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Analyst: Bitcoin may be entering the end of a bear market, expected to rise to $250,000 in the next two to three years

Real Vision's Chief Crypto Analyst Jamie Coutts stated that Bitcoin may be entering the later stages of this bear market. Although the bear market has not ended, the downward momentum has begun to weaken. The current BTC price has fallen about 50% from the historical high of $126,100 set in October 2025. Coutts referred to the current trend as a "typical bear market" and pointed out that Bitcoin's volatility has decreased by about 50% compared to the previous cycle, which suggests that this decline may not be as severe as the previous bear market. However, he cautioned that all current trend indicators are still clearly bearish, and the market will not mechanically replicate historical cycles.He noted that longer-term momentum indicators are beginning to show bullish divergence, indicating that negative momentum is slowing down, but this does not mean that Bitcoin has technically exited the bear market. In addition to the tightening of global liquidity, the deterioration of on-chain demand has also been a significant reason for Bitcoin's decline. Regarding long-term price predictions, Coutts is cautious about Bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2030. He prefers to predict that BTC will rise to between $200,000 and $250,000 in the next two to three years. He also warned that the Bitcoin community needs to more clearly address the potential threat of quantum computing before 2027, as significant protocol upgrades may take about five years.

Next week's macro outlook: Waller's congressional hearing coincides with CPI, and the market anticipates more clues on interest rate prospects

According to Jinshi reports, the tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated sharply this week, with mutual attacks leading to the collapse of a fragile ceasefire agreement that had lasted for about three weeks. The inflationary pressure driven by rising oil prices has reignited expectations for the Federal Reserve to tighten its policies. During the same period, U.S. stocks largely ignored geopolitical uncertainties, with the "AI trading" frenzy regaining momentum, as the S&P 500 index approached an all-time high, and both it and the Nasdaq recorded a consecutive weekly gain. SK Hynix's ADR surged 13% on its first day, with a fundraising amount of $26.5 billion, making it the highest fundraising foreign company IPO in U.S. stock market history.In the coming week, the U.S.-Iran situation, U.S. CPI and other economic data, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials will capture Wall Street's attention. There is particular anticipation for whether Federal Reserve Chairman Waller can provide more clues about the interest rate outlook under questioning in Congress, although his determination to cancel forward guidance leaves little room for optimism. The macro data events for next week are as follows:MondayFederal Reserve Governor Waller speaksTuesdayU.S. ADP employment change for the week ending June 27U.S. June CPI and core CPIFederal Reserve Chairman Waller attends the House Financial Services Committee "Federal Reserve Semiannual Monetary Policy Report" hearingWednesday2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participates in a fireside chatU.S. June PPI and core PPIFOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams speaksFederal Reserve Chairman Waller attends the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee "Federal Reserve Semiannual Monetary Policy Report" hearingFederal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditionsThursdayU.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, U.S. June retail sales month-on-month, U.S. July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan speaksFederal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson speaks on the economy and monetary policy
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