ChainCatcher news, according to 4E monitoring, Trump announced last night the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, adopting a dual-track system that combines "benchmark tariffs" and "one country, one tax rate," with rates exceeding market expectations. The U.S. stock market was initially optimistic due to the 10% benchmark tariff being lower than expected, with major indices closing up. However, after the specific high tax rates were announced, investors became concerned about the escalating risks of a global trade war, which could drag the U.S. economy into recession, leading to panic selling after hours, with stock index futures plummeting. As of the time of writing, S&P 500 futures were down over 2.79%, Nasdaq futures fell over 2.65%, and Dow futures dropped more than 1.9%.The cryptocurrency market fell across the board. Initially buoyed by optimistic sentiment regarding tariffs, global risk assets generally rose, with Bitcoin briefly soaring to $88,500. However, as more details were released, market sentiment turned sharply negative, and Bitcoin plummeted to yesterday's low, returning to around $83,000, with a 24-hour decline of over 1.8%. Ethereum fell from $1,957 to below $1,800. Most sectors in the market declined, with the Meme sector experiencing significant losses.In the forex and commodities market, the dollar fell throughout the day, down 0.65%; during the U.S. trading session, oil and gas prices rose, but after the tariff announcement, crude oil futures prices dropped by 1.0%; safe-haven sentiment drove gold prices to new highs, with London spot gold reaching $3,157, up about 0.7%.After Trump announced comprehensive new tariffs on 185 countries, U.S. stock index futures and major cryptocurrencies plummeted, triggering turmoil in global markets and widespread risk aversion. The scale and unpredictability of the tariffs have quickly shifted investors' focus to macroeconomic headwinds, prompting the market to reassess inflation trajectories, growth risks, and policy responses for the second quarter.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin10 data reports, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) stated that Trump announced "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2, exceeding market expectations. The reciprocal tariffs combine "carpet" tariffs with "one country, one tax rate," covering more than 60 major economies.Calculations show that if these tariffs are fully implemented, the effective tariff rate in the U.S. could rise significantly by 22.7 percentage points from 2.4% in 2024 to 25.1%, surpassing the tariff levels after the implementation of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in 1930.CICC believes that reciprocal tariffs may increase uncertainty and market concerns, exacerbating the risk of "stagflation" in the U.S. Estimates indicate that tariffs could push U.S. PCE inflation up by 1.9 percentage points and reduce real GDP growth by 1.3 percentage points, although they may also bring in over $700 billion in fiscal revenue. In the face of "stagflation" risks, the Federal Reserve may have no choice but to wait and see, making it difficult to cut interest rates in the short term. This will further increase the risk of economic downturn and add downward pressure on the market.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Fed's Daly stated that there is a reasonable expectation of two rate cuts in 2025.

ChainCatcher news, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman posted on the X platform stating that the image features in ChatGPT (such as image generation and processing) are being used far more than expected, even though the company's initial expectations were already high. As a result, the rollout of this feature for free users will be delayed for a period of time.

ChainCatcher news, Chicago Fed President and FOMC voting member Goolsbee warned that there are signs indicating that investors in the U.S. bond market are beginning to expect higher inflation, which would be a "significant danger signal" that could disrupt interest rate setters' plans for rate cuts.In the week prior to Goolsbee's remarks, a closely watched University of Michigan poll showed that U.S. households' long-term inflation expectations reached their highest level since 1993. Goolsbee stated, "If you see market-based long-term inflation expectations starting to change like the survey results from the past two months, I would consider that a significant danger signal that requires close attention." The five-year forward rate is currently at 2.2%, while the University of Michigan survey shows consumers expect a long-term inflation rate of 3.9%.Goolsbee indicated that if investors' expectations begin to align with those of U.S. households, the Fed will have to take action: "Almost regardless of the circumstances, you have to deal with this issue," he said.

ChainCatcher news, Frederik Ducrozet, head of macroeconomic research at Pictet Wealth Management, stated in a report that the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at tonight's meeting, and Fed Chair Powell may reiterate that there is no rush to cut rates. It is anticipated that the Fed will lower its GDP forecast for 2025, raise its inflation forecast, and acknowledge increased uncertainty.The dot plot is expected to show that the median expectation for two rate cuts this year remains unchanged, with risks leaning towards one rate cut. The Fed is expected to cut rates once in June, and due to inflation accelerating again, there will be no further cuts in 2025.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the initial value of the U.S. one-year inflation rate expectation for March is 4.9%, expected 4.2%, previous value 4.30%.In addition, the initial value of the U.S. five to ten-year inflation rate expectation for March is 3.9%, expected 3.4%, previous value 3.50%.The initial value of the U.S. Michigan University Consumer Confidence Index for March is 57.9, expected 63.1, previous value 64.7.

ChainCatcher news, Tangent co-founder Jason Choi expressed the view that "in the absence of specific reasons (such as expectations for ETFs or Trump), the trends of mainstream cryptocurrencies (mainly Bitcoin) will generally be linked to the performance of the U.S. stock market. As a speculator primarily focused on cryptocurrencies, my fundamental view is that aggressive positions should not be taken based on macroeconomic factors, but an understanding of the macroeconomy should provide a reference for existing aggressive positions."

ChainCatcher news, according to the New York Fed, the expectation of a deterioration in financial conditions over the next year is the strongest since November 2023, with the public anticipating significant increases in the prices of gasoline, rent, and food. The probability of missing debt payments is expected to reach its highest level since April 2020, with growing public concerns about the credit and job markets.

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated on Friday that the costs of currently adopting a cautious stance on monetary policy are "very, very low," but he also mentioned that these costs could rise if inflation expectations come under pressure. Although the standard reaction to one-time price increases caused by tariffs is to ignore them, this time may be different.Powell said, "If it (i.e., tariffs) turns into a series of events, and if the increases are larger, that will be important, and what really matters is what happens to long-term inflation expectations." Powell also pointed out that in 2019, the Federal Reserve had actually cut interest rates three times in response to the first tariffs imposed by the Trump administration and the economic slowdown that followed, "This is the result of these broad changes in economic policy, and not just tariffs."

ChainCatcher message, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the U.S. for February is 151,000, expected to be 160,000, and the previous value has been revised from 143,000 to 125,000. Slightly below expectations.

ChainCatcher News: U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Thursday to establish a digital asset reserve, retaining Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins seized in law enforcement actions without making new purchases. The lack of new purchases means that, for the time being, the so-called reserve is merely a strategic reserve and will not inject any buying pressure into the market. Deribit data shows that traders are feeling disappointed and have started to chase short-term put options on BTC, ETH, and SOL.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that as the market anticipates the White House cryptocurrency summit, Trump has signed an executive order to establish a "strategic Bitcoin reserve and U.S. digital asset reserve" ahead of time. Although this move is widely expected to be beneficial for Bitcoin, the market has shown a typical "sell the news" reaction, with Bitcoin's price dropping from $90,000 to $85,000 after the signing.The timing of the signing caught the market off guard, especially for investors who had built positions in anticipation of a more optimistic outcome from the summit. Volatility has significantly decreased, and risk reversals have once again shifted towards bearish options, with previous bullish positions being rapidly closed.The sharp market drop may stem from the realization that there has not been an actual budget allocation for Bitcoin purchases recently. Initially, the reserve will mainly utilize the Bitcoin already held by the U.S. government, primarily from criminal or civil asset seizures. However, this does not rule out the possibility of continuing to accumulate Bitcoin in the future. The Treasury Secretary and Commerce Secretary have been authorized to explore budget-neutral strategies to acquire more Bitcoin, provided that it does not increase the burden on taxpayers.Although this is not the direct positive factor many were hoping for, it still has structurally positive implications for cryptocurrencies. The risk of random sell-offs of Silk Road Bitcoin disrupting the market has been eliminated, and the U.S. government's commitment to a long-term cryptocurrency strategy has been reaffirmed. As the announcement of the strategic Bitcoin reserve settles, market expectations for tonight's White House cryptocurrency summit have cooled, shifting the focus to tonight's non-farm payroll data.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the dollar is hovering near a four-month low as investors remain cautious ahead of the upcoming key U.S. non-farm payroll report. Concerns over a slowdown in U.S. economic growth have led the market to price in expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, putting recent pressure on the dollar. This means that the employment data will become particularly important.Ipek Ozkardeskaya, an analyst at Swissquote Bank, stated in a report that weaker-than-expected employment data could further weaken the dollar. In the worst-case scenario, if job numbers fall below expectations while wage growth exceeds expectations, it would put the Federal Reserve in a position of facing an economic slowdown, but with limited room to provide support.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, regarding the market's decline following Trump's Bitcoin strategic reserve executive order, Presto Research's research director Peter Chung stated, "BTC did not exhibit a parabolic response, indicating that there is a certain amount of 'buy the rumor, sell the news' activity in the market. The news has just been released for an hour, so the market may fluctuate in the coming hours as it digests various conflicting forces."LVRG Research director Nick Ruck pointed out that traders "feel disappointed" because the Bitcoin reserve announcement "is not as optimistic as they hoped," since the funds for the reserves will come from Bitcoin obtained through criminal or civil asset seizures, rather than Bitcoin purchased by the government. This statement became a sell-off news event as the discrepancy in expectations reduced the buying pressure anticipated in the cryptocurrency market.Meanwhile, Presto's Chung noted that it is worth paying attention to whether the U.S. will mention how to acquire more Bitcoin in a budget-neutral manner, as well as more details on how to handle non-BTC assets.

ChainCatcher news, according to 4E monitoring, U.S. stocks continued to decline sharply on Thursday, with all three major indices falling. Trump's tariff policy made a latest concession, announcing a delay in tariffs on Canada and Mexico until April 2, but failed to alleviate market pessimism. The S&P 500 fell 1.78%, hitting a low since the election; the Dow Jones dropped 0.99%, and the Nasdaq plummeted 2.61%.The cryptocurrency market also showed weakness. The decline in U.S. stocks affected crypto assets, while crypto czar David Sacks stated that Trump has signed an executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, but the order only involves hoarding existing confiscated assets rather than direct purchases. "Hoarding old, not buying new" disappointed the market, causing Bitcoin to quickly drop to a low of $84,667, currently hovering around $88,000, down about 4.2% for the day. Altcoins generally followed Bitcoin lower, with Ethereum falling 4.68% to around $2,100.In the forex commodities sector, the U.S. dollar index fell for the fourth consecutive day due to tariff concerns; oil prices remained stable amid fluctuations influenced by U.S. tariffs and OPEC+ production increase plans; gold prices retreated due to profit-taking, with spot gold down 0.1%, ending a three-day streak of gains.The current market is increasingly weary of the uncertainty surrounding U.S. policies, especially feeling fatigued by the frequent statements from executive department members and the repeated adjustments to tariff policies. Investors are focusing on Friday's non-farm payroll report to gauge the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction, while the crypto market is also looking forward to the White House crypto summit on Friday for the latest guidance for the industry.