K33 Crypto Briefing: Bitcoin Indicators Weaken, Market May Be on the Eve of a Trend Change

Original Title: "Bitcoin market in 'lethargic condition' not seen since before US election, says K33"

Author: Brian McGleenon

Compiled by: Tim, PANews

Report Overview

• Bitcoin remains in a low-volatility state, with risk-averse traders suppressing yields, trading volume, and futures premiums. However, K33 Research states that this situation typically does not last long.

• Analyst Vetle Lunde points out that while the pro-crypto Trump administration is a long-term positive factor, current market uncertainty still exists, and traders should remain cautious until a clear direction emerges.

Continued Low Volatility for Bitcoin

According to data from K33 Research, Bitcoin is still in a low-volatility state, with a slight weekly decline of 2%. Risk-averse traders have pushed yields, volatility, and trading volume down to lows not seen in months.

K33 Research director Vetle Lunde noted that while the pro-crypto Trump administration is good news for Bitcoin and the entire industry in the long run, short-term uncertainty is suppressing market activity.

In a report on Tuesday, Lunde stated: "All indicators for Bitcoin are softening, such as trading volume, yields, options premiums, and ETF fund flows, which have all returned to levels not seen before the election. In this sluggish state, volatility has dropped to multi-month lows."

Lunde emphasized that currently, 37% of the top 100 companies in the U.S. stock market have monthly volatility higher than Bitcoin, a level not seen since October 2023. However, he urged that such low-volatility periods typically do not last long, and traders should be prepared for sudden shifts.

He added: "Overall risk aversion indicates that traders are ready to cope with downward volatility, while the current moderate leverage levels suggest a smaller potential threat of cascading liquidations."

CME Bitcoin Futures Indicate Market Shift is Imminent

Lunde's analysis of CME Bitcoin futures shows that the recent futures premium rate has dropped below 5%, a situation that rarely occurs. Looking back at data from 2021 to 2025, low premiums typically coincide with weak market performance, a situation that may be influenced by the prolonged bear market of 2022.

In futures trading, the basis refers to the price difference between the futures and spot prices of the same asset. When futures prices are higher than spot prices, a premium occurs, usually indicating bullish market sentiment; conversely, when futures prices are lower than spot prices (a discount), it signals a downward trend.

He reiterated that Bitcoin tends to perform best when the basis is strong and urged the market to remain cautious in the current uncertain environment.