ChainCatcher message, recently Forbes published an article stating that the "possible reason" for the rise of Bitcoin is the market's expectation that Donald Trump will win the presidential election in two weeks, driving the strong performance of this cryptocurrency.

ChainCatcher message, Fed's Logan stated that if the economy meets expectations, a gradual rate cut is anticipated. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, semiconductor leader TSMC held a corporate briefing on the 17th of last year, announcing its Q3 financial report and Q4 financial forecast. The impressive results not only caused TSMC's ADR (American Depositary Receipt) to surge by 12% at one point, but also led to a significant increase in TSMC's stock price, reaching 1100 NTD during trading this morning, a rare historical high, closing at 1085 NTD, with an increase of 4.83%. TSMC's recently released Q3 financial report shows that the company's revenue and profits significantly exceeded market expectations.According to the latest data, the consolidated revenue for the quarter reached 759.69 billion NTD, indicating that the company's operational status remains robust. The strong global demand for artificial intelligence hardware is also one of the key factors driving TSMC's performance growth. Analysts point out that the ongoing AI boom will continue to enhance TSMC's revenue expectations and effectively alleviate market concerns about insufficient chip demand.

ChainCatcher News: The U.S. Department of Commerce announced yesterday that September retail sales exceeded expectations with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, highlighting the resilience of U.S. consumer spending, which continues to provide strong momentum for the U.S. economy. A series of robust economic data recently has reinforced market expectations for only a 25 basis point rate cut.According to 4E monitoring, after the data release, U.S. stocks opened higher but then fell, with the S&P reaching a new intraday high before turning down, and the Nasdaq also nearly erasing its early gains. However, the Dow Jones reached new intraday and closing highs, marking two consecutive days of gains. By the close, the S&P 500 was down 0.02%, the Nasdaq was up 0.04%, and the Dow was up 0.37%. The cryptocurrency market followed U.S. stocks with slight fluctuations; at the time of writing, Bitcoin was at 67,972, up 0.8%, and Ethereum was at 2,632, up 0.43%.In the forex and commodities sector, positive economic data pushed the U.S. dollar index to an 11-week high, rebounding 3.34% since October. The European Central Bank is expected to cut rates on Thursday, causing the euro to decline for four consecutive days to an 11-week low. Last week, U.S. EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased, indicating strong demand, which led to a rise of about 0.40% in international oil prices, halting a four-day decline and moving away from two-week lows. Spot gold benefited from uncertainties surrounding the U.S. elections and expectations of more monetary policy easing, approaching 2,700 dollars, setting a new historical high, with an increase of over 30% this year.Recent data shows that retail sales continue to grow, with better-than-expected non-farm payroll data, a stronger-than-expected unemployment rate, and a recent cooling trend in initial jobless claims. Coupled with the steady decline in U.S. inflation and the upward revision of long-term GDP growth rates beyond expectations, this provides strong support for the "soft landing" logic of the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, a new round of global rate cuts is accelerating, significantly improving financial market sentiment and generally increasing investors' risk appetite. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, commodities like gold, and forex. It recently launched a USDT stablecoin financial product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing investors with potential hedging options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin10, U.S. retail sales in September increased slightly more than expected, supporting the view of strong economic growth in the third quarter. U.S. retail sales month-on-month in September recorded 0.4%, while the unadjusted increase for August was 0.1%. Signs of economic recovery may not prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates again next month, but will reinforce expectations for a 25 basis point cut.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the European Central Bank has lowered the deposit facility rate from 3.5% to 3.25%, in line with market expectations. At the same time, the main refinancing rate and the marginal lending rate have been adjusted from 3.65% and 3.9% to 3.4% and 3.65%, respectively.

ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live researcher Adam posted on social media that as the U.S. election approaches, various statistical channels show Trump leading in the competition, but there remains significant uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election.Datalab options data shows that the at-the-money implied volatility (IV) for BTC during election week is 57%, while the at-the-money IV for the week before the election is only 47%, indicating a 10% IV differential for the election.The current term structure also reflects an implied market view: the market does not expect significant volatility before the election concludes. Market trading volume supports this, as even with a good upward trend this week, large players are reluctant to bet on further increases.

According to ChainCatcher news, leading global lithography system manufacturer ASML has released its Q3 2024 financial report and lowered its performance expectations for 2025, raising concerns among investors, which led to a more than 10% drop in its U.S. stock during trading. As a result, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell by more than 1%, and the stock price of semiconductor giant NVIDIA saw a decline of 5.7%, marking the largest single-day drop since September 6, 2024.According to the financial data released by ASML, the company's gross margin for Q3 was 50.8%, slightly above the market expectation of 50.7%. The new orders for Q3 amounted to only €2.63 billion, far below the market expectation of €5.39 billion.ASML expects its net sales for Q4 of FY 2024 to be between €8.8 billion and €9.2 billion, with the market expectation at €8.95 billion; the full-year net sales expectation remains at €28 billion, with the market expectation at €27.71 billion.ASML anticipates that net sales for 2025 will be between €30 billion and €35 billion, while the market expectation is €35.94 billion. The gross margin expectation for FY 2025 has been lowered to a range of 51% to 53%, down from the previous expectation of 54% to 56%.

