

ChainCatcher news, Matrixport's latest report analysis believes that the White House crypto summit and the confirmation of the U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserves failed to ignite market sentiment, and the crypto market did not show a significant increase, with perpetual contract funding rates still hovering at single-digit levels.This indicates that retail investors' enthusiasm remains low, in stark contrast to April and December 2024, when funding rates soared to double-digit highs.Even the market momentum brought by Trump's official inauguration is relatively subdued, clearly indicating that Bitcoin needs more influential catalysts to usher in a new round of increases.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital analysts point out that this week could be a historic milestone as the White House will hold the first-ever crypto summit. However, without any specific executive orders, funding commitments, or congressional support, the market remains in a wait-and-see mode. Crypto investors may view the summit as an asymmetric event, and it remains to be seen whether it will serve as an unexpected catalyst for a price surge or reveal the vulnerabilities of cryptocurrencies and trigger a deeper sell-off.