ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, data shows that in 2024, Bitcoin has only a 52% correlation with the Nasdaq index, with a 30-day correlation dropping to 0.46, one of the lowest levels in the past five years.According to Fidelity data, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index is only 19%, performing the best in terms of Sharpe ratio among major asset classes. Since Trump won the U.S. election on November 6, Bitcoin has surged past $93,000 to reach a new high, while the Nasdaq index has fallen 4% from its historical peak.According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility has decreased from 100% in 2021 to about 60% currently. As the world's seventh-largest asset, Bitcoin is gradually decoupling from traditional risk assets, demonstrating independent market performance.

ChainCatcher news, according to K33 Research's research director Vetle Lunde, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has dropped to an 11-month low after the U.S. elections.

ChainCatcher message, Bitfinex published a research report indicating that under the multiple influences of geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic factors, and the intensifying "Trump trade" narrative, BTC volatility has increased, with a significant 6.2% intra-week pullback last week, followed by a rebound. This pullback highlights the growing impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on short-term prices, with an increased correlation between the likelihood of Trump's election and the upward trajectory of Bitcoin.Market anticipation of the election has driven a surge in options trading activity, with options expiring on key dates before and after the election commanding higher premiums. Implied volatility may reach a peak of 100-day volatility shortly after the U.S. election day on November 8, indicating that the market is preparing for potential turmoil, with expectations that short-term volatility will be higher than usual regardless of the election outcome.

ChainCatcher news, according to the latest report from QCP Capital, Trump's interview on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast, released a week before the election, has garnered over 32 million views, raising his odds on Polymarket to over 66%. Although cryptocurrencies are referred to as the "Trump trade," the correlation between Bitcoin and Trump's odds seems to be weakening, as it currently attempts to break through $70,000 and surpass the July high. Bitcoin has only risen 8% this month, below the average of 21%. If the spot price remains at current levels, October will be the fourth worst month for Bitcoin's performance in the past decade.As the market anticipates the election results next week, it remains to be seen whether Bitcoin can break through $70,000. The report advises caution, as the core PCE data expected on Thursday and the non-farm payroll data on Friday are not anticipated to show surprises. Currently, the total open interest in Bitcoin perpetual contracts across exchanges has reached $27 billion, close to this year's peak. If Bitcoin breaks through $70,000, it could trigger new highs, especially with more leveraged long positions involved.

ChainCatcher news, the Growth Lead Intern of Monad posted on platform X that the probability curve of Trump winning on Polymarket is highly positively correlated with the price trend of Bitcoin.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, analysts say that over the past eight years, the price of Bitcoin has shown a positive correlation with the size of the Chinese central bank's balance sheet. The 30-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin's price and the size of the Chinese central bank's balance sheet is 0.66. It has been positive except for 2016 and from the end of 2022 to 2023. On the other hand, Bitcoin's correlation with the Federal Reserve's balance sheet over 30 days is -0.88, the lowest level recorded since 2016.The Chinese central bank is considering launching an economic stimulus plan of up to 1 trillion yuan (approximately 142 billion USD) to boost the economy, which has led to a significant rise in Asian stock markets, particularly the notable increase in the CSI 300 index.Analysts believe that this stimulus plan may indirectly benefit Bitcoin, as it could increase investment in blockchain and cryptocurrency-related projects. This monetary easing policy may drive more capital into the digital asset space.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, FalconX research director David Lawant stated that the correlation between cryptocurrency prices and broader risk asset indices has been rising and may remain high for some time. The current lower interest rate cycle combined with a soft landing is the baseline for most investors and will create a new macro environment for cryptocurrencies. Favorable election outcomes and a liquidity environment more conducive to risk assets may trigger the next cryptocurrency bull market.

ChainCatcher news, according to Bloomberg, correlation studies show that the correlation between digital assets and the U.S. stock market has nearly reached historical highs, indicating that the macroeconomic variables driving the stock market are also affecting the cryptocurrency market.Data compiled by Bloomberg shows that the correlation coefficient between an index measuring the 100 largest digital assets and the S&P 500 index is approximately 0.67 over a 40-day period, a level only surpassed in the second quarter of 2022 when it reached 0.72. A coefficient of 1 indicates that the assets move in perfect unison, while a coefficient of -1 indicates they move in completely opposite directions.This week's focus will be on comments from Federal Reserve officials and the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE). Sean McNulty, trading director at liquidity provider Arbelos Markets, stated, "We believe that the speakers are more important than the PCE inflation data, as the market is currently trying to understand the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) reaction function."

ChainCatcher news, according to data tracked by CryptoQuant, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has recently shifted significantly to negative values. Gold has recently risen to a new record high of over $2,500 per ounce, while Bitcoin is more than 20% lower than its record levels a few months ago.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, Citigroup stated in a research report on Friday that in the context of weak demand, the performance of the cryptocurrency market continues to lag behind other risk assets and is expected to remain highly correlated with the stock market.

ChainCatcher news, GSR CEO Rich Rosenblum stated that Bitcoin will remain highly correlated with U.S. stocks until the election is over, and Bitcoin cannot temporarily become "digital gold."

ChainCatcher news, Matrixport officially stated on social media that people generally believe Bitcoin represents a bet on the future of technology. Historically, Bitcoin has shown a correlation with the Nasdaq index (the benchmark index for U.S. tech companies).In the past two years, Bitcoin has outperformed the Nasdaq index by 73%. Although the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index has sometimes been high, the current correlation is only 9%, indicating that investors can achieve uncorrelated returns. Incorporating high-return, uncorrelated assets into a portfolio is undoubtedly an extremely attractive strategy for investors.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, block data shows that the 30-day Pearson correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index and between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index has dropped to -0.84 and -0.82, respectively, marking a low since November 2023.The relevant data from The Block is consistent with a recent report from Bloomberg, which stated that the 90-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 index fell to 0.21 on Tuesday, a multi-month low.

ChainCatcher news, according to CryptoSlate, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has shown a volatile trend over the past three years, with the 30-day and 90-day correlation indicators displaying intermittent peaks and troughs, indicating varying degrees of correlation between Bitcoin and gold prices.However, over the past 30 days, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has weakened, similar to the trend recently observed between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index.

ChainCatcher message, the correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) and the S&P 500 (SPX) has dropped to 0.05, indicating market divergence. Over the past five years, the two were highly positively correlated during the pandemic and from the end of 2021 to 2022. At the beginning of 2024, both saw significant increases.While the SPX continues to reach new highs, BTC hovers around $60,000. Since 2019, BTC and SPX have shown negative correlation four times, each indicating a local low point in Bitcoin's price.

ChainCatcher news, data from K33 Research shows that bullish offshore traders' current Bitcoin positions are in a loss state over the past two weeks, putting the market at risk of a potential short squeeze.Analysts point out that after the record 19-day net inflow for the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF came to an end, the correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market has reached its highest level in 18 months, with the 30-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq rising to 0.64 for the first time since 2022 last week.