ChainCatcher news, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju posted on the X platform that the Bitcoin bull market cycle has ended, for the following reasons:There is a concept in on-chain data called realized market cap. It works as follows: when BTC enters a blockchain wallet, it is considered a "buy," and when it leaves, it is considered a "sell." Using this idea, the average cost basis of each wallet can be estimated by multiplying it by the amount of BTC held, resulting in the total realized market cap, which is generally seen as the total capital that has entered the Bitcoin market through actual on-chain activity, while the market cap is based on the latest trading prices on exchanges.When selling pressure is low, even small purchases can drive up the price, thereby increasing the market cap. Strategy has taken advantage of this by issuing convertible bonds and using the proceeds to buy Bitcoin, resulting in the book value of their held Bitcoin growing far beyond the actual capital invested. However, when selling pressure is high, even large purchases cannot change the price; for example, when the Bitcoin trading price approaches $100,000, the market trading volume is huge, but the price hardly changes.The realized market cap shows how much actual money has entered the market, while the market cap reflects how prices respond. If the realized market cap is growing but the market cap is stagnant or declining, it indicates that capital is flowing in, but prices are not rising—this is a typical bearish signal. On the other hand, if the realized market cap is flat while the market cap soars, it suggests that even a small amount of new capital is pushing prices up—this is a bullish signal. What we are currently seeing is the former, where capital is entering the market, but prices are not responding, which is a typical characteristic of a bear market.In short: when small capital drives prices up, it is a bull market. When large capital cannot push prices up, it is a bear market. Current data clearly points to the latter. Selling pressure could ease at any time, but historically, a true reversal takes at least six months—therefore, a short-term rebound seems unlikely.

ChainCatcher message, CryptoQuant posted on platform X that the Bitcoin bull market score index has dropped to its lowest point in two years, at just 20. Bitcoin has fallen 23% from its peak, and history shows that strong rebounds only occur when the index is above 60. Prolonged low index levels are often associated with bear markets.

ChainCatcher news, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated on social media that the Bitcoin bull market cycle has ended, and a bear market or sideways price movement is expected for the next 6-12 months.

ChainCatcher news, Real Vision crypto analyst Jamie Coutts stated that a weaker dollar could drive Bitcoin stronger, but there are two key indicators that may raise concerns in the short term. "Although my framework is becoming bullish with the dollar plummeting, two indicators still raise alarms: the U.S. Treasury volatility (MOVE index) and corporate bond spreads."Coutts described Bitcoin as a "game" between central banks, and despite these concerning indicators, the overall outlook remains "cautiously bullish."The MOVE index is a measure of expected volatility in the U.S. Treasury market. Coutts noted that while the MOVE index remains stable, it is on an upward trend. Rising Treasury volatility could lead to further tightening of liquidity, while corporate bond spreads have widened for three consecutive weeks. A significant reversal in corporate bond spreads typically coincides with Bitcoin price peaks.Coutts concluded that overall, these indicators pose a negative signal for Bitcoin. "However, the depreciation of the dollar—one of the largest monthly depreciations in the past 12 years—remains the main driving force in my framework."

ChainCatcher news, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju posted on social media, "If you are panic selling right now, you might be a novice. A 30% pullback is quite common during a Bitcoin bull market: in 2021, Bitcoin experienced a drop of 53%, but still recovered and reached an all-time high."

ChainCatcher news, according to Decrypt, based on a recent report from global investment firm Bernstein, investors should prepare for further increases in Bitcoin-related assets and stocks. Analysts point out that as institutional funds continue to flow into the space, the Bitcoin bull market will persist.The report states: "The joint adoption by banks, institutional investors, corporations, and sovereign nations (either directly or through sovereign funds) makes Bitcoin a clear challenger to gold." Analysts added that the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund's purchase of Bitcoin through ETFs is positive for its future performance.The disclosed data shows that top institutions, including Jane Street Group, Citadel Advisors, and Morgan Stanley, have purchased hundreds of millions of dollars in Bitcoin ETFs. Bernstein analysts had previously predicted that Bitcoin would reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.

ChainCatcher news, Matrixport released a daily icon observation stating that since the bull market began at the end of 2022, Bitcoin has shown strong resilience, with 30-day price corrections rarely exceeding -10%, while monthly declines during bear markets often reach 30% or more.Last week, Bitcoin approached the -10% correction level, which is typically seen as a consolidation bottom in this bull market. In contrast, the +40% surges in March and November 2024 are considered opportunities for profit-taking.From the trend chart perspective, Bitcoin is currently still in the bull market phase. If the trend continues, a -10% correction may present a strategic buying opportunity.

ChainCatcher message, Greeks.live macro researcher Adam posted on X: "Affected by the sharp decline of U.S. stocks such as Nvidia and Tesla, cryptocurrencies have also undergone significant adjustments, with Bitcoin falling below $100,000 again, and altcoins experiencing even steeper declines, leading to a shift in market sentiment to pessimism.In terms of options data, short-term IV has rebounded slightly but remains at a low level, with the market's pricing for future volatility unchanged. The options skew and futures premium have also not shown significant changes. The mainstream view regarding this pullback is that it is influenced by the strength of the dollar and the decline of U.S. stocks, and the trend of Bitcoin has not changed; the bull market is still ongoing.If one chooses to buy the dip now, the short-term call option at $100,000 is very cost-effective, especially for Bitcoin's weekly call."

