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first_img Zhu Xiaohu: The model API business is difficult to maintain high gross margins in the long term

Zhu Xiaohu, founding partner of Jinsha River Ventures, stated: The model API business is difficult to maintain high gross margins in the long term. Anthropic currently has a gross margin of about 60%, primarily due to the strong intelligence capabilities of the model, especially in coding scenarios where it had a significant advantage, but that advantage has begun to cross a critical point; when other models catch up, the price may only be one-tenth of its current level, making it hard to maintain a high premium. Even if it remains ahead in the next few years, if the intelligence is only 10% stronger but the price is 50% higher, users may not continue to pay. Intelligence will ultimately become more like electricity and water, and the long-term gross margin for model APIs may be between 10% and 20%. Once capabilities converge, price wars will be hard to avoid, and Anthropic's urgency to go public may also be related to the window period.Zhu Xiaohu mentioned that the AI office market is definitely much larger than AI coding. AI coding was the first to emerge because engineers have a high acceptance of AI, tasks are clear, and results are easy to verify, but it is only part of office work; the truly larger market is the white-collar market, namely AI office, which is essentially a general-purpose agent, similar to Microsoft Office. The competitiveness of AI office products lies in Model + Harness + Product + Context, and once harnesses converge, competition will shift to Context.Regarding Tencent AI, Zhu Xiaohu stated that Tencent is a latecomer, and the Hunyuan model has squeezed into the top tier domestically, with WorkBuddy becoming the leading office agent application in the domestic top tier. Jinsha River Ventures has purchased a WorkBuddy enterprise account because it uses WeChat for Work, and the organizational relationships, historical communications, as well as Tencent Meeting and Tencent Docs constitute a ready-made Context.

first_img Analyst: PCB prices are expected to rise again in the third quarter, optimistic about Taiguang Electric and Nandian's future market

According to the Economic Daily, in the past six months, CCL manufacturers have raised product prices by about 20% to 30% due to the overall increase in upstream material prices. Most PCB manufacturers have not been able to pass on these costs quickly enough, resulting in a time lag of 2 to 3 months, which has eroded profit margins. Institutional investors indicate that starting from the third quarter of this year, some PCB manufacturers will increase prices, and the benefits are expected to drive a rebound in the profitability of related manufacturers.Analysts state that in terms of substrates, electronic fiberglass cloth led by T glass and copper foil drilling needles are still in short supply, with T glass experiencing the most severe shortage, with some manufacturers facing a gap of up to 20%. This gap is expected to continue into next year. It is anticipated that in the second half of this year, substrate manufacturers will enter a supply-demand imbalance driven by the high demand for AI GPUs and ASIC high-performance computing, as well as the continued tightness of key raw materials. Substrate manufacturers will continue to adopt rolling price adjustments, with prices still having double-digit upward potential.Additionally, due to the sustained high demand related to AI and the specification upgrades driven by new generation products, there is continued optimism that CCL manufacturers will benefit from both price and volume increases. With raw material prices remaining tight and the delivery times for high-end CCL continuing to extend, the trend of price increases remains unchanged. There is continued optimism for the future development of Taiwanese CCL manufacturers such as Taiflex and Taisil. Meanwhile, as the substrate gap gradually widens, it benefits the bargaining power of substrate manufacturers, and the trend of price increases will continue, maintaining a positive outlook on the future performance of Taiwanese substrate manufacturers, including Nanya Technology and other supply chain partners.
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