Author: Monkey | Editor: Monkey

1. Bitcoin Market

From March 15 to March 21, 2025, the specific movements of Bitcoin are as follows:

March 15
Bitcoin suddenly surged at the close of the previous day, with the price rising from $82,976 to $85,043. The market then experienced a brief pullback, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range of $83,790 - $84,640 throughout the day. In the evening, Bitcoin rebounded slightly from $83,792 to $84,453, maintaining that level for a short time.

March 16
Bitcoin continued its oscillating trend, with the overall price hovering around $84,400. After a brief dip to $83,839, it quickly rebounded. In the afternoon, the market saw significant volatility, with Bitcoin suddenly dropping from $84,271 to $82,490, followed by a rebound to $84,358, indicating intensified competition between bulls and bears.

March 17
The market saw fierce competition between bulls and bears, with price movements experiencing significant fluctuations. Bitcoin formed short-term support at $83,700 and $83,000 but eventually fell to $82,047, where the decline paused. It then quickly rebounded to $83,777 but failed to stabilize, dropping back to $82,711, before rising again to $83,714, and then oscillating down to $82,771, showing a narrowing consolidation pattern.

March 18
Bitcoin broke through the oscillation range, rising to $84,572, followed by a stepwise decline to $83,976, $83,062, and $82,361. After a brief rebound to $83,343, it weakened again, ultimately falling below $82,000, with a low of $81,367.

March 19
Market sentiment began to shift positively, and Bitcoin started a rebound trend. It rose from $81,343, briefly breaking through $82,223, and then continued to climb to $83,110, maintaining an upward oscillating trend, ultimately closing at $86,841.

March 20
Continuing the upward momentum from the previous day, Bitcoin's price slightly adjusted from $84,713 to $83,990 before rapidly surging, breaking through $85,907, and further rising to a new peak of $87,427. However, the market experienced sharp fluctuations, with Bitcoin quickly pulling back to $85,082, rebounding to $86,303, and then plunging again, hitting a low of $83,727.

March 21
After a brief dip, Bitcoin stabilized and began a new round of oscillating recovery, first rising to $84,285, then adjusting before climbing further to $84,681. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin was quoted at $84,618, with the market overall entering a consolidation phase.

Summary

This week, Bitcoin's overall trend saw a decline followed by a rise, with bulls and bears clashing multiple times. The market faced pressure in the first half of the week, with prices oscillating downward, while a strong rebound occurred in the latter half, with prices breaking through key resistance levels before adjusting. As of now, Bitcoin's price remains around $84,600, with market sentiment stabilizing, and attention should be paid to whether it can further break through key resistance areas.

Bitcoin Price Trend (2025/03/15-2025/03/21)

2. Market Dynamics and Macroeconomic Background

Capital Flow

Exchange Capital Flow Situation

• Bitcoin Spot ETF Capital Outflow: As of March 14, 2025, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has reduced its holdings by a total of 55,348 Bitcoins over the past 35 days, a decrease of 4.76%, reflecting a decline in demand from institutional investors.

• Comparison of Gold and Bitcoin ETF Capital Flows: Over the past 30 days, gold ETFs attracted $10 billion in capital inflows, while Bitcoin ETFs faced $5 billion in outflows. This trend indicates that some investors are shifting their funds from Bitcoin to traditional safe-haven assets like gold.

Whale Holdings and Trading Dynamics

• Surge in Whale Trading Activity: In the week of March 15, Bitcoin's large transaction volume was $32 billion, which then surged by 40% to $42.9 billion, indicating a significant increase in whale demand of $13 billion in a short period.
• Changes in Whale Holdings: According to IntoTheBlock data, the holdings of Bitcoin whales have shown a downward trend over the past year, but March data suggests a potential trend reversal. Whales currently hold 62,000 more Bitcoins than at the beginning of the month, indicating a reaccumulation of positions.
• Whale Short Position Building Event: On March 16, 2025, an anonymous trader "0xf3f" opened a $16.2 million margin position with 40x leverage on the decentralized derivatives exchange Hyperliquid, establishing a $379 million Bitcoin short position, with a liquidation line set at $86,593. This move attracted widespread market attention and intensified market volatility.
• Whale Liquidation Operations: On-chain analysts monitored that this "Hyperliquid 50x Whale" used a Time Weighted Average Price (TWAP) strategy to gradually close Bitcoin short positions. In an hour and a half, he closed 108 BTC, leaving 5,500 BTC short positions valued at approximately $455 million.

