trade

4E: The escalation of the trade war threatens to overwhelm the benefits of slowing inflation, leading to declines in both the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market

ChainCatcher news reports that, according to 4E monitoring, the threat of an escalation in the China-U.S. tariff war has overshadowed the positive effects of slowing inflation. Investor concerns have taken precedence, and U.S. stocks failed to maintain Wednesday's significant rebound. On Thursday, the three major indices at one point dropped by at least 5%, although the decline narrowed towards the end of trading. By the close, the S&P 500 index fell by 3.5%, having at one point dropped by 6.3%, nearing the 7% first-level circuit breaker, marking the largest intraday drop since March 2020; the Nasdaq fell by 4.31%, and the Dow Jones by 2.5%. Major tech stocks collectively declined, with the seven giants index dropping by 6.67%.In the cryptocurrency market, the strong rebound from the previous day reversed sharply last night alongside the U.S. stock market. Bitcoin fell from $82,000 to a low of $78,464, nearly erasing all gains from the previous day. As of the time of writing, it is reported at $80,258, down 2.67%. Among the top ten mainstream coins, Ethereum performed the weakest, influenced by whale sell-offs and the decoupling of sUSD, briefly falling below $1,500. Before the deadline, it is reported at $1,541, down 6% in nearly 24 hours.In the forex commodities sector, the U.S. dollar index fell by 1.89%, marking the largest single-day drop since 2022. Oil prices dropped over 3% due to weak supply and demand expectations. Risk aversion surged, with gold reaching $3,220, setting a new historical high.Latest data shows that the U.S. March CPI fell short of expectations across the board, but the impact of tariffs has yet to be fully realized, which may soothe investors in the future. As Trump's chaotic tariff policies continue to disrupt the market, expectations of a tightening global supply chain have intensified, raising broader concerns about an economic recession. The market remains skeptical about whether the 90-day tariff delay can lead to substantial negotiation outcomes.

Trader Eugene: The recent structural decline of active developers is concerning, and the crypto market is陷入 a self-reinforcing cycle in the short term

ChainCatcher news, trader Eugene posted, "The introduction of global trade tariffs marks a change in the world order that has not been seen in over 50 years. Free trade has always been a key factor driving productivity and economic growth, contributing to the largest long-term bull market in history. The shift from openness to a protectionist stance will have profound effects, which will take years to gradually manifest, unless Trump completely abandons his tariff plans. I think the likelihood of that is very low. This will pose significant long-term resistance to global risk assets.In terms of cryptocurrency, the recent structural decline in active developers may be the most concerning thing. In the last cycle, we could observe developer activity and feel reassured because we knew our industry was still benefiting from long-term tailwinds. Fast forward 2-3 years later, and we have not produced anything particularly interesting or important, and the outlook for the future is even worse than it was then.In the last cycle, we looked forward to the launch of ETFs and a better regulatory environment under government support for cryptocurrencies as a light at the end of the tunnel. Now that these have been realized, but (once again) have failed to meet expectations, I see no future that can free cryptocurrency from its inherent 'Ouroboros' (self-circling, self-consuming dilemma).In the coming weeks to months, I hope to reduce operations in the cryptocurrency space, whether bullish or bearish, as I believe this is the wisest choice. Being a believer waiting for a new bull market is no longer contrarian thinking. However, starting to explore new greenfields (undeveloped areas) is indeed contrarian.For me, the only bright spot is that the use cases and global acceptance of Bitcoin are stronger than ever, which may encourage believers to continue hoarding Bitcoin and achieve decent returns (I hope so). The idea of Bitcoin reaching $1 million per coin by 2035 is not a fantasy in my view."
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