The correlation between the greed index and market trends | Q&A

1. AI-generated junk articles and AI-fabricated images have flooded the internet, especially articles, where I only realize halfway through that it was written by AI, which is quite disgusting.

This phenomenon will definitely become more common as time goes on, and we must face this reality.

However, the more this happens, the more I feel we need to cultivate our creativity and independent thinking abilities—amidst the mass-produced, monotonous information, only conclusions and insights derived from creativity and independent thought become truly precious.

I believe the root of this creativity and independent thinking comes from sincere emotions that arise from the heart. For example, when we genuinely love something, we will exhaust our brains to learn about it, understand it, and even think about it day and night. Driven by such emotions, creativity and independent thinking abilities naturally emerge.

Recently, I read Wan Weigang's book "Turning Point: Standing on the Eve of AI Disrupting the World," and I highly recommend everyone to read it.

One passage that left a deep impression on me (in essence) is:

Now, we have already seen AI. In the foreseeable future, we are likely to see AGI (Artificial General Intelligence). In the not-so-distant future, we may see ASI (Artificial Superintelligence).

These scenes, once dreams, are very likely to become reality within our lifetime.

When AGI and ASI arrive, what advantages do humans have compared to AI?

According to current scientists' estimates:

AGI may still be unable to produce consciousness, so the relative advantage of humans over AGI may be the ability to generate consciousness.

When it comes to ASI, it may already be capable of producing consciousness but still unable to spontaneously generate emotions, so the relative advantage of humans over ASI is the ability to generate emotions.

Therefore, even when ASI arrives, if what we create is imbued with genuine emotions, such as love, understanding, compassion, and empathy… we will still have an irreplaceable position.

2. A slight increase in price leads to a surge in the greed index; what does this indicate? Does it mean the rise is unreasonable and unstable?

I don't really understand this greed index, nor do I know how it is calculated, so I can't judge whether its fluctuations are reasonable.

According to general principles, the values calculated for such indices are relative values. The advantage of relative values is that they can reflect recent changes. However, their weakness is that as the timeline extends, the historical values become less and less meaningful. In fact, historical values, especially complete early historical values, are also very valuable for reference.

I generally prefer to look at complete historical data, mainly to observe the overall price trends, which allows for a slight comparison of its current price position to see if there is a significant bubble or if it is somewhat undervalued.

3. Retail investors can no longer rely on airdrops

I expressed a similar viewpoint in an earlier article (around last year): the era of retail investors getting rich overnight through airdrops is over.

Now, running a studio and relying on airdrops as a business is a very high-risk endeavor.

You can check Twitter; hardly anyone is discussing airdrops anymore, although there are still projects occasionally conducting airdrops.

Recently, Scroll's token airdrop was criticized by the community for being very unfair.

I estimate that upcoming projects with airdrops may not have good outcomes, likely facing backlash from both sides:

If too many tokens are airdropped, it will crash the token price, and the project team will not be pleased. Even if retail investors hold a large number of tokens, they won't sell for a good price.

If too few tokens are airdropped, given the current market conditions, the token price may not stabilize, and retail investors won't receive many tokens, which also won't be worth much.

So now I basically don't pay attention to whether a project has an airdrop; I only participate if I'm interested.

This Saturday, November 9, at 8 PM, we will hold an online discussion in the Twitter space.

If you have questions, you can reply to this post: https://x.com/DaosViews/status/1852148588790583613