Technical Indicator Analysis

Moving Averages (MA):

• Short-term Averages (5-day, 10-day): Present buy signals, indicating a bullish short-term price trend.

• Long-term Averages (50-day, 200-day): Also show buy signals, suggesting a bullish long-term trend.

Relative Strength Index (RSI):

• The RSI indicator is in the overbought range, signaling a strong buy, but caution is needed for short-term pullback risks.

Stochastic Indicator:

• The stochastic indicator also shows strong buy signals, further supporting the short-term upward trend.

Overall, multiple technical indicators point to Bitcoin being in a strong buying zone, with both short-term and long-term trends maintaining an upward trajectory. However, due to the RSI being at a high level, attention should be paid to the potential for overbought pullback risks, and investors are advised to cautiously position themselves based on their risk tolerance.

Market Sentiment

• Fear Sentiment Easing: According to on-chain analyst Murphy's analysis, market fear sentiment has gradually weakened after reaching a peak, with players showing a noticeable decrease in panic selling at low prices, indicating a quiet recovery in sentiment.
• Increased Bottom-Fishing Willingness: During the second wave of pullback from March 7 to March 13, there was a significant increase in active buy orders for Bitcoin spot on the Coinbase platform, showing strong interest from U.S. players in Bitcoin around $80,000, with a strong willingness to bottom-fish during declines.
• Market Confidence Rebounding: Although prices have not fully reflected this sentiment shift, the market seems to be waiting for a key trigger point. From a macro perspective, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting and subsequent remarks by Powell will be crucial nodes; as long as the meeting results do not exceed the market's pessimistic expectations, combined with current data, Bitcoin has a basis for a rebound in the short term.

Macroeconomic Background

Impact of Federal Reserve Policy: The Federal Reserve has kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged and plans to cut rates twice in 2025. This policy has enhanced market demand for Bitcoin, pushing it towards $86,000 or higher.

3. Hash Rate Changes

From March 15 to March 21, 2025, the Bitcoin network hash rate exhibited fluctuations, as detailed below:

On March 15, the hash rate showed an overall downward trend, first rising from 790.37 EH/s to 814.94 EH/s, then sharply falling to 680.74 EH/s, and rebounding briefly to 741.72 EH/s. On March 16, the hash rate dipped to 701.74 EH/s, then rebounded strongly to 924.43 EH/s, maintaining a high level briefly before entering a correction phase, with a low of 793.49 EH/s. On March 17, the hash rate continued the previous day's oscillating trend, first declining to 696.23 EH/s, then gradually rising to 812.89 EH/s, followed by a slight drop to 779.32 EH/s during the session. On March 18, the hash rate briefly climbed to 861.48 EH/s before entering a correction phase, gradually declining to 731.93 EH/s. On March 19, the hash rate gradually rose, peaking at 941.81 EH/s, then falling back to 813.10 EH/s, maintaining fluctuations within that range. On March 20, the hash rate first dropped to 791.07 EH/s, then rebounded to 859.72 EH/s, after a slight adjustment further rising to 865.68 EH/s, but subsequently continued to decline, hitting a low of 762.04 EH/s, ultimately rising back to 800.32 EH/s. As of March 21, the hash rate was on a downward trend.