ChainCatcher message, according to CME Fedwatch data, after the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut in September, the federal funds futures market now sees the probability of further rate cuts of 175 basis points or more by June next year soaring to 77%. Traders now believe that the likelihood of the Federal Reserve making another significant rate cut during this period has returned to zero.The Federal Reserve's past predictions have been poor. Skeptics, including Wall Street Journal columnist James Mackintosh, point out that there is a wide divergence among Federal Reserve policymakers on where interest rates will ultimately settle.

ChainCatcher news, according to Matrixport's latest weekly report, macroeconomic and market sentiment fluctuations have led to a global capital return to traditional financial markets, intensifying downward pressure on crypto assets. The U.S. stock market's linkage to non-farm payroll data has driven BTC upward in the short term, but as a risk asset, BTC has retraced alongside U.S. stocks. Small and mid-cap tokens have outperformed BTC, indicating that the crypto market remains highly speculative during the capital return period. BTC is oscillating around $60,000, with significant selling pressure, and has not yet formed a stable upward trend. ETH demand is weak; despite support from decentralized applications, its price performance lags behind BTC.Rising global economic uncertainty has driven an increase in volatility in the options market, with institutions using options to hedge market risks. Ahead of the U.S. elections in November, volatility expectations in the options market have peaked, and institutions are positioning themselves in advance to avoid sharp fluctuations. The launch of Bitcoin ETFs has invigorated the crypto options market, with institutions inclined to profit from volatility trading. Crypto arbitrage opportunities have decreased, with capital shifting to traditional financial markets, leading to tight liquidity, making volatility trading an important strategy.

ChainCatcher news, the CPI report on Thursday showed that the U.S. September CPI exceeded expectations across the board, hindering the process of inflation retreat. Another piece of data indicated that the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to the highest level in over a year. The market is increasingly focused on the impact of a slowing labor market, with traders betting that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November has risen to 83.3%, while the probability of pausing the rate cut stands at 16.7%.According to 4E monitoring, after the data was released, U.S. stocks opened lower, attempted to turn positive at midday, and then collectively closed lower again. The Dow Jones fell by 0.14%, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.21%, and the Nasdaq decreased by 0.05%. The cryptocurrency market mostly declined, with Bitcoin once again falling below the $60,000 mark, quoted at $60,533 before publication. Non-U.S. currencies showed mixed results, with expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut heating up, leading to a slight decline in the dollar index; oil prices surged over 3.5% after two days of decline, influenced by tensions in the Middle East and Hurricane "Milton"; expectations for a rate cut provided support for gold prices, with spot gold rising over 0.9% at one point, ending a six-day decline, while spot silver rose over 2.2%, ending a three-day decline.The CPI increase in September exceeded expectations, intensifying discussions in the market about whether the Federal Reserve will pause rate cuts. However, the series of statements from Federal Reserve officials indicate that employment is the dominant factor in current policy, and the employment data for October will be crucial in determining the pace and extent of the Federal Reserve's easing. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, bulk gold, and foreign exchange. Recently, it launched a USDT stablecoin wealth management product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing investors with potential hedging options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets reasonably.

ChainCatcher news, analyst Paul Ashworth said in a report that considering today's CPI report, the core PCE inflation indicator for September may accelerate from 0.1% in August to 0.2%, but the annualized rate "will only be slightly above the Fed's 2% target." PCE data will not be released until the end of the month, and in addition, tomorrow's PPI report will help adjust expectations. Ashworth stated that if his prediction is correct, the pace of inflation (decline) "will support the Fed's more cautious rate cut of 25 basis points early next month." (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher News, a report from Bank of America analysts states that the European Central Bank's interest rate cuts may exceed market expectations. They indicated that the European Central Bank seems to have opened the door to gradual rate cuts in successive meetings, temporarily addressing the question of how quickly rates will be cut, but not answering how much the cuts will be. "Our answer is: far beyond general expectations and far beyond market pricing." Market pricing indicates that the European deposit rate will drop from the current 3.50% to 2.00%. Currently, the market has fully priced in a 25 basis point cut by the European Central Bank at the October meeting. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, on Wednesday local time, the ADP employment report, known as the "little non-farm," was released, showing employment data exceeding expectations and a significant improvement compared to the previous month. This indicates that despite some signs of weakness in the overall U.S. employment, it remains generally stable, and the market continues to accept the logic that the Federal Reserve does not need to make significant interest rate cuts next time. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East have escalated, increasing market concerns.According to 4E observations, U.S. stocks opened lower and then fluctuated slightly upward, with the Dow closing up 0.09%, the Nasdaq up 0.08%, and the S&P 500 up 0.01%. Continuing to be affected by the escalating tensions in the Middle East, risk appetite was suppressed, and Bitcoin briefly fell to $60,000, currently reported at $61,000, while Ethereum dropped over 4.3%, falling below $2,400 to its lowest level in nearly two weeks.In the forex and commodities market, non-U.S. currencies fell broadly, and the U.S. dollar index rose for three consecutive days this week, hitting its highest level in nearly three weeks; spot gold experienced significant volatility, with prices initially dropping sharply before rebounding. Although the "little non-farm" ADP data stimulated the rise of the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, the tensions in the Middle East provided support for gold prices. The market is concerned about Israel's strikes on Iran's oil industry, with oil prices rising nearly 4% at one point.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the U.S. September ADP employment figure is 143,000, expected to be 120,000, and the previous value has been revised from 99,000 to 103,000.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the U.S. August JOLTs job openings are 8.04 million, expected to be 7.655 million, and the previous value was revised from 7.673 million to 7.711 million.

