Arbitrage

Matrixport: During this period before the U.S. election, traders may consider using a call option arbitrage strategy to gain profits

ChainCatcher news, Matrixport released a chart stating that as implied volatility remains low, Bitcoin traders need to establish corresponding positions to prepare for a potential bull market that may arise from Trump's victory. Bitcoin options will expire on November 8, 2024, but the market has not shown extreme positioning, indicating that traders are cautious about the election results. However, the strike prices of $65,000 and $70,000 suggest that many traders are anticipating a market rebound.The trading volume in the Bitcoin options market this year has ranged between $42 billion and $71 billion, gradually replacing the underperforming crypto stocks since the Bitcoin halving in April 2024, becoming a more favored leveraged tool among traders. Additionally, although MicroStrategy's current stock price is higher than the value of its held Bitcoin, holding MicroStrategy shares has become an alternative option for gaining direct exposure to Bitcoin.At the beginning of this year, the macroeconomic situation improved, and Bitcoin prices rebounded at one point, but as both market structure and liquidity driving factors weakened, a pullback occurred.Trump's victory could bring positive news for Bitcoin, but if the Federal Reserve adopts a tightening monetary stance to counteract the excessive economic stimulus from Trump's policies, the rise will face resistance. During this pre-election period, traders looking to profit in the short term may consider using call option arbitrage strategies to manage risk and capture upside gains.

Analysis: Hedge fund Millennium may deploy a "basis trading" strategy for Bitcoin arbitrage

ChainCatcher news, according to DL News, hedge fund giant Millennium previously disclosed a valuable $2 billion Bitcoin spot ETF, which includes $844 million in BlackRock's IBIT and $806 million in Fidelity's FBTC shares.Two institutional traders indicated that Millennium may deploy a "basis trading" strategy. Millennium is not betting on a further increase in Bitcoin prices, but may be arbitraging between the spot and futures prices of Bitcoin on the CME.In other words, Millennium is not necessarily investing in the ETF because they like Bitcoin, but rather profiting from market inefficiencies. The aforementioned traders do not work at Millennium but have relevant experience at Wall Street trading firms.It is reported that basis trading is a financial term used to describe the difference between the spot price and the futures price of a specific commodity.Assuming the trading price of Bitcoin is $70,000, but the corresponding futures contract price on the CME is $77,000, then the price difference between the two is 10%. If institutional traders believe that the price of Bitcoin will catch up to the futures contract price, they will buy shares of the Bitcoin spot ETF and sell Bitcoin futures contracts on the CME; if they believe that the futures contract price will drop until it reaches the spot price, they will sell Bitcoin in the spot market and buy Bitcoin futures contracts on the CME. This way, they can take advantage of the 10% price difference between the spot and futures prices. However, if they bet on the first scenario and the second scenario occurs, or vice versa, they may still incur losses.
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