expectation

4E: "The extent of 'reciprocal tariffs' far exceeds expectations, leading to declines in U.S. stocks and Bitcoin."

ChainCatcher news, according to 4E monitoring, Trump announced last night the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, adopting a dual-track system that combines "benchmark tariffs" and "one country, one tax rate," with rates exceeding market expectations. The U.S. stock market was initially optimistic due to the 10% benchmark tariff being lower than expected, with major indices closing up. However, after the specific high tax rates were announced, investors became concerned about the escalating risks of a global trade war, which could drag the U.S. economy into recession, leading to panic selling after hours, with stock index futures plummeting. As of the time of writing, S&P 500 futures were down over 2.79%, Nasdaq futures fell over 2.65%, and Dow futures dropped more than 1.9%.The cryptocurrency market fell across the board. Initially buoyed by optimistic sentiment regarding tariffs, global risk assets generally rose, with Bitcoin briefly soaring to $88,500. However, as more details were released, market sentiment turned sharply negative, and Bitcoin plummeted to yesterday's low, returning to around $83,000, with a 24-hour decline of over 1.8%. Ethereum fell from $1,957 to below $1,800. Most sectors in the market declined, with the Meme sector experiencing significant losses.In the forex and commodities market, the dollar fell throughout the day, down 0.65%; during the U.S. trading session, oil and gas prices rose, but after the tariff announcement, crude oil futures prices dropped by 1.0%; safe-haven sentiment drove gold prices to new highs, with London spot gold reaching $3,157, up about 0.7%.After Trump announced comprehensive new tariffs on 185 countries, U.S. stock index futures and major cryptocurrencies plummeted, triggering turmoil in global markets and widespread risk aversion. The scale and unpredictability of the tariffs have quickly shifted investors' focus to macroeconomic headwinds, prompting the market to reassess inflation trajectories, growth risks, and policy responses for the second quarter.

QCP Capital: Market expectations for the White House crypto summit have cooled, with attention shifting to tonight's non-farm payroll data

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that as the market anticipates the White House cryptocurrency summit, Trump has signed an executive order to establish a "strategic Bitcoin reserve and U.S. digital asset reserve" ahead of time. Although this move is widely expected to be beneficial for Bitcoin, the market has shown a typical "sell the news" reaction, with Bitcoin's price dropping from $90,000 to $85,000 after the signing.The timing of the signing caught the market off guard, especially for investors who had built positions in anticipation of a more optimistic outcome from the summit. Volatility has significantly decreased, and risk reversals have once again shifted towards bearish options, with previous bullish positions being rapidly closed.The sharp market drop may stem from the realization that there has not been an actual budget allocation for Bitcoin purchases recently. Initially, the reserve will mainly utilize the Bitcoin already held by the U.S. government, primarily from criminal or civil asset seizures. However, this does not rule out the possibility of continuing to accumulate Bitcoin in the future. The Treasury Secretary and Commerce Secretary have been authorized to explore budget-neutral strategies to acquire more Bitcoin, provided that it does not increase the burden on taxpayers.Although this is not the direct positive factor many were hoping for, it still has structurally positive implications for cryptocurrencies. The risk of random sell-offs of Silk Road Bitcoin disrupting the market has been eliminated, and the U.S. government's commitment to a long-term cryptocurrency strategy has been reaffirmed. As the announcement of the strategic Bitcoin reserve settles, market expectations for tonight's White House cryptocurrency summit have cooled, shifting the focus to tonight's non-farm payroll data.

4E: Trump's tariff exemptions fail to halt the decline of US stocks, and the cryptocurrency strategic reserve policy falls short of expectations, leading to a sharp drop in Bitcoin

ChainCatcher news, according to 4E monitoring, U.S. stocks continued to decline sharply on Thursday, with all three major indices falling. Trump's tariff policy made a latest concession, announcing a delay in tariffs on Canada and Mexico until April 2, but failed to alleviate market pessimism. The S&P 500 fell 1.78%, hitting a low since the election; the Dow Jones dropped 0.99%, and the Nasdaq plummeted 2.61%.The cryptocurrency market also showed weakness. The decline in U.S. stocks affected crypto assets, while crypto czar David Sacks stated that Trump has signed an executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, but the order only involves hoarding existing confiscated assets rather than direct purchases. "Hoarding old, not buying new" disappointed the market, causing Bitcoin to quickly drop to a low of $84,667, currently hovering around $88,000, down about 4.2% for the day. Altcoins generally followed Bitcoin lower, with Ethereum falling 4.68% to around $2,100.In the forex commodities sector, the U.S. dollar index fell for the fourth consecutive day due to tariff concerns; oil prices remained stable amid fluctuations influenced by U.S. tariffs and OPEC+ production increase plans; gold prices retreated due to profit-taking, with spot gold down 0.1%, ending a three-day streak of gains.The current market is increasingly weary of the uncertainty surrounding U.S. policies, especially feeling fatigued by the frequent statements from executive department members and the repeated adjustments to tariff policies. Investors are focusing on Friday's non-farm payroll report to gauge the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction, while the crypto market is also looking forward to the White House crypto summit on Friday for the latest guidance for the industry.
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