Hotcoin Research Market Insights: U.S. February PCE Exceeds Expectations, Market Still in Panic as Companies like GME Issue Bonds to Purchase BTC
Hotcoin Research Market Insights: March 24-28, 2025Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.84 trillion, with BTC accounting for 60.8%, or $1.73 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $233.4 billion, with a 7-day increase of 0.98%, of which USDT accounts for 61.88%.
This week, BTC's price has shown range-bound fluctuations, currently priced at $84,094; ETH has also shown range-bound fluctuations, currently priced at $1,902.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have declined while a few have risen, including: BERA with a 7-day increase of 28.09%, CRO with a 7-day increase of 27.92%, GRASS with a 7-day increase of 27.74%, and SAFE with a 7-day increase of 25.94%.
This week, the net inflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. was $196.4 million; the net outflow for Ethereum spot ETFs was $8.7 million.
On March 29, the "Fear & Greed Index" was at 26 (lower than last week), with the sentiment being: 3 days of fear and 4 days of neutrality.
Market prediction: This week the market has shown range-bound fluctuations, with sentiment remaining in fear. On-chain stablecoins have seen slight increases, the net inflow speed for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has slowed, and the net outflow speed for Ethereum ETFs has also slowed. The SOL chain's MEME shows signs of a comeback, with notable performance from Ghibli. The U.S. PCE index for February exceeded expectations, and the Trump administration threatened that if the EU and Canada jointly harm the U.S. economy, high tariffs will be imposed. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in May is 87.8%. It is expected that the market will maintain fluctuations during a period (April to June). Potential opportunities can be found in popular projects on BSC and SOL chains, and the "Hotcoin New Coin List" can be closely monitored for more wealth opportunities.
Understanding the Present
Weekly Major Events Review
On March 24, according to official news, Japanese listed company Metaplanet Inc. announced an additional purchase of 150 BTC, raising its total holdings to 3,350 BTC;
On March 23, according to DeFilama platform data, as of March 22, Ethena's TVL surpassed $6.5 billion, reaching a historic high of $6.558 billion. Among them, the supply of USDe reached 5.413 billion, and USDtb reached 1.142 billion;
On March 23, according to DefiLlama data, PancakeSwap's revenue in the past 24 hours reached $3.45 million, ranking third in the crypto revenue leaderboard, while Tether and Circle ranked first and second with 24-hour revenues of $18.37 million and $6.25 million, respectively;
On March 25, the crypto prediction platform Polymarket announced its official launch on the Solana network, allowing users to deposit using SOL. Previously, the platform mainly operated on the Polygon network and only supported USDC stablecoin for deposits;
On March 25, the Dogecoin Foundation officially launched the "Official Dogecoin Reserve" through its newly established commercial entity, completing the purchase of the first batch of 10 million DOGE;
On March 25, Bloomberg reported that the world's largest asset management company, BlackRock, announced the launch of Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETP) in Europe, continuing its successful experience with the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF (which has a scale of $48 billion);
On March 25, CPIC Investment Management, a subsidiary of China Pacific Insurance (CPIC) in Hong Kong, announced the launch of a dollar money market fund (MMF) based on HashKey Chain, which received subscriptions of $100 million on its first day, open to professional and institutional investors;
On March 26, according to Lookonchain monitoring, Hyperliquid liquidated 392 million JELLY (approximately $3.72 million) at a price of $0.0095 before delisting JELLY, with no losses and a profit of $703,000;
On March 27, several celebrities, including Musk and Altman, posted Ghibli-themed AI images on the X platform;
On March 27, GameStop announced plans to privately issue $1.3 billion of 0.00% convertible preferred notes (due 2030) to qualified institutional investors. Depending on market conditions, the company may authorize the initial purchasers to add up to $200 million of notes within 13 days. GameStop stated that the funds raised will be used for general corporate purposes, including purchasing Bitcoin according to the company's investment policy;
On March 27, official news announced that the Bitcoin ecosystem NFT project Taproot Wizards will open a Dutch auction tonight at 11 PM, starting at a price of 0.42 BTC, with prices decreasing by 0.01 BTC every 3 minutes. A total of 80 NFTs will be auctioned, supporting bids in Bitcoin and SOL;
On March 27, the airdrop query page for the Bitcoin ecosystem yield network Corn has been launched;
On March 28, the U.S. core PCE price index for February was 2.8%, with an expectation of 2.7%.
Macroeconomics
On March 25, U.S. President Trump reiterated at a cabinet meeting that he hopes the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates;
On March 27, Trump threatened that if the EU and Canada jointly harm the U.S. economy, the U.S. will impose high tariffs. Trump posted on social media that the tariffs would "far exceed current plans";
On March 28, according to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in May is 87.8%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 12.2%;
On March 28, official news announced that the SEC has officially withdrawn lawsuits against Kraken, Consensys, and Cumberland, and has released relevant notices;
On March 28, FOX Business reporter Eleanor Terrett stated that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has officially concluded its investigation into Crypto.com and will not take any enforcement action against the trading platform.
ETF
According to statistics, from March 24 to March 28, the net inflow of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs was $196.4 million; as of March 28, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $22.48 billion, currently holding $16.2 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $48.182 billion. The total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $96.526 billion.
The net outflow of U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs was $8.7 million.
Envisioning the Future
Upcoming Events
Southeast Asia Blockchain Week 2025 will be held from March 30 to April 5, 2025, in Bangkok, Thailand;
MEME.ing will host an offline event themed "Meme 2025 · PALAU" from April 2 to April 3, 2025, in Palau;
Foresight News will co-host the global cryptocurrency summit "BUIDL 2025" with The Block at the JW Marriott Hotel in Hong Kong on April 5, aiming to build an efficient cooperation and communication bridge for global crypto practitioners through strong bilateral media influence in the East and West;
ETHGlobal Taipei 2025 will be held from April 4 to April 6, 2025, in Taiwan;
The 2025 Hong Kong Web3 Carnival will be held from April 6 to April 9, 2025, at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre, Hall 5BCDE.
Project Progress
Investment management company VanEck will waive management fees for the Bitcoin spot ETF HODL from March 13 to March 31, 2025. If it exceeds $150 million before the deadline, the management fee for the excess will be 0.2%. After March 31, 2025, the management fee will revert to 0.2%;
The ZKsync Ignite Season 1 event will run from January 6 to March 31, during which 100 million ZK tokens will be allocated to DeFi users providing liquidity in DEX, lending, and Perps, with rewards available weekly;
The DAG-based order book DEX Vite Labs will close the Vite gateway in April, but users can still use community gateway operators and need to transfer funds to exchanges/community gateways.
Important Events
Binance will delist trading pairs of stablecoins that do not comply with MiCA standards for users in the European Economic Area (EEA) on March 31, 2025, to comply with regulatory requirements. Affected assets include USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, and PAXG. Stablecoin pairs that comply with MiCA standards (such as USDC and EURI) and fiat currency pairs (EUR) will remain available and unchanged;
New licensing rules in the Cayman Islands will take effect on April 1, 2025. Under the 2025 "Virtual Assets (Service Providers) (Amendment) Regulations," all entities providing virtual asset custody and trading platform services must obtain a license from the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority (CIMA). Existing virtual asset service providers (VASP) must submit a license application within 90 days after the effective date;
Japanese listed company Metaplanet will execute a 10-for-1 stock split on April 1, and the company will begin purchasing Bitcoin starting in April 2024.
Token Unlocking
Hooked Protocol (HOOK) will unlock 8.33 million tokens on April 1, valued at approximately $1.14 million, accounting for 1.67% of the circulating supply;
dYdX (ETHDYDX) will unlock 8.33 million tokens on April 1, valued at approximately $5.71 million, accounting for 1.13% of the circulating supply;
Conflux (CFX) will unlock 87.5 million tokens on April 1, valued at approximately $7.46 million, accounting for 1.71% of the circulating supply;
Gravity (G) will unlock 180 million tokens on April 5, valued at approximately $2.81 million, accounting for 1.5% of the circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core investment research hub of the Hotcoin ecosystem, focuses on providing professional in-depth analysis and forward-looking insights for global crypto asset investors. We have built a "trend assessment + value discovery + real-time tracking" integrated service system, providing precise market interpretations and practical strategies for investors at different levels through in-depth analysis of cryptocurrency industry trends, multi-dimensional assessments of potential projects, and all-day market volatility monitoring, combined with weekly live broadcasts of "Hotcoin Selected" strategies and daily news updates of "Blockchain Today." Leveraging cutting-edge data analysis models and industry resource networks, we continuously empower novice investors to establish cognitive frameworks and assist professional institutions in capturing alpha returns, jointly seizing value growth opportunities in the Web3 era.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment itself carries risks. We strongly advise investors to invest based on a complete understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of funds.
