ChainCatcher news, according to Sina Finance, the US stock market will be closed on January 9 (Thursday) in observance of a national day of mourning for the late 39th President of the United States, Jimmy Carter. Normal trading will resume on January 10 (Friday).Trading in stock index futures under the CME will end early at 22:30 Beijing time; trading in interest rate and agricultural futures will end early at 02:15 Beijing time on January 10; trading in Treasury futures will end early at 03:30 Beijing time on January 10; trading in precious metals, energy, foreign exchange, and cryptocurrency futures will proceed as usual.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the Chief Economist of ANZ Greater China, Yang Yuting, mentioned at the 2025 China Chief Economist Forum Annual Meeting that the current U.S. public debt has reached 36 trillion, exceeding the 31.4 trillion cap. "In the past two years, the debt has increased by 2 trillion each year. Unless Musk can really help him reduce the U.S. deficit and decrease U.S. debt, I think there is a high possibility that the U.S. federal government will face a shutdown, which will also bring a certain degree of impact on the U.S. economy."

ChainCatcher message, regarding the Bitcoin strategic reserve plan proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis, VanEck's Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel commented on the X platform, "We did some math on this topic in this month's ChainCheck. Assuming the U.S. Treasury starts purchasing 1 million Bitcoins at a starting price of $200,000 over the next 5 years. Assuming U.S. debt grows at a rate of 5% (compared to an 8% annual compound growth rate over the past 10 years) and Bitcoin prices compound at a rate of 25%. In this scenario, by 2050, the U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve would hold assets equivalent to 36% of the debt."

ChainCatcher news, after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the bond market seems to be pricing in a hawkish tone from Chairman Powell's speech. U.S. Treasury yields are rising, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching levels not seen since the summer. Federal Reserve officials expect next year's inflation rate to remain above the 2% target.In response, a reporter asked Powell what would lead the Federal Reserve to cut rates in 2025, given this forecast. Powell replied that substantial progress has been made in cooling prices, but further progress is still needed. Additionally, the Federal Reserve wants to ensure that the labor market remains stable. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, U.S. Treasury yields rose before the Federal Reserve's decision announcement. However, the economic data released that day showed that U.S. new housing starts declined both month-over-month and year-over-year, which led to a slight decrease in Treasury yields.The current market expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points and suggests a pause in rate hikes in January, increasing the hawkish tone. Affected by this expectation, the settlement price of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield may reach its highest level in over a month.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, data from the U.S. Department of Labor shows that the number of initial jobless claims increased last week. The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending November 30 was recorded at 224,000, compared to 215,000 the previous week. Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal had previously expected the number of initial jobless claims for the most recent week to be 215,000. Meanwhile, the number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits fell to 1.87 million, down from 1.90 million the previous week. The data indicates that while initial jobless claims have risen, they remain relatively stable. The November employment report will be released on Friday. Analysts expect that after the October employment data was affected by hurricanes and the Boeing strike, the November employment report will show a significant recovery in employment.After the U.S. initial jobless claims data suggested a potential softening in the labor market, U.S. Treasury yields lost some momentum, and the dollar weakened, which strengthened the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut. Last week's initial jobless claims were 224,000, higher than the expected 215,000. The non-farm payroll numbers for November, expected to be released tomorrow, are projected to jump from 120,000 in October to 214,000. The trade deficit for October narrowed to $73.8 billion, in line with expectations. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at 4.208%, while the 2-year yield was at 4.161%, both higher than yesterday.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, Standard Chartered's Global Head of Digital Assets Research, Geoff Kendrick, stated that the recent BTC pullback is mainly influenced by changes in the U.S. Treasury market. He explained that the decline in the term premium of U.S. Treasuries has boosted market confidence, which may temporarily weaken Bitcoin's appeal as a hedge.Nevertheless, Kendrick maintains his prediction that Bitcoin will reach $125,000 by the end of the year and expects it to hit $200,000 by the end of 2025. Notably, the upcoming options expiration this Friday is also putting short-term pressure on Bitcoin prices. Data shows that since the U.S. elections, spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated approximately 77,000 Bitcoins, while MicroStrategy has increased its holdings by 134,000 Bitcoins, with an average institutional purchase price of $88,700. Kendrick anticipates that this price level may serve as a short-term support, with Bitcoin consolidating in the range of $85,000 to $88,700 before continuing to rise.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, stated that to maintain the strength of the dollar, the Federal Reserve may need to stop cutting interest rates.Yardeni pointed out that the U.S. economy is performing robustly, and his company, Yardeni Research, has always held a positive view on the dollar. A few months ago, due to market expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the dollar weakened, which Yardeni believes would be a mistake. He added that the performance of the U.S. Treasury market and the dollar supports this view. He believes that by stopping or reducing interest rate cuts, the Federal Reserve will help maintain the strength of the dollar.

ChainCatcher news, the Bank of Montreal believes that any significant impact of the recent storm on inflation data is likely to be limited, which means that the market's reaction to any deviation in core inflation could be pronounced. The market generally predicts that this month's core CPI month-on-month rate will steadily rise by 0.3%, with a tendency for a possible unexpected upside. A reading of 0.4% or higher would cause a stir, especially in the context of the recent election of Trump.Logically, if inflation has already begun to rise before the Republican victory, the effects of tariffs and potential trade conflicts could further exacerbate inflationary momentum.However, although targeted tariffs may not push prices higher, this assumption is currently influencing the sentiment in the U.S. interest rate market. Given this market outlook, the bank expects that an unexpected rise in October's inflation data could have a significant impact on U.S. Treasury yields, with inflation data being the most direct factor that could push the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield above the 4.50% threshold.

ChainCatcher News, U.S. Republican presidential candidate Trump announced victory in the 2024 presidential election. According to 4E monitoring, U.S. stock index futures continue to rise, with gains approaching 2%.As of the time of publication, the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index futures rose by 1.86% and 1.7%, respectively, while Dow futures soared by 875 points, up 2.05%. The Russell 2000 index futures even surged over 4.78%.In addition, the benchmark yield on U.S. Treasuries has risen to 4.41% for the 10-year Treasury note. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the dollar's performance against six major trade-weighted currencies, skyrocketed by 1.53%, reaching as high as 105.19, a four-month high.

ChainCatcher news, according to 4E monitoring, on Wednesday, the three major U.S. stock indices fell, influenced by weak stock prices of Apple and Nvidia. Investors sold off technology stocks, chip stocks, and AI concept stocks, dragging the Nasdaq down by 1.60%, leading the decline, while the Dow and S&P both fell about 1% and have declined for three consecutive days. The cryptocurrency market followed the general downturn of U.S. stocks, with Bitcoin briefly approaching $65,000. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is at $67,300, up 0.36%, while Ethereum is at $2,550, down 2.43%.In the foreign exchange and commodity markets, as the election approaches, investors are weighing the possibility of a significant victory for Trump, which is considered the most favorable outcome for the dollar. The dollar index rose over 0.3% to near a three-month high, with the yen, euro, and pound all declining. Spot gold approached $2,760 during the session, setting a historical high for five consecutive days. Subsequently, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rose together, putting pressure on precious metals, turning gains into losses. Spot gold fell 1.2% at the close, while spot silver briefly dropped 4%, departing from its twelve-year high. Last week, the EIA crude oil inventory increase exceeded expectations, putting pressure on oil prices, with U.S. oil falling over 1.3%, ending a two-day rise.The Federal Reserve's Beige Book released on Wednesday showed little change in U.S. economic activity, with an increase in hiring by businesses and continued easing of inflationary pressures. With a series of strong economic data released recently, expectations for Fed rate cuts have weakened, coupled with "Trumpflation" prompting the market to reconsider rate cut expectations, especially for next year, leading to a sustained rise in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, which pressured risk assets. The stock market, commodities, cryptocurrencies, and non-U.S. currencies were generally under pressure. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, commodity gold, and foreign exchange. It recently launched a USDT stablecoin financial product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing investors with a potential hedging option. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets reasonably.

ChainCatcher news, Glen Capelo, Managing Director of Fixed Income at Mischler Financial Group, stated that a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is likely to lead to a sell-off of U.S. Treasuries, although this largely depends on Powell's press conference. Michael Rosen, Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer at Angeles Investments, believes that the current bond market is pricing in the Fed's rate cut pace too aggressively. The market expects the Fed to cut rates by 250 basis points next year, a magnitude that is only possible in the case of an economic recession. Therefore, he believes that the decline in short-term U.S. Treasury yields will be lower than market expectations, while long-term yields may even start to rise from now. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, UBS strategist Emmanouil Karimalis pointed out in a report that the recent trends in U.S. Treasury bonds and the yield curve seem more pronounced than the average and median of comparable historical periods, ahead of the Federal Reserve's expected rate cut on September 18."The bond market typically rebounds at the time of a Fed rate cut, but compared to past cycles, the recent rebound has been larger; the increase in the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond over the past month is the largest in recent history," he stated, adding that the current market pricing seems to be more excessive compared to the last three Fed rate cut cycles.According to Tradeweb data, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is currently 3.717%, having decreased by 23 basis points over the past month. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, bond traders are taking on record risks as they make large bets in the U.S. Treasury market in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's imminent first rate cut.Ahead of the Jackson Hole central bank symposium starting on Thursday, the number of leveraged positions in U.S. Treasury futures has risen to an all-time high. Data from the CME and institutional analysis show that last week, open interest rose to the equivalent of nearly 23 million 10-year Treasury futures contracts, setting a record, which corresponds to a risk of about $1.5 billion for each basis point movement. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, Mark Dowding, Chief Investment Officer of BlueBay, an asset management company under the Royal Bank of Canada, stated that the recent rise in U.S. Treasury bonds seems a bit excessive, and the market may have already priced in the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. Given the expectation of an 80 basis point cut in interest rates over the remainder of 2024, we believe this is an overshooting range, with fair pricing suggesting one to two rate cuts. In light of this view, we tend to take a contrarian approach to the recent trend in U.S. Treasury yields. (Jin Shi)