This week, the hash rate exhibited strong volatility, particularly with significant surges on March 16 and March 19, possibly influenced by miners adjusting their computing power, changes in market sentiment, or fluctuations in energy supply. Future trends will need to focus on the distribution of network computing power, mining difficulty adjustments, and changes in the macro market environment.

Bitcoin Network Hash Rate Data

4. Mining Revenue

From March 15 to March 21, 2025, Bitcoin miners' revenues were influenced by multiple factors, including Bitcoin price fluctuations, mining difficulty adjustments, and market sentiment.

On March 17, CoinDesk reported that JPMorgan released a research report indicating a slight increase in Bitcoin network computing power in March, while mining economics declined.

The report noted that U.S. listed mining companies maintained about 30% of the network's computing power share. Meanwhile, the average price of Bitcoin fell by about 10% during the period, putting pressure on mining economics. The hash rate price (a measure of daily mining profitability) remained basically unchanged compared to the end of last month. In the first two weeks of March, miners earned about $48,300 per EH/s daily block reward, an 11% decrease from February and a 52% decrease since the halving event last April.

The total market capitalization of the 14 U.S. listed mining companies tracked by JPMorgan fell by 13% compared to last month, approximately $3 billion. Among them, Argo Blockchain (ARGO) performed the best, rising 1%, while Cipher Mining performed the worst, falling 25%. The report added that during the same period, only one of the mining companies covered by the bank outperformed Bitcoin.

In summary, although the Bitcoin network's computing power continues to grow, miners' profitability is facing further contraction pressure due to the price pullback.

5. Energy Costs and Mining Efficiency

According to CloverPool, as of the time of writing, the total Bitcoin network computing power has reached approximately 785.48 EH/s, while the current mining difficulty is 112.15 T. Based on current trends, it is expected that during the next difficulty adjustment (approximately in 2 days), Bitcoin mining difficulty will further increase by about 0.51%, reaching 112.72 T.

According to the latest data from MacroMicro, the total production cost of Bitcoin on March 19 was approximately $88,101.12, with the Mining Cost-to-Price Ratio at 1.01, meaning the cost for miners to produce one Bitcoin is nearly equal to the market price, resulting in relatively small profit margins for miners. This ratio reflects the operational pressure on miners, especially in the context of significant Bitcoin price fluctuations, making their profitability more sensitive.

In this context, miners not only need to continuously improve mining efficiency but also optimize energy usage to ensure profitability in fierce competition. In the future, the Bitcoin network's computing power is expected to continue growing, and miners may need to rely more on advanced cooling technologies and renewable energy sources like solar power to reduce their carbon footprint and energy costs, thereby gaining an advantage in long-term competition.

Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Data

6. Policy and Regulatory News

Progress of Bitcoin-related Legislation in U.S. States

1. Kentucky
   On March 15, the Kentucky State Senate unanimously passed the Blockchain Digital Asset Bill (HB 701) with a vote of 37-0. The bill has now been submitted to the governor's office for final approval. The bill confirms individuals' rights to self-custody digital assets through self-custody wallets and prevents local governments from implementing discriminatory laws against digital asset mining businesses, ensuring that Bitcoin miners can operate freely in the state.

2. North Carolina
   On March 19, the North Carolina State Senate proposed Bill SB327, authorizing the state treasury to allocate up to 10% of public funds to Bitcoin. The bill stipulates that the purchased Bitcoin will be held in multi-signature cold storage and audited monthly. The sale of Bitcoin is only permitted under "severe financial crises" and strict conditions. North Carolina has currently proposed two Bitcoin reserve bills, namely House Bill HB92 and Senate Bill SB327. The state's general fund is approximately $9.5 billion.

3. Missouri
   On March 20, the Missouri Bitcoin Reserve Bill HB1217 was submitted to the House Special Committee on Government Affairs. This bill is one of the slower progress items in Missouri's Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) legislation and has now entered the committee stage.

