ChainCatcher news, Three Arrows Capital founder ZhuSu posted on social media, "The current market cycle has significant differences from 2020-2021: the Bitcoin funds flowing into ETFs and investment tools like MicroStrategy will not rotate into Ethereum, let alone other tokens. Unlike the previous market environment where Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and other coins frequently rotated, other coins currently need substantial catalysts to drive movement.Without major events like Michael Saylor switching to other coins, simply claiming superiority over Bitcoin is no longer enough to attract Bitcoin holders to shift their investments. Existing holders must have faith in the project, and the underlying protocol must be able to perform its intended function."

ChainCatcher message, VanEck's Head of Digital Asset Research Matthew Sigel posted, "Is it too late to turn bearish now? The adjustment of altcoins after the election has recorded the worst performance ever."

ChainCatcher news, 10x Research's market analysis indicates that since Trump's election in November last year, the U.S. stock market has erased all gains, despite initial expectations that the election would drive stronger growth and lower taxes. The anticipation of a rebound in the cryptocurrency market after the election quickly faded on December 6 last year, after which trading volume significantly declined, and funding rates peaked on that date, indicating its importance.Macroeconomic factors are the main drivers of the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency market cycles. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September due to a weak labor market and recession expectations, but subsequent data showed a different trend.Although non-farm employment increased by only 12,000 in October, it rebounded to 227,000 in November, and the data released on January 10 again showed strong growth, with 256,000 new jobs added and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. This data suggests that the Federal Reserve's rationale for cutting rates is flawed, undermining the basis for the rate-cutting cycle.

ChainCatcher news, Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal predicts that the crypto market is entering the "Banana Singularity" phase. He divides the current market into three stages: the breakout in November 2024, the current consolidation period, and the upcoming altcoin season.Pal stated that as Bitcoin's dominance (currently at 58%) declines, the market will experience a comprehensive bullish trend, with core winners creating higher peaks. He also noted that the current market trend is similar to the 2016/2017 cycle, and the consolidation period is expected to end soon.

ChainCatcher news, according to a post by the cryptocurrency market research firm Santiment on the X platform, the average trading return reflects well whether "buying the dip" or "selling at a high" has captured the right timing. Currently, active wallets over the past 30 days are overall in a loss state for BTC, ETH, ADA, DOGE, and the vast majority of altcoins.When the MVRV index is negative, it means you are buying or increasing your holdings while others are already at a loss. Historically, these "market panic" moments are precisely when professional traders profit.Trading should be done with caution; do not assume that these opportunity zone signals will immediately lead to a turnaround. However, probabilities indicate that in the near future, cryptocurrencies will at least experience a short to medium-term reversal, provided that economic and geopolitical factors do not pose obstacles.

ChainCatcher news, according to Coinmarketcap data, the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization are generally showing a downward trend. Among them:Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) has the largest decline, down 14.35%, currently priced at $0.037;DYDX (Native) is down 13.63%, currently priced at $1.42;Gala (GALA) is down 12.79%, currently priced at $0.037;Ethena (ENA) is down 12.67%, currently priced at $1.03;Bonk (BONK) is down 12.4%, currently priced at $0.00003064

ChainCatcher news, according to cryptocurrency analyst Miles Deutscher's analysis on social media, the altcoin season will not be like it was in 2021 because:The loose conditions of 2021 were an extreme anomalyThe surge in the number of new launch projects and the dilution of altcoinsThis does not mean it won't thrive like before (and may even thrive more), just that the approach will be different:It will no longer be that all altcoins rise simultaneously, but rather there will be larger yet more limited rotations (e.g., AI and Meme coins)Liquidity will gradually flow in, rather than spiking sharply as it did during the 2021 stimulus periodStrong ETF liquidity has reduced the impact of Bitcoin (BTC) price increases on liquidity flow (now more of a psychological effect rather than a real one)The market will shift more towards a trader's market, as the strategy of "holding many coins waiting for a rise" will no longer be as effective as beforeThere are still huge opportunities in this field, but trading/investment styles need to be adjusted according to current market conditions.

ChainCatcher news, CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan stated in an article on January 6 that the bull market that began in January 2023 is likely to reach a cyclical peak in the first quarter of 2025 or at the latest in the second quarter. The article stated: "With a large influx of new investments and additional funds from existing investors, we can reasonably expect that the market is currently in the later stages of this cycle."The post stated: "Therefore, the expectation of a significant rise in Bitcoin and altcoins is still worth looking forward to. Nevertheless, from a conservative perspective and considering risk management, it is advisable to proceed with caution."

ChainCatcher news, Binance founder Zhao Changpeng forwarded Errands Gotham's view, stating that Q1 2025 will be the most promising period for altcoins in the past 36 months, with a pattern similar to 2021 and 2017. Errands Gotham predicts that the BNB chain will perform like Ethereum in 2021 in Q1 2025, with a minimum target price of $1314 and an optimal target price of $1986.

ChainCatcher news, Binance founder Zhao Changpeng forwarded Errands Gotham's view, stating that Q1 2025 will be the most promising period for altcoins in the past 36 months, with a pattern similar to 2021 and 2017.Errands Gotham predicts that the BNB chain will perform like Ethereum in 2021 in Q1 2025, with a minimum target price of $1314 and an optimal target price of $1986.

ChainCatcher message, the cryptocurrency market research agency Santiment posted on the X platform that in the last few days of 2024, trading volume in the cryptocurrency sector has significantly decreased. Overall, compared to the previous week (which included Bitcoin's all-time high), trading volume has dropped by 64% in the past week.The decline in trading, especially in speculative altcoins, is not surprising. With the holidays approaching and traders organizing their year-end finances, the last week of December is typically one of the least active periods of the year.In summary, if whales continue to show a strong accumulation trend, the lack of retail participation may actually lead to at least one unexpected surge in 2024, while retail investors remain largely unaware.

ChainCatcher news, according to Santiment data, BTC and altcoins have recovered well before Christmas, with the Bitcoin price rebounding to $99,000. The current distribution of Bitcoin wallet addresses is as follows:Holding 0-0.1 BTC: 50.17 million;Holding 0.1-10 BTC: 4.31 million;Holding 10-1,000 BTC: 150.13 thousand;Holding over 1,000 BTC: 2,050;Analysis indicates that as long as the number of large holders and whale wallets (the last two groups) continues to grow and maintains the accumulation trend since 2024, there is a high probability that the bull market will continue.

ChainCatcher news, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju pointed out that Bitcoin's market share previously experienced a 6% drop (with XRP contributing 3%), but it has started to recover. Currently, only a few altcoins are attracting new liquidity, and the scale of funds rotating from Bitcoin to altcoins is limited. Ki Young Ju believes that this is not a traditional altcoin season, but rather an independent market for a few outstanding tokens.

ChainCatcher news, crypto analyst Ali posted on the X platform that after the last three FOMC meetings, Bitcoin's dominance has declined, while altcoins have rebounded. It is reported that the Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate decision and economic projections summary at 3 AM, followed by a monetary policy press conference by Fed Chairman Powell at 3:30 AM.