ChainCatcher News: The U.S. February CPI year-on-year growth rate has dropped to a new low since last November, and the core CPI year-on-year growth rate has reached a four-year low. Inflation is below expectations across the board, easing concerns about "stagflation." Traders have increased bets on interest rate cuts, and market risk appetite is warming up.According to 4E monitoring, the three major U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance: the Dow Jones fell by 0.20%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.49%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq surged over 1.2%, driven by a strong rebound in tech stocks, with Tesla soaring over 7% and Nvidia rising over 6%. However, the market remains concerned that the slowdown in inflation may be temporary, as the Dow has seen three consecutive declines and the limited gains in the S&P reflect cautious market sentiment.The cryptocurrency market is warming up, with Bitcoin spiking to $84,539 at the moment the CPI was announced, then retreating to around $80,000 for support, and continuing to rebound. As of the time of writing, it has risen to $84,000, with a 24-hour increase of 2%. Other major tokens have also seen slight increases, while Ethereum remains relatively sluggish, striving to stay above $1,900. BNB has risen by 4.95% due to a $2 billion investment boost from Abu Dhabi.In the forex and commodities sector, the dollar has seen a slight rebound supported by the slowdown in inflation, ending a previous seven-day decline. Oil demand has strengthened, pushing U.S. oil prices up by over 2.1%. Uncertainty over tariffs and the cooling of inflation have contributed to a rise in gold prices, with spot gold increasing by 0.62% at the close.Although the improvement in inflation opens a window for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, the uncertainty surrounding trade policy raises doubts about the inflation outlook. The market expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at the March 19 decision, with CME FedWatch indicating that traders anticipate possible rate cuts in June and September. Investors are focused on tonight's PPI and initial jobless claims data.

ChainCatcher message, trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted in his personal channel that after the CPI favorable news drove BTC to rebound, he has opened a small BTC short position at the price of $84,200, basically just adjusting his position.

ChainCatcher news, after the CPI data was released, the US dollar index DXY fell more than 30 points in the short term, currently reported at 103.34.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the U.S. February seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month is 0.2%, expected 0.30%, previous value 0.50%.The U.S. February unadjusted CPI year-on-year is 2.8%, expected 2.90%, previous value 3.00%.The U.S. February seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month is 0.2%, expected 0.30%, previous value 0.40%.The U.S. February unadjusted core CPI year-on-year is 3.1%, expected 3.20%, previous value 3.30%.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch": The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in March is 97.0%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 3.0%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged until May is 67.0%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 32.1%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 0.9%.

ChainCatcher news, CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole stated that Bitcoin fell below $80,000 this Tuesday, marking a several-month low, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) — a widely used momentum oscillator — indicates a potential bullish rebound. This indicator has produced a higher low, contradicting the lower lows on the Bitcoin price chart, resulting in what is known as a bullish RSI divergence. This suggests that while prices are declining, the momentum behind the sell-off is weakening, potentially signaling an upcoming reversal to a bullish trend.The analyst added, "The timing of this pattern today couldn't be more interesting, as the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February will be released at 8:30 PM Beijing time, and is expected to show progress. The bullish divergence in BTC's RSI indicates that a phase ready to react positively to potential weak readings is in place."According to CNBC, the expected data shows that the overall CPI for February and the core CPI, excluding food and energy, are projected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month. This implies an annualized increase of 2.9% for the overall CPI and 3.2% for the core CPI, both 0.1 percentage points lower than in January.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Tickmill analyst Joseph Dahrieh stated in a report that the U.S. CPI inflation data could cause U.S. Treasury yields to move in either direction. A higher-than-expected CPI could boost yields and ease recent expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut.Conversely, soft inflation data would lead to a decline in yields. He also mentioned that recent progress towards a potential ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia would help enhance risk appetite. Currently, institutional surveys of analysts indicate that the overall and core inflation rates in the U.S. for February are expected to decline slightly.

ChainCatcher News: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) report tonight at 20:30 (Beijing time). The market expects inflation to ease but remain above the Federal Reserve's target.According to FactSet consensus forecasts, the February CPI is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month, with the year-on-year growth rate decreasing from 3.0% in January to 2.9%. If the forecast is accurate, this will be the first time since early 2023 that it falls below the 3% mark; core CPI is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year.The tariffs and immigration restrictions of the Trump administration have raised new concerns in the market regarding the inflation outlook. Wells Fargo economists stated, "The February CPI report may initially reflect the impact of tariffs, but this is just the beginning." The combination of trade frictions and supply chain complexities may undermine the Federal Reserve's confidence in the trend of declining inflation and delay the market's expectations for interest rate cuts.

ChainCatcher news reports that according to 4E monitoring, on Tuesday, Trump reversed his stance on Canadian tariff policies multiple times, causing the market to experience a "roller coaster" trend. At the beginning of the session, the U.S. stock market initially rose, but then Trump announced a 25% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum, leading the three major indices to turn negative. Shortly after, news emerged that the policy was paused and both sides would renegotiate, but the downward trend in the U.S. stock market remained unchanged. After the lunch break, the market changed again, with Ukraine agreeing to a 30-day ceasefire. Large tech stock bargain hunters surged, pushing the U.S. stock market to refresh its daily high, but the market weakened again towards the end of the session. By the close, all three major indices ended lower, with the Dow down 1.14%, the S&P 500 down 0.76%, and the Nasdaq down 0.18%. Most of the seven tech giants saw an increase.The cryptocurrency market rebounded significantly, with Bitcoin recovering from a low of $76,606 to above $83,000, rebounding over 8% and reclaiming yesterday's sharp decline. Ethereum rose from a low of $1,754 to $1,920, rebounding over 9%. Some altcoins had even larger rebounds. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies slightly recovered to $2.77 trillion, with a 24-hour increase of 2.5%, and market sentiment warmed slightly.In the forex commodities sector, the U.S. dollar index fell over 0.6%, remaining in a downward trend for most of the day. The outlook for global oil inventories improved, leading to a slight increase in international oil prices; the renewed turmoil in U.S. tariff situations and concerns over economic growth supported safe-haven gold, with spot gold rising over 0.9%.The ongoing uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies has continued to impact the market, and the potential effects on consumers and the economy have dampened Wall Street's sentiment. The CPI report at 8:30 PM tonight is highly anticipated, as investors hope to gauge whether the market's concerns about economic stagflation are justified. If the data exceeds expectations, the market may experience another sharp decline.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday, which will be the first inflation report during President Trump's term. If there are signs of cooling inflation, it could increase the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates and boost the confidence of risk asset investors who have been hit hard recently.Market predictions indicate that the overall inflation rate (CPI) will decrease from 3% to 2.9%, while the core inflation rate, excluding volatile items like food and energy, is expected to drop from 3.3% to 3.2%.A slowdown in inflation typically increases the chances of interest rate cuts, thereby enhancing investor interest in risk assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies. Over the past four months, the CPI has accelerated continuously. Recently, the S&P 500 has fallen nearly 10% from its all-time high, while Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped about 30% from its peak, to around $80,000.Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have both emphasized the need to lower the 10-year Treasury yield to facilitate a reduction in the federal funds rate. Currently, this strategy seems to be showing initial results.

ChainCatcher news reports that, according to 4E monitoring, impacted by weak economic data and Trump's tariff policies, U.S. stocks fluctuated lower last week, with all three major indices closing down. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 2.37%; the S&P 500 dropped about 3.1%, marking its worst weekly performance since September last year. The Nasdaq Composite declined by 3.41%, falling for three consecutive weeks and entering a correction zone with a drop of over 10% from recent highs. Large tech stocks performed poorly, with Nvidia's market value shrinking by $1 trillion from its historical peak, and Tesla down over 46% from its all-time high.The cryptocurrency market's downward trend intensified, as the Bitcoin strategic reserve signed by Trump fell short of expectations, and the White House's crypto summit mainly featured polite remarks, failing to surprise the market and exacerbating the declines. Bitcoin consecutively lost several key support levels, dipping to around $80,000, with a nearly 12% drop over the past week, closing at $82,150 at the time of writing. Other major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum experienced even steeper declines, with market sentiment plunging to a low point.In the forex and commodities sector, the U.S. dollar index plummeted by 3.45% last week, marking the largest weekly drop since November 2022, reaching its lowest level since Trump's election victory. The global energy supply and demand outlook is concerning, with U.S. oil falling 3.9% over the week, marking seven consecutive weeks of decline; meanwhile, safe-haven gold rose 1.88% weekly, showing strong performance.Trump's tariff policies have been erratic, and last week's non-farm payroll data failed to provide a clear economic outlook, leading to increasing market fatigue over uncertainty and continued pressure on risk assets. This week, investors are focused on U.S. CPI and PPI inflation data, which will directly impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on March 18-19.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, several important economic data will be released next week, among which the U.S. February CPI data is the most anticipated by the market. On Wednesday, the U.S. February unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate, seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month rate, seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month rate, and unadjusted core CPI year-on-year rate will be announced. These data will directly impact the Federal Reserve's policy decisions at the meeting on March 18-19.In addition, this week there will also be important events such as U.S. President Trump meeting with American tech leaders, including executives from HP, Intel, IBM, and Qualcomm, as well as the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision and a speech by European Central Bank President Lagarde.

ChainCatcher news, according to QCP Asia analysis, the cryptocurrency market experienced significant volatility this week, with BTC rising to 94K before falling back to 83K, currently fluctuating around 88K. The market is influenced by macro factors such as Trump's reserve plan, the escalation of the US-Canada-China trade war, and tariff adjustments, closely following stock market fluctuations.This Friday will see the first White House crypto summit, but lacking specific policy support, market sentiment is cautious, and investors are watching whether it will act as a price catalyst or trigger a larger sell-off.In addition, the high-yield spread of US bonds has widened to 290bps, and the Atlanta Fed's GDP forecast has turned negative to -2.8%. The market is focused on Friday's non-farm payroll data and next week's CPI to assess the macroeconomic outlook.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, the crypto market rebounded after the release of the US CPI data. Presto Research analyst Min Jung stated, "The initial CPI reaction was strong, but as investors took a more cautious approach, realizing that more data is needed to confirm inflation trends, the market rebounded."BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas attributed the market recovery to trading bots responding to the stability of macroeconomic conditions, "Algorithmic trading plays a significant role in these rapid movements, with many bots programmed to react instantly to keywords related to Powell, CPI data, and other major economic reports. Given the recent volatility driven by clearing, any stability in macro conditions could trigger positive buybacks, especially from these automated strategies."Lucas explained that the market seems to be shaking off tariff-related concerns and digesting the latest CPI data, as prices are rising without prominent bullish catalysts. "Risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, have responded positively to the stability of macroeconomic conditions, and if liquidity conditions remain supportive, the market may be preparing for the next leg up."

ChainCatcher news, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell warned on Wednesday not to overinterpret the data showing the largest month-on-month increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in over a year, while also acknowledging that the readings were significantly higher than expected.During a hearing before the House Financial Services Committee, Powell stated, "The CPI readings are almost above all forecasts, but I want to remind you of two points. First, we will not get excited over one or two good readings, nor will we get excited over one or two bad readings. Second, our inflation target focuses on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index because we believe it is a better measure of inflation. Therefore, you need to understand the conversion from CPI to PCE, and tomorrow we will get more relevant data from the Producer Price Index (PPI). Later tomorrow, we will know how the PCE readings look."