Political Support for Bitcoin Reserve Plans

1. Cynthia Lummis
   On March 17, Senator Cynthia Lummis's plan for the government to purchase 1 million Bitcoins has gained support from 12 U.S. politicians. The plan aims to strengthen the U.S. Bitcoin reserves and promote the legalization of Bitcoin as a digital asset.

2. Nick Begich
   On March 18, U.S. Congressman Nick Begich stated that the U.S. should purchase and hold 5% to 15% of Bitcoin to mitigate the risk of fiat currency collapse. He believes that Bitcoin reserves will provide emergency support for the American people. Begich previously called for the U.S. to become a Bitcoin superpower and announced plans to submit a Bitcoin bill to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2025.

South Korean Central Bank: Has Never Considered Including Bitcoin in Foreign Exchange Reserves

On March 17, the South Korean central bank clearly stated that it has "never considered including Bitcoin in foreign exchange reserves." In response to written inquiries from National Assembly members and Planning and Finance Committee member Cha Gye-geun on the 16th, the Bank of Korea stated, "We believe it is necessary to approach the issue of including Bitcoin in foreign exchange reserves with caution." This is the first time the Bank of Korea has expressed its position on the issue of Bitcoin reserves.

The Bank of Korea's negative stance is primarily due to the high volatility of Bitcoin prices. In this regard, the Bank of Korea pointed out, "If the virtual asset market becomes unstable, Bitcoin may face a sharp increase in transaction costs during the monetization process." Additionally, the Bank of Korea stated, "We believe Bitcoin does not meet the International Monetary Fund (IMF) standards for foreign exchange reserve calculations." For these reasons, the Bank of Korea replied, "As of now, we have never discussed or considered including Bitcoin in foreign exchange reserves." The Bank of Korea also added, "It is understood that some countries, such as the Czech Republic and Brazil, hold a positive attitude towards this, but the European Central Bank (ECB), the Swiss National Bank, and the Japanese government have all expressed opposition."

Former Federal Congressman from São Paulo, Brazil, Submits Bill to Legalize Bitcoin Salary Payments

On March 17, former Federal Congressman Luiz Phillipe of Orleans-Braganza from São Paulo, Brazil, submitted a bill to the Brazilian Congress seeking to legalize salary payments in Bitcoin. This politician proposed legislation allowing Brazilian workers to receive salaries and labor rights in cryptocurrency.

The bill aims to allow workers to receive up to 50% of their wages and benefits in digital assets. Notably, the bill does not mandate the acceptance of Bitcoin but provides a legal basis for residents wishing to engage with emerging technologies. With the employer's consent, employees can choose to receive labor rights in Bitcoin and can terminate this payment method at any time. The bill also stipulates that 50% of the salary must still be paid in Brazilian reais to ensure currency practicality. However, this provision does not apply to freelancers, foreigners, and individual entrepreneurs, with relevant matters regulated by the Central Bank of Brazil. The proposal must pass a full House vote and majority approval before entering the Federal Senate for final review.

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Trump Promises to Make the U.S. a Bitcoin Superpower

On March 20, U.S. President Donald Trump delivered a pre-recorded speech at the Blockworks Digital Assets Summit in New York City, emphasizing that the U.S. will become the "undisputed Bitcoin superpower and global cryptocurrency capital." He announced plans to end the previous administration's regulatory restrictions on cryptocurrencies and called on Congress to pass legislation to establish clear rules for stablecoins and market structure to promote innovation and investment. Trump also mentioned recent initiatives, including hosting a White House Digital Assets Summit and establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve, aimed at consolidating the U.S.'s dominant position in the cryptocurrency space.

He stated that these measures would unleash economic growth potential and enhance the U.S.'s leading position in the global fintech sector.

