Bitfinex Alpha: Bitcoin needs to wait for CPI to catalyze a return to $84,500, with short-term attention on the support at $81,300
Bitfinex Alpha's latest report indicates that whether Bitcoin can regain the $84,500 level this week will depend on whether the U.S. CPI data changes market expectations for interest rates and yields, as well as whether spