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Analyst: Foldable iPhone may repeat the iPhone X scenario, launching later with tight supply until the end of the year

Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo from Tianfeng International Securities stated that the foldable iPhone may repeat the iPhone X scenario, being launched alongside other models but with pre-order and official sale dates delayed, and supply constraints potentially lasting until the end of 2026.From the inventory levels in the third quarter of 2026, the foldable iPhone is likely to be similar to the iPhone X in 2017, which was announced alongside the iPhone 8 / 8 Plus on September 12, but due to insufficient inventory, its pre-order and official sale dates were postponed to October 27 and November 3, respectively. Given the limited shipment of the foldable iPhone in the third quarter, pre-orders and official sales may not open until the fourth quarter of 2026.Kuo mentioned that after communicating with telecom operators, sales channels, and resale/purchasing agents, he believes that even if the foldable iPhone is priced around $2300 to $2500, demand could remain strong at least until the end of 2026. This means that once pre-orders for the foldable iPhone open, it may sell out quickly, and the waiting time for shipments could extend to 4 to 6 weeks or even longer, continuing into December.He believes that the initial scarcity of the foldable iPhone, its high recognizability, and its innovative user experience could drive up short-term resale prices, making it possible for resale prices to exceed the official price by 50% to 100%.

Citigroup: The reasons for interest rate hikes have disappeared, expecting the Federal Reserve to resume rate cuts in October

Citigroup Research stated in the U.S. Economic Weekly published on July 2 that the U.S. non-farm payroll data for June showed a significant weakening, strongly refuting the necessity for interest rate hikes. Citigroup believes that several factors that previously supported a hawkish stance, including rising oil prices, accelerated wage growth, and core PCE above target, have gradually faded, stating that "the reasons for rate hikes have disappeared."Data shows that in June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 57,000 jobs, far below expectations, and the data for the previous two months was revised down by a total of 74,000 jobs. After revision, the average monthly growth of non-farm payrolls over the past three months has dropped to about 111,000, a significant decline from over 180,000 before the revision. The unemployment rate in June fell from 4.296% to 4.189%, but Citigroup believes this is mainly due to the labor participation rate dropping from 61.8% to 61.5%. If the participation rate remains unchanged, the unemployment rate would actually rise to above 4.5%.Regarding inflation, Citigroup stated that multiple factors are collectively suppressing price pressures. Oil prices have fallen back to pre-conflict levels, and July CPI and PCE data are expected to show a month-on-month decline; further slowing of housing rents will also drag down core CPI and core PCE. In addition, the revision of the core PCE methodology will adopt a more reasonable price adjustment approach for AI-related goods. Citigroup estimates that the year-on-year growth rate of the revised core PCE may be adjusted down by 20 to 30 basis points, which will be officially reflected in September.Citigroup maintains its baseline forecast, expecting the Federal Reserve to remain on hold at the FOMC meetings in July and September, with the first rate cut of 25 basis points occurring at the meeting on October 28, followed by another 25 basis points cut in December, bringing the federal funds rate range down to 3.0% to 3.25% by the end of the year. Citigroup also expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates three more times in 2027, with a terminal rate range of 2.75% to 3.0%.

Myanmar's electric fraud AI industrialization exposed: Starlink becomes a key infrastructure, with encrypted payments and OpenAI/Google models included in the toolchain

According to a report from Hongxing News, an investigation report leaked from a scam park in Myanmar shows that global telecom fraud is accelerating towards an "AI industrialization + cross-border encrypted payment" system. The scam network completes fund circulation through cryptocurrency and uses automated tools based on large models for multi-language script generation, identity disguise, and emotional manipulation.According to the investigation analysis, these systems extensively utilize OpenAI's ChatGPT and Google's Gemini at the functional level to support "scaled social fraud." The funding side achieves rapid laundering and transfer through on-chain payments and cross-border channels, forming a dual structure of "AI customer acquisition + encrypted settlement," which gives the fraud industry a high degree of automation and transnational diffusion capability. In addition, Starlink, owned by Musk, has become the number one network service provider for the scam park in Myanmar, with American ISP providers carrying nearly one-fifth of the park's traffic.In response to the related accusations, OpenAI stated that the behavior of scammers using ChatGPT is highly similar to that of ordinary users, making identification difficult. However, they have banned about 100,000 suspicious accounts monthly through behavioral pattern recognition and risk control systems. Google stated that its AI models have safety barriers in place and emphasized its commitment to "responsible AI development" to limit the tools' use for fraud and other illegal purposes.

Data: The Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been negative for 48 consecutive days, setting a new record for the longest "negative streak," with the latest report at -0.0911%

According to Coinglass data, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been in a negative premium range for 48 consecutive days (from May 19 to present), with the latest value at -0.0911%. This index measures the deviation of the BTC price on Coinbase (a mainstream compliant platform in the U.S.) relative to the global average price. The sustained negative value indicates heavy selling pressure in the U.S. market, a decline in risk appetite, capital outflows, or rising risk aversion.Historical data shows that long-term negative premiums are often accompanied by the exit of institutional funds from the U.S., and caution is needed regarding short-term pullback pressure. The Coinbase premium index is primarily used to assess the demand for Bitcoin among professionals and institutions. By comparing the BTC prices on Coinbase Advanced and Binance, one can directly understand the purchasing behavior of these users. Negative data indicates that the amount sold by institutional investors exceeds that of retail investors, while retail investors are mostly active on the Binance platform, and their behavior has led to the decline in the Coinbase premium index. Previously, this index was in a negative premium for 40 consecutive days from January 16 to February 24 this year, setting the longest "continuous negative" record since the launch of this indicator, surpassing the approximately 30 days of continuous negative premium during the "1011 crash."

Michael Saylor: The biggest evolution of BTC in the next decade is the stability of the protocol layer, while expanding in the capital markets and application layer

Michael Saylor stated that the biggest evolution of Bitcoin in the next decade will come from fewer changes at the protocol layer and a greater role in other areas. He believes that the foundational layer of Bitcoin will become more solid, capital markets will continue to deepen, applications will expand, institutions will enter, and the world will build on Bitcoin. Bitcoin is not a tech stock, a payment company, or a software platform competing to add features, but a monetary network whose purpose is not to act quickly and disrupt things, but to move slowly and remain unbroken.Saylor indicated that Bitcoin has won the first important battle, and the world is increasingly understanding that Bitcoin is digital capital, possessing attributes such as scarcity, durability, portability, divisibility, programmability, and global transferability. The strongest version of Bitcoin is not to "replace all payment rails," but to become a neutral, global, scarce asset around which capital, credit, and commerce are organized. The foundational layer is not optimized for coffee payments, but designed for final settlement, reserve assets, collateral settlement, and ultimate ownership transfer.He believes that the four-year cycle of Bitcoin is still important, but no longer the dominant model. In the next decade, Bitcoin's price movements will be driven less by miner issuance and more by capital flows from ETFs, corporate treasuries, sovereign reserves, bank credit, derivatives, insurance, collateral, and global savings. Halving will tighten supply, while capital flows will determine the growth trajectory. Digital credit will accelerate Bitcoin adoption, connecting Bitcoin capital with the broader financial system.Saylor stated that the main question in the next decade is not whether Bitcoin can survive, but whether economic exposure is still connected to real Bitcoin or if too much "paper Bitcoin" is being formed. Custodial transparency, proof of reserves, risk management, capital structure, and counterparty risk will all become important.He expects that by 2036, Bitcoin will be more widely held, more deeply institutionalized, more politically significant, and become an important collateral asset in the digital credit market; while the foundational protocol itself may change less than everything built around it.
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