7. Mining News

Thailand Seizes 63 Illegal Crypto Mining Devices, Stealing Electricity Worth Over $327,000

On March 17, officials from Thailand's Central Investigation Bureau (CIB) seized 63 illegal crypto mining machines, valued at approximately 2 million Thai baht ($60,000), found in three abandoned houses in Pathum Thani. Local residents complained about unidentified individuals stealing electricity from power poles and transformers in the area, prompting officials to conduct a raid. Locals suspected that the stolen electricity was being used for cryptocurrency mining operations hidden in the abandoned buildings. Investigators estimate that the stolen electricity from these three houses could result in losses of over 11 million Thai baht ($327,000) for the electricity authority.

8. Bitcoin News

Global Corporate and National Bitcoin Holdings Dynamics (This Week's Statistics)

1. El Salvador
   On March 15, El Salvador added one Bitcoin to its reserve fund. Over the past 7 days, El Salvador has increased its holdings by 13 Bitcoins, bringing its total to 6,117.18 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $515.5 million.

2. Lazarus Group / North Korea
   The Lazarus Group currently holds 13,562 Bitcoins, pushing North Korea's Bitcoin reserves above those of El Salvador and Bhutan, making it the third-largest Bitcoin holder globally, behind the U.S. and the U.K.

3. Strategy
   From March 10 to 16, Strategy increased its holdings by 130 Bitcoins, bringing its total to 499,226 Bitcoins, with an average purchase price of $82,981. Additionally, the company plans to issue 5 million preferred shares to raise funds to continue executing its Bitcoin reserve strategy.

4. Metaplanet
   Metaplanet issued 2 billion yen (approximately $13.38 million) in zero-interest bonds to purchase more Bitcoins and announced an increase of 150 Bitcoins, bringing its total holdings to 3,200 Bitcoins.

Analysts: Bitcoin is Experiencing "Shakeout" Rather Than the End of a Four-Year Cycle

On March 16, Bitcoin's current price has dropped 22% from the historical high of $109,000 set on January 20, Trump's inauguration day. Despite investor sentiment repeatedly falling into the "extreme fear" zone, crypto analysts generally believe that the Bitcoin bull cycle has not ended, and this drop may be a "shakeout"—a sharp decline triggered by concentrated profit-taking by bulls, followed by a rapid rebound.

Bitfinex analysts pointed out, "Multiple key technical indicators have turned bearish, raising speculation about an early end to the bull market. However, the four-year cycle of Bitcoin remains a key factor; history shows that pullbacks during bull market cycles are normal, and this is more likely a shakeout than the beginning of a bear market. The bottom for Bitcoin may align with the U.S. stock market (especially the S&P 500), with $72,000 to $73,000 remaining a key support range, but global bond yields and stock market trends will dominate Bitcoin's next movements. Trade war risks have been partially priced in, but long-term economic pressures may suppress sentiment."

Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev stated, "Although Bitcoin's four-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) has dropped to a historical low of 8%, the halving event remains crucial for long-term price trends. The halving in April 2024 will reduce the block reward to 3.125 BTC, and since then, Bitcoin has accumulated over a 31% increase. While institutional adoption and ETF purchases have become the main driving force over the past year, the halving effect will continue to impact the market."

Analysts: Bitcoin Bull Market May Return in June, with a Median Target Price Expected to Reach $126,000

On March 16, Bitcoin has dropped 30% since its peak in mid-January, but network economist Timothy Peterson believes the bull market may return. He stated, "Currently, Bitcoin's trading price is close to the lower end of its historical seasonal range. Bitcoin's annual performance has almost always occurred in two months: April and October, which means Bitcoin is entirely capable of setting a new historical high before June, with a median target price of $126,000."

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Shen Yu: Strategy Amplifies Bitcoin's High Volatility by 2.5 Times to the U.S. Stock Market, Professional Institutions Use This High Volatility for Arbitrage

On March 17, Shen Yu, co-founder and CEO of Cobo, stated that Strategy (MSTR) cleverly designed to amplify Bitcoin's high volatility by 2.5 times to the U.S. stock market.

Professional institutions utilize this high volatility for arbitrage, gaining short-term profits; MSTR raises cash through issuing convertible bonds and ATM offerings to accumulate large amounts of Bitcoin; ordinary shareholders bear the risks of severe stock price fluctuations and short-term declines but passively gain "Bitcoin earnings" as the number of Bitcoins per share increases; Bitcoin holders benefit from continuous market capital inflows and rising Bitcoin prices.

CZ: Holding Bitcoin Surpasses 99% of Market Participants, the Last 1% of Winners Need to Make Extraordinary Efforts

On March 17, Binance founder CZ responded to EmperorBTC's views on social media, stating that only 5% of people in the market can survive long-term in the crypto space, among which:

• 4% are actively trading or involved in projects but still underperform compared to Bitcoin.

• Only 1% can truly outperform Bitcoin, which requires extraordinary effort.

CZ emphasized that long-term holding of Bitcoin can surpass 99% of crypto market participants, while also outperforming most traditional assets with almost no need for active trading.

GSR Co-founder: Bitcoin's Return to a Stable Zone is Just a Matter of Time, the Bull Market is Still On

On March 18, GSR co-founder and Yellow founder stated, "Bitcoin's value remains unchanged; it is still $100,000, and now it is just discounted by 20% due to risks and uncertainties. Bitcoin's return to a stable zone is just a matter of time. If we eliminate all uncertainties, Bitcoin will appreciate. We are in a bull market."

Despite President Donald Trump's sudden shift to support the crypto industry, his administration's aggressive tariff policies have driven investors away, with Bitcoin dropping over 20% from the historical high set on January 20, Trump's inauguration day.

Meanwhile, as the VIX (an index measuring market volatility expectations) soared over 50% this month, investors are flocking to gold. Gold set a new record of $3,000 per ounce in March. Sirkia, discussing Bitcoin's investment attributes, stated, "In the eyes of institutions, Bitcoin is not viewed as a long-term asset like gold."

Cathie Wood: Most Memecoins May Go to Zero, Bitcoin Could Reach $1 Million by 2030

On March 19, Cathie Wood stated that most Memecoins may ultimately become "worthless" and warned investors to be cautious.
She pointed out that the combination of blockchain technology and AI is giving rise to "millions" of Memecoins, but ARK's private funds will not invest in these assets. Wood believes that Memecoins may evolve into "digital collectibles," with only a few able to withstand the test of time, including the Memecoin launched by Trump.
Additionally, she reiterated her bullish outlook on mainstream crypto assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, predicting that Bitcoin could surpass $1 million by 2030.

Bitwise CIO: Continuously Buying Bitcoin During Crisis Moments Typically Yields High Returns Within a Year

On March 19, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that Bitcoin's response to crisis moments—such as the recent tariff-driven pullback by President Trump—depends on Wall Street's valuation of the asset and its "invisible hand" effects. Although Bitcoin is often referred to as a long-term hedge asset, it tends to experience sharp pullbacks during short-term volatility periods, which frustrates many investors, with Bitcoin's average decline exceeding that of the S&P 500 by 30%. However, those who continue to invest or buy more stocks after a pullback typically see average returns of up to 190% in the following year; this "drop then rise" pattern is one of the common trends in the cryptocurrency market.

10x Research: Easing U.S. Inflation Concerns, Bitcoin Expected to Rebound Above $90,000

On March 19, 10x Research CEO Markus Thielen stated that despite widespread investor concerns, Bitcoin is likely to rebound above $90,000 due to easing U.S. inflation worries. He added, "Due to oversold prices, we can see some counter-trend rebounds, and the Federal Reserve is likely to take a dovish stance, which is some fine-tuning by policymakers. This will keep BTC in a broader consolidation range but could very well return to $90,000."
Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev noted that traders and investors will be watching for any news regarding the end of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) plan, as this could increase liquidity, with the Fed's upcoming decisions likely being a major catalyst for further movements. If Chairman Powell takes a dovish stance, Bitcoin could soar in a new bullish momentum.

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