ChainCatcher news, BNP Paribas analyst Andrew Hespie stated that U.S. employment in November may rebound, but the non-farm payroll report may be ambiguous enough to merely support the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates in December. The forecast for new jobs is expected to reach 225,000, higher than the consensus estimate of 214,000 in a Wall Street Journal survey.Hespie expects the 12,000 new jobs figure suppressed in October due to hurricanes and the Boeing strike to be revised. Uncertainty ahead of the U.S. elections may also have somewhat restrained hiring activity in October. Hespie added that adverse weather may have limited the labor force participation rate in October, and the rebound in November could see the unemployment rate rise from 4.1% to 4.2%. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to 4E monitoring, U.S. stocks fell into anxiety before the non-farm data release on Thursday, with the market cooling off at high levels, and all three major indices closed lower. The Dow Jones fell by 0.55%, the Nasdaq fell by 0.18%, and the S&P 500 index fell by 0.19%. Most large tech stocks rose, with Tesla up over 3%, reaching a two-year high.The cryptocurrency market reached a historic high after Trump announced the nomination of a crypto supporter as the chairman of the U.S. SEC, leading to a significant market surge. Bitcoin's price broke through the milestone of $100,000, peaking around $105,000, then pulled back sharply, crashing over 8% this morning, briefly touching $90,500 before quickly rebounding. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is quoted at $98,240. The Bitcoin flash crash did not affect altcoins, which generally performed strongly, indicating market confidence in altcoins.In the forex commodities sector, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week exceeded expectations, and the "non-farm eve" dollar index fell about 0.6%, showing a volatile downward trend throughout the day, with most non-U.S. currencies rising. OPEC+’s decision to delay the production increase plan until April next year was in line with expectations, leading to profit-taking sell-offs, and international oil prices ultimately fell by over 0.30%. Gold prices dropped on Thursday as U.S. Treasury yields strengthened after the weekly jobless claims data was released, with spot gold dipping nearly 1% at its lowest.On Thursday, economic data showed that the U.S. labor market continues to cool steadily, with the market focusing on Friday's non-farm employment data to understand the Fed's stance on interest rate cuts. Currently, the FedWatch tool shows that the market expects a 70.1% probability of a rate cut by the Fed this month. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, gold commodities, and forex, recently launching a USDT stablecoin wealth management product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing investors with a potential hedging option. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and allocate assets reasonably.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, according to CME's "Fed Watch," the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points by November is 93.1%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 6.9%. The probability of maintaining the current rate by December is 5.2%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 94.8%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi, Tim Horan, Chief Investment Officer of the Fixed Income Department at Chilton Trust, stated that strong job creation confirms the Federal Reserve's actions and indicates that a soft landing is imminent.Tim Horan mentioned that the unexpectedly high 254,000 new non-farm jobs in September "allows the Federal Reserve to be absolutely pragmatic," even considering pausing (rate cuts) in November "to digest the election results without having to worry about falling behind the curve." With the job market performing quite well, the Federal Reserve can calmly adjust monetary policy, understanding how elected officials plan to handle government spending.Tim Horan stated that although officials avoid commenting on fiscal policy, "the Federal Reserve has to worry" about the continuously expanding national debt.

ChainCatcher News, the U.S. September non-farm payroll report will be released at 20:30 Beijing time tonight.The U.S. September unemployment rate is expected to be 4.2%, and the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment figure for September is expected to be 140,000.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that the non-farm payroll report could provide a clear signal regarding the magnitude of the Federal Reserve's first rate cut, whether it be 25 basis points or 50 basis points, with market pricing immediately rising to 90%. However, this non-farm payroll report did not adequately address this issue, and currently, the market pricing for a 25 or 50 basis point cut is "split down the middle."Overall, the non-farm data has not deteriorated enough to shift the baseline expectation to a 50 basis point cut, but considering the revised data, it is still insufficient to convincingly dispel speculation about a larger rate cut.

ChainCatcher news, after the non-farm payroll report was released, traders still believe that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in June, with a probability of about 30% for a rate cut starting in May. (Jin Ten)