Federal Reserve's Mouthpiece: Speculation on Rising Neutral Interest Rates May Delay Fed Rate Cuts
ChainCatcher news, Nick Timiraos recently wrote that amid the debate over whether and when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, another important discussion is unfolding: where will interest rates go in the long term? The key to the issue lies in the neutral interest rate: the rate that balances the supply and demand for savings while ensuring economic growth and stable inflation. The neutral interest rate is sometimes referred to as "r*" or "r-star," and it cannot be directly observed but can only be inferred. Each quarter, Federal Reserve officials forecast long-term interest rates, which is essentially their estimate of the neutral interest rate. Some now believe there is reason for the neutral interest rate to rise, potentially altering a wide range of asset prices, as the economy is strong and inflation is "lackluster."However, the current debate over the neutral interest rate may not have any short-term impact on the Federal Reserve, as current rates are above nearly all estimates of the neutral interest rate. This means that current rates are suppressing economic growth and price increases, and future nominal rates are more likely to decline rather than rise. If the U.S. economy continues to remain strong while inflation remains stubborn, it could trigger market speculation about a rise in the neutral interest rate, leading to the belief that current rates are not as restrictive. From this perspective, the Federal Reserve has even less reason to cut rates.Another scenario is that if inflation resumes its downward trend, discussions about the neutral interest rate will shift focus to the extent of the Federal Reserve's subsequent rate cuts. Nick states that there is no doubt the Federal Reserve wants to "normalize policy," but to what extent will they "normalize"? They will not stay at the 5% level, but they also will not continuously drop to 2.5%. They (might) feel more comfortable stopping in the range of 3% or 4%, but there is no conclusion yet. Interest rate futures indicate that the Federal Reserve funds rate will stabilize around 4% in the coming years.