ChainCatcher news, on Monday local time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated during a speech that if the economy performs as expected, there may be two more rate cuts this year, totaling 50 basis points. The market perceives Powell's overall remarks as "hawkish." Following Powell's speech, the market significantly reduced the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November.According to 4E observations, the three major U.S. stock indices fell after Powell's speech but began to rise in the final trading hours, ultimately closing slightly higher, with both the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 reaching new closing highs. Historically, U.S. stocks perform poorly in September, but this year the Dow rose 1.85%, the S&P 500 increased by 2.02%, and the Nasdaq gained 2.68%. Notably, the Dow and the S&P 500 recorded five consecutive monthly gains.The cryptocurrency market generally declined, with Bitcoin down 1.81% at $63,600, and Ethereum slightly down by 0.27%. Data shows that Bitcoin rose 7.35% in September, marking its best historical performance. It is worth noting that historically, whenever Bitcoin has risen in September, it has continued to rise until the end of the year. Gold fell by 0.47%, with a 4.74% increase in September; the U.S. dollar index rose by 0.30%, with a cumulative decline of 0.93% in September.After the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cut in September, the pace of global central bank rate cuts has accelerated, significantly improving the macro environment and increasing investors' risk appetite. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, bulk gold, and foreign exchange. This Friday, the U.S. non-farm payroll data for September will be released, providing further key insights into the U.S. economic situation and the Federal Reserve's rate cuts. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

ChainCatcher news, data released on Friday showed that the U.S. core PCE in August was below market expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The cooling inflation has strengthened market expectations for the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates in the coming months, with the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in November rising from 49.3% to 54.1%.According to 4E observations, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.59% last week, the S&P 500 index increased by 0.62%, and the Nasdaq rose by 0.95%, marking the third consecutive week of gains for all three major indices. Bitcoin saw a cumulative increase of nearly 4% last week, marking three weeks of gains and heading towards the best September in history. Under the expectation of continued rate cuts, the U.S. dollar index fell for four consecutive weeks, erasing all gains since mid-July. Spot gold hit a new historical high last week, rising 1.38%, with an increase of nearly 30% this year, surpassing the S&P 500 index's 20% gain, driven by rate cuts from major central banks like the U.S. and China, along with ongoing tensions in the Middle East.With inflation falling in Europe and the U.S., and the pace of global central bank rate cuts accelerating, this will provide strong momentum for the stock and cryptocurrency markets. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, bulk gold, and foreign exchange. U.S. non-farm payroll data for September will be released this Friday; if it performs strongly, it will further boost expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut in November. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

ChainCatcher news, data released on Thursday showed that the U.S. economy once again highlighted unexpected resilience, alleviating market concerns about the economy. At the same time, boosted by China's unexpected policy package, global financial markets surged.According to 4E observation, the three major U.S. stock indices rose, with the S&P 500 index closing up 0.40%, setting a new historical high; the Dow Jones rose 0.62%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 0.60%. Chinese concept stocks surged, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up 10.9%. Non-U.S. currencies rose broadly, while the yen resumed its downward trend; cryptocurrencies rose across the board, with Bitcoin up 2.56%, breaking through $65,000, and Ethereum up 0.96%.Gold, silver, and copper all soared, as major central banks like the U.S. and China cut interest rates, coupled with ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Spot gold's intraday gains expanded to 1%, once again setting a new historical high, with nearly a 30% increase this year; under China's stimulus policies, silver, a key industrial material, rose over 2.5%, reaching a 12-year high, and has increased 37% year-to-date.With global central banks cutting interest rates in succession and China's "policy package" igniting global optimism, combined with resilient U.S. economic data, investors' risk appetite has risen. 4E is a financial trading platform supporting assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, bulk gold, and foreign exchange. This Friday evening, the U.S. core PCE price index will be released, providing further key clues for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets reasonably.