ChainCatcher news, according to Matrixport analysis, the correlation between the rise in global liquidity and the increase in Bitcoin prices has certain limitations. The global liquidity indicator, measured by the total money supply of 28 central banks (in USD terms), although visually correlated with Bitcoin price trends, has its predictive accuracy questioned due to the non-stationarity of the time series and scale differences.The analysis points out that while the growth of money supply may have a lagging effect on the Bitcoin market, this lag time lacks strong theoretical support. Furthermore, although the correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq has slightly increased in recent years, it remains below the 60% peak during COVID, indicating that Bitcoin trading is more driven by its own dynamics rather than acting entirely as a proxy asset for tech stocks.Matrixport believes that the broad consolidation of Bitcoin prices may continue, and solely relying on liquidity indicators to predict market trends may not be reliable enough. In contrast, focusing on native driving factors of cryptocurrencies or macro variables with direct policy impacts (such as political leaders supporting cryptocurrencies) may be more valuable. Although market perceptions may have mathematical flaws, their widespread acceptance could still have a tangible impact on market behavior.

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, despite Bitcoin's recent drop of 30% from its historical high of $109,350, reaching a four-month low of $76,700 on March 11, four key indicators suggest that this round of adjustment may have ended.First, the current adjustment is fundamentally different from the bear market in November 2021. During the 2021 bear market, Bitcoin plummeted 41% from $69,000 to $40,560 within 60 days, while the current adjustment is more similar to the 31.5% pullback in June 2024. A true bear market requires at least a 40% decline, which has not yet been reached.Second, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen from 109.2 at the beginning of 2025 to 104, contrasting sharply with the strengthening of the dollar during the bear market at the end of 2021. Analysts point out that Bitcoin typically shows an inverse correlation with the dollar index, and the current weakening of the dollar is favorable for stabilizing Bitcoin prices.Third, the derivatives market shows healthy signs. Despite a 19% price drop from March 2 to March 11, the annualized premium for Bitcoin futures remains at 4.5%, well above the negative premium levels seen during the bear market in June 2022. Meanwhile, the funding rate for perpetual contracts is close to zero, indicating a balance in long and short leverage demand, with no excessive short-selling demand typical of a bear market.Fourth, market concerns are primarily focused on the potential government shutdown in the U.S. on March 15 and the bubble risk in the artificial intelligence sector. Several publicly traded companies with market capitalizations exceeding $150 billion have significantly pulled back from their highs, including Tesla (-54%), Nvidia (-34%), and TSMC (-26%). This risk sentiment has led to a short-term adjustment in Bitcoin.Additionally, early warning signs of a crisis in the U.S. real estate market may accelerate the flow of funds into scarce assets. Analysts believe that factors such as the weakening dollar, historical data indicating that a 30% price adjustment is insufficient to determine a bear market, the resilience of the Bitcoin derivatives market, market volatility due to government shutdown risks, and signs of a crisis in the real estate market will all support Bitcoin's return to the $90,000 level.Currently, Bitcoin has rebounded from its lows, and market participants are closely monitoring the progress of negotiations on the U.S. debt ceiling. There are divisions within the Republican Party regarding defense and immigration spending issues. If an agreement is reached, the risk asset market, including Bitcoin, may respond positively.

ChainCatcher news, a certain crypto KOL analyzed: "The price trend of Bitcoin is closely related to economic indicators. If a recession occurs, Bitcoin may drop to around $50,000; if there is no recession, the expected bottom price range is between $70,000 and $75,000."In response, Binance co-founder Zhao Changpeng stated on platform X: "I believe this analysis only applies to the short term."

ChainCatcher, a certain crypto KOL, analyzed: "The price trend of Bitcoin is closely related to economic indicators. If a recession occurs, Bitcoin could drop to around $50,000; if no recession happens, the expected bottom price range is between $70,000 and $75,000."In response, Binance co-founder Zhao Changpeng stated on the X platform: "I believe this analysis only applies to the short term."

ChainCatcher news, Real Vision crypto analyst Jamie Coutts stated that a weaker dollar could drive Bitcoin stronger, but there are two key indicators that may raise concerns in the short term. "Although my framework is becoming bullish with the dollar plummeting, two indicators still raise alarms: the U.S. Treasury volatility (MOVE index) and corporate bond spreads."Coutts described Bitcoin as a "game" between central banks, and despite these concerning indicators, the overall outlook remains "cautiously bullish."The MOVE index is a measure of expected volatility in the U.S. Treasury market. Coutts noted that while the MOVE index remains stable, it is on an upward trend. Rising Treasury volatility could lead to further tightening of liquidity, while corporate bond spreads have widened for three consecutive weeks. A significant reversal in corporate bond spreads typically coincides with Bitcoin price peaks.Coutts concluded that overall, these indicators pose a negative signal for Bitcoin. "However, the depreciation of the dollar—one of the largest monthly depreciations in the past 12 years—remains the main driving force in my framework."

ChainCatcher news, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju posted on social media, "Bitcoin on-chain indicators show that we are currently at the tipping point between a bull market and a bear market.I expect this to be the longest bull market in history, but I could be wrong. We need at least another month of data to confirm whether we are entering a bear market. If demand does not recover, the indicators may completely show a downward trend.According to typical cycles, the bull market should last until April 2025------I mentioned this back in May 2024. The next month or two will be a critical turning point for the Bitcoin market.If every indicator confirms a downward trend, I will admit I was wrong and publish relevant content. But as I said before, I believe the probability of Bitcoin falling below $77,000 is low. Even in the worst-case scenario, I think Bitcoin will consolidate around $77,000 for a few months before rising again.I believe that heavily leveraging directional bets------whether long or short------is not a good choice right now."

According to ChainCatcher's message, Lin Chen, the head of Asia-Pacific business at Deribit, stated that based on data and indicators, the market has officially transitioned from a bull market to a bear market, with an unfavorable short-term outlook and significant selling pressure expected during any rebounds.However, from a long-term perspective, she remains optimistic, believing that when the macro environment (including tariffs, inflation, interest rate cuts, geopolitical conflicts, and breakthroughs in artificial intelligence technology) improves, the Bitcoin market will see another upward trend.As an industry practitioner holding Bitcoin, Lin Chen plans to continue holding Bitcoin in the coming months, generating income by selling call options and purchasing a small amount of long-term put options to increase her spot holdings.

ChainCatcher news, according to Assure DeFi CEO Chapo's analysis, the market value to realized value (MVRV) indicator of Bitcoin suggests that there is still room for Bitcoin to rise in this cycle. Chapo expects Bitcoin's MVRV to reach 3.2 by 2025, implying that Bitcoin will experience another bull market in 2025. In April 2021, Bitcoin's MVRV reached this level when the price of Bitcoin was $58,253.Currently, Bitcoin's MVRV is 1.95, with a price of $84,416. Chapo points out that an increase in MVRV usually indicates that more holders are starting to take profits, and the market may experience significant volatility as it approaches the cycle peak. However, CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno warns that all valuation indicators are currently in a correction range, and Bitcoin may face more downward pressure before continuing to rise.

ChainCatcher news, CryptoQuant research director Julio Moreno posted on social media that it cannot be said that Bitcoin's price has bottomed out; all valuation indicators have entered the adjustment range, and this process may take more time.For example, MVRV is below its 365-day moving average (each time it breaks below requires time to adjust).It is reported that MVRV is a relative indicator that represents the ratio of market cap (MV) to realized cap (RV).

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, the crypto market experienced a significant drop on Tuesday, with multiple on-chain indicators showing that Bitcoin prices have bottomed out.According to data from TradingView, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies reached $2.7 trillion, down nearly $1 trillion from the peak in December 2024. Several indicators suggest that Tuesday's sell-off may mark a local bottom.Andre Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise Europe, pointed out that the crypto asset sentiment index shows numerous signals of contrarian buying. The overall pessimism in liquidity, on-chain data, and the derivatives market indicates that downside risk is relatively limited. At these price levels, the risk-reward outlook appears quite favorable.

ChainCatcher news, Deutsche Bank analyst Volkmar Baur stated in a report that if the upcoming data shows a further decline in U.S. corporate confidence, the dollar may fall.Many U.S. companies initially reacted positively to President Trump's election victory, but the situation changed in January. Businesses became uneasy about Trump's "bombastic" announcements and some of the reversals within them. Several confidence indicators for February will be released in the coming days, including the New York Fed manufacturing index. "If there is a further decline, the dollar may face increasing resistance."

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, contributor J. A. Maartunn from the cryptocurrency data analysis platform CryptoQuant stated that the "Bitcoin Inter-exchange Flow Pulse" indicator is turning bearish, indicating that market risk appetite is declining, which may signal the beginning of a bearish phase.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, the current price trend of Ethereum (ETH) is similar to when it bottomed out last August, suggesting that a new round of increases may be on the horizon. Data shows that ETH has fallen 32% to $2,770 since mid-December 2024, significantly lagging behind Bitcoin's performance.Jake Ostrovskis, an over-the-counter trader at cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute, stated that despite market volatility over the weekend causing some funds to be liquidated, the demand for ETH in the over-the-counter market remains strong. Data indicates that net inflows into U.S. spot ETH ETFs reached $420 million this week, accounting for approximately 13% of the total inflows of $3.18 billion since their launch.In the options market, Deribit exchange has seen large bullish options trades, including a combination of call options with a strike price of $3,500 and a strike price of $5,000, expiring on December 26, 2025, indicating that investors are optimistic about ETH breaking through $5,000 by the end of the year.