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TRX $0.3172 -0.02%
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ZEC $1,025.51 -10.60%
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GOOGL $291.86 +0.47%
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NVDA $173.10 -3.73%
TSLA $385.27 +1.90%
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INTC $59.98 +2.37%
SPCX $145.22 +2.30%
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Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud: The leverage liquidation in the cryptocurrency market has been relatively sufficient, and the short-term space for further decline is limited

In October, the U.S. CPI exceeded expectations. After the data was released, BTC briefly fell to around $73,000, and the market began to bet on a 50 basis point rate hike in December. In response, Cloud, the chief analyst at Huobi HTX, believes that the probability of a 50 basis point hike is low, and a 25 basis point increase remains the baseline scenario. The current decline is more akin to a pricing correction.There are three reasons: The Federal Reserve values the continuity of data, and historically, there are very few cases where a single month's CPI jump has changed the pace of rate hikes; a single month of exceeding expectations is insufficient to overturn the gradual path; the current inflation stickiness mainly stems from the lagged transmission of tariffs and rents, which will naturally diminish, and marginal employment is also weakening. The committee has no reason to impose aggressive tightening at the peak of transmission; the credit spread has widened from 93 basis points to 348 basis points, financial conditions have effectively tightened, and adding another 50 basis points would actively create financial stability risks.In the crypto market, funding rates have turned negative, and the open interest in perpetual contracts has decreased by nearly 20% in a week. The fear and greed index has fallen into the deep fear zone, and the clearing of leverage has been relatively sufficient, limiting the space for further short-term declines. However, an oversold situation does not mean an immediate rebound; confirmation is needed for CPI to fall in the next two months. If inflation exceeds expectations for two consecutive months and a 50 basis point hike is realized, a trend decline will begin, but currently, this scenario seems unlikely.Note: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation of investment products.

FTX missed the $100 billion IPO of Anthropic

Anthropic has publicly submitted and updated its prospectus (S-1/A) to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, planning to go public on Nasdaq under the stock ticker ANT, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley serving as lead underwriters. The latest amendment submitted on November 10 reveals an offering price range of $70 to $78 per share, with approximately 825 million shares of Class A common stock being offered, of which the company will issue about 801.35 million shares, existing shareholders will sell about 23.65 million shares, and underwriters will have an additional overallotment option of about 123.75 million shares. The company will also allocate approximately $26 billion of non-voting Class N shares to strategic investors such as Google, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Micron, Microsoft, and TSMC, priced in line with the IPO price.The market expects pricing around November 18, with trading potentially starting on November 19. Based on approximately 1.309 billion shares post-offering, this corresponds to a valuation of about $917 billion to $1.02 trillion; accounting for options, restricted stock, and other fully diluted factors, the high-end valuation could reach about $1.4 trillion. Previously, the market anticipated a fundraising scale of about $100 billion, with a maximum valuation reaching $2 trillion, but the latest terms have narrowed.FTX-affiliated Alameda Research acquired approximately 7.84% of Anthropic for about $500 million between 2021 and 2022, corresponding to about 44.54 million shares of Series B. After FTX filed for bankruptcy protection in November 2022, the bankruptcy estate sold about 29.5 million shares in March 2024 for a total transaction amount of about $884 million, and in June sold another approximately 15 million shares, recovering about $452 million, totaling about $1.34 billion. According to the latest prospectus's fully diluted share count, the original ownership percentage has decreased to about 2.5%, corresponding to a theoretical value of about $3.11 billion to $3.47 billion based on the IPO price range.
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