Binance Research Institute: The impact of tariffs is dominated by risk aversion in the short term, while the long-term narrative needs to be reshaped

ChainCatcher news, Binance Research has released the latest report. Since Trump's return to the White House and the significant increase in import tariffs, the cryptocurrency market has experienced intense fluctuations. BTC has fallen over 19% from its peak at the beginning of the year, and ETH has dropped over 40%. The total market capitalization has shrunk by nearly $1 trillion, with safe-haven funds flowing into gold and bonds.

The research points out that ongoing trade frictions and stagflation risks have put the Federal Reserve in a policy dilemma, and the market has begun to anticipate multiple interest rate cuts within the year. Bitcoin has shown an increased correlation with the stock market in the short term and a negative correlation with gold, highlighting its risk asset attributes. However, in the long term, if inflation remains high while interest rates decline, Bitcoin may once again become an investment choice for hedging against inflation. In the short term, the cryptocurrency market may maintain a state of volatility and high sensitivity, while the long-term outlook will depend on the evolution of the global macro environment, the Federal Reserve's policy path, and whether the cryptocurrency industry can regain an independent narrative and asset positioning.