ChainCatcher news, Matrixport's weekly report shows that there are multiple potential threats that could undermine the current Bitcoin bull market. One significant concern comes from BlackRock, which stated that due to the decentralized nature of the Bitcoin protocol, it is "impossible to guarantee" that the supply cap of 21 million Bitcoins will remain unchanged. Additionally, new developments such as Google's announcement of its "Willow" quantum chip with 105 qubits have sparked discussions about potential long-term threats to Bitcoin's security.Federal Reserve members have recently raised their inflation expectations. This change is more driven by political considerations. Specifically, concerns about potential tariffs imposed by Trump (which economists generally believe to be inflationary) seem to have influenced their expectations. However, during Trump's first term, the impact of these tariffs on inflation was minimal. This suggests that the Fed's inflation expectations may not fully align with current economic realities, potentially creating room for flexibility in policy-making in the coming year.According to Matrixport's model, inflation is not expected to be a major issue next year, which may allow the Fed to maintain a dovish stance. However, based on past experience, Bitcoin bull markets often peak when regulatory pressures reach a critical point. As most regulatory uncertainties seem to be resolved, the risk of this Bitcoin bull market ending may depend on other factors.While the abandonment of near-zero interest rates in December 2021 was a significant change, recently, the Fed has indicated more than a year of intent to cut rates before implementing the first rate cut in September 2024. This situation introduces new uncertainties for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, as the Fed's response to Trump's potential fiscal policies could influence the trajectory of monetary policy.

ChainCatcher news, on-chain analytics company Glassnode disclosed data showing that although the significant price increases during Bitcoin bull markets are usually accompanied by extreme selling pressure, the severity of market pullbacks during each bull market has gradually diminished as the market size expands.The deepest pullback of this cycle occurred on August 5, 2024, with a decline of 32%. During most pullbacks, the Bitcoin price only fell 25% below local highs, indicating that the volatility of this cycle is among the lowest to date.This may reflect that the launch of spot ETFs has opened a huge demand window, while institutional investor interest continues to grow. The vast majority of short-term holders' supply (in terms of coin count) is operating "underwater" compared to their cost basis, but they have not endured extreme unrealized losses associated with market deterioration.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, Galaxy Research stated in a research report on Tuesday that the Bitcoin (BTC) bull market will continue, with BTC expected to break the $100,000 mark in the short term.The report indicates that the increasing adoption of Bitcoin by institutions and businesses, the possibility of establishing Bitcoin national reserves, and the new U.S. government's support for cryptocurrencies all suggest that Bitcoin will rise in the near and medium term. The launch of ETF options could enhance liquidity and potentially reduce volatility. This may attract large institutions into the market while stimulating retail demand.Galaxy Research director Alex Thorn stated that although the outgoing Biden administration may take some unsettling regulatory or enforcement actions that could make the market uneasy, the trend for Bitcoin over the next two years "seems unique and bullish," and the options market data is also bullish.

ChainCatcher news, Bitcoin Magazine CEO David Bailey expressed his views on social media, suggesting that the current Bitcoin bull market cycle may be significantly extended, breaking traditional market cycle patterns.Bailey pointed out that historically, there is usually about an 18-month "NgU" (Number Go Up, price increase) phase after a Bitcoin halving. However, with the current halving having occurred 6 months ago, he believes that this influx of capital is unlikely to peak within 12 months. Instead, Bailey predicts that this bull market cycle may need to last for 3 to 4 years before a cooling period occurs.

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, the latest analysis released by Philip Swift, founder of the on-chain data platform LookIntoBitcoin, on June 5 shows that global liquidity (M2) is approaching $100 trillion, which will be a favorable condition for the rise of Bitcoin prices in 2024.In dollar terms, M2 has now reached $94 trillion, setting a new historical high, which is $3 trillion higher than the historical peak of $69,000 for Bitcoin at the end of 2021. Since hitting a local low of $85 trillion at the end of 2022 (coinciding with the low point of the cryptocurrency bear market), M2 has rebounded by 10%.

ChainCatcher news, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju posted on social media, "Bitcoin is in the mid-cycle of a bull market. Its market cap is growing faster than the realized market cap, a trend that typically lasts for about two years. If this pattern continues, the bull market cycle may end in April 2025."

ChainCatcher news, Matrixport released a new report stating that Bitcoin is entirely driven by macro factors, with the derivatives market predicting that Bitcoin's volatility could reach 6% this week. Bitcoin has reached the end of a consolidation triangle, indicating that significant volatility is imminent.This week, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech, U.S. inflation data was released, and the tech-driven Nasdaq index hit an all-time high, setting the stage for substantial fluctuations in Bitcoin. The CPI data was slightly below expectations, and Bitcoin rose by 7%, showing that there is sustained buying power in the market.Bitcoin experienced a sell-off after the inflation data was released in March and April, but this week, with slightly optimistic (lower) inflation data, Bitcoin's price rose instead, breaking the previous correction pattern, which may signal the "return of the Bitcoin bull market."As the U.S. presidential election in November 2024 approaches, the upward trend of Bitcoin is expected to intensify. Historical data shows that during the last three elections, Bitcoin had an average increase of 192%, while the Nasdaq index had an average increase of 21%. The rebound of tech stocks and Bitcoin is very likely to play out again.

ChainCatcher news, cryptocurrency trader and analyst Rekt Capital stated that Bitcoin perfectly repeated its historical trend from 2016, showing a downward trend below the current e-accumulation range bottom within three weeks after the halving. Rekt mentioned that the re-accumulation range for this cycle is below the price of $61,081.However, Timothy Peterson, founder and investment manager of Cane Island Alternative Advisors, pointed out that based on the chart of Bitcoin's price decline from its all-time high (ATH) (measuring the drop from peak to trough over a specific time frame), the price could rise to nearly six times the current price by early 2025.Peterson stated, "Based on adoption and previous price retracement, we can speculate that the peak of this cycle will be between $175,000 and $350,000 within the next 9 months. Historically, we can say this bull market will end in January 2025."