Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.2 trillion, with BTC accounting for 59.94%, which is $1.92 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $225.3 billion, with a 7-day increase of 0.62%, of which USDT accounts for 63.19%.
This week, BTC's price has shown range-bound fluctuations, with the current price at $97,725; ETH has also shown range-bound fluctuations, with the current price at $2,728.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have risen while a few have fallen, including: BNX with a 7-day increase of 508%, CAKE with a 7-day increase of 77.65%, AI16Z with a 7-day increase of 54.32%, GRASS with a 7-day increase of 49.89%, and TRUMP with a 7-day increase of 33.55%.
This week, there was a net outflow of $602.4 million from Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S.; a net outflow of $26.3 million from Ethereum spot ETFs in the U.S.
On February 14, the "Fear & Greed Index" was at 50 (higher than last week), indicating a neutral sentiment over the past 7 days.

Market Prediction: This week, the market has escaped the panic caused by "U.S. tariffs," and even though the possibility of a rate cut in March is low, it has not significantly impacted the market. Altcoins have rebounded significantly and are currently in a consolidation phase. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs in the U.S. have seen net outflows, while stablecoins have slightly increased. Strategy has increased its holdings of BTC by $742.4 million at an average price of about $97,255, indicating that long-term holders are still entering the market.
The issuance of the U.S. presidential token TRUMP has created a wealth effect, prompting presidents from countries like Central African Republic and Argentina to follow suit. Currently, there are many opportunities to participate in on-chain MEME projects, but the risks are also high, as many trends are hard to sustain for a day. Hotcoin Research Institute selects popular assets and lists them promptly for user trading options.

Understanding Now

Weekly Major Events Review

1. On February 10, Central African Republic President Faustin-Archange Touadéra announced the launch of the Meme coin CAR and published the contract address via his official X account about an hour ago. It is currently unclear whether his account has been hacked;

2. On February 10, the Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill (Senate Bill 778) was submitted to the Senate Finance Committee for review on February 7;

3. On February 10, on-chain data showed that the Trump crypto project WLFI spent 156,667 USDC to increase its holdings of 273,937 Movement (MOVE);

4. On February 10, Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), posted on social media that Strategy has increased its holdings by 7,633 Bitcoins at an average price of about $97,255, totaling approximately $742.4 million;

5. On February 11, North Carolina proposed a strategic Bitcoin reserve bill aimed at becoming the first state in the U.S. to purchase Bitcoin;

6. On February 12, according to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) official website, Goldman Sachs submitted a 13F filing disclosing its holdings as of December 31, 2024, including over $1.5 billion in multiple Bitcoin spot ETF shares;

7. On February 12, the Trump crypto project WLFI announced the launch of the Macro Strategy plan, which aims to establish a strategic token reserve to support leading projects like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies that are reshaping the forefront of global finance;

8. On February 14, the NFT project Doodles announced the launch of its official token DOOD;

9. On February 14, Coinbase (COIN) announced its Q4 2024 financial report, with Q4 revenue reaching $2.3 billion, far exceeding the market expectation of $1.87 billion, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 88%. Among them, trading revenue was $1.6 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 172%, with quarterly trading volume reaching $439 billion. Annual revenue was $6.6 billion, net profit was $2.6 billion, and adjusted EBITDA reached $3.3 billion.

Macroeconomics

1. On February 8, the SEC postponed the decision on BlackRock's Ethereum ETF options trading until April 9;

2. On February 13, after the CPI data was released, according to CME's "Fed Watch," the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in March is only 2.5%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 97.5%; the probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting rates by 50 basis points by May is 0.2%, and the probability of a cumulative cut of 25 basis points is 11.7%, with a probability of maintaining the current rate at 88.1%;

3. On February 14, U.S. President Trump announced the decision to impose reciprocal tariffs, stating that tariffs for many countries will remain unchanged, and no exemptions or reductions should be expected. He will consider countries that adopt a value-added tax system as targets for tariffs, and practices of transporting goods through other countries to evade tariffs will not be accepted. However, the tariff policy will be delayed and may start on April 1;

4. On February 14, the SEC confirmed receipt of Grayscale's revised application for a spot XRP ETF;

5. On February 14, the SEC confirmed acceptance of Grayscale and the New York Stock Exchange's 19b-4 application to establish a DOGE ETF.

ETF

According to statistics, from February 10 to February 14, there was a net outflow of $602.4 million from Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S.; as of February 14, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $21.967 billion, currently holding $19.472 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $57.087 billion. The total market capitalization of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. is $115.748 billion.
There was a net outflow of $26.3 million from Ethereum spot ETFs in the U.S.

Envisioning the Future

Upcoming Events

1. CoinDesk will hold Consensus Hong Kong from February 18 to 20, 2025, in Hong Kong;

2. ETHDenver 2025 will be held from February 23 to March 2, 2025, in Denver, USA.

Project Progress

1. The points activity for the consumer-grade public chain Morph will last until February 20, 2025, with 10% of its tokens allocated for community airdrops and ecological activity growth, totaling 1.6 million points. The activity will continue until February 20, 2025. Users can earn points through cross-chain asset transfers, paying gas fees, and inviting new users;

2. According to Cointelegraph, Telegram now requires third-party crypto wallets to use TON Connect and has restricted mini-programs to the TON blockchain, making TON the only supported blockchain network by Telegram.

Important Events

1. Coinbase Derivatives has applied to list SOL and HBAR token futures contracts on or after February 18. The standard contract size for SOL is 100 SOL (approximately $24,000), and the mini contract size is 5 SOL; the contract size for HBAR is 5,000 tokens. These contracts will be cash-settled monthly and cleared by Nodal Clear, LLC, a CFTC-registered derivatives clearing organization;

2. FTX will begin initial distributions to allowed claim holders in its Chapter 11 restructuring category on February 18, 2025. Initial distributions are limited to claim holders allowed in the planned convenience category before the completion of the distribution. Eligible creditors should receive their distributions within 1 to 3 business days starting from February 18, 2025.

Token Unlocking

1. ApeCoin (APE) will unlock 15.38 million tokens on February 17, valued at approximately $11.5 million, accounting for 1.54% of the circulating supply;

2. Polyhedra Network (ZKJ) will unlock 15.5 million tokens on February 19, valued at approximately $32.22 million, accounting for 1.55% of the circulating supply;

3. Immutable (IMX) will unlock 24.52 million tokens on February 21, valued at approximately $20.16 million, accounting for 1.23% of the circulating supply.

Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors make investments based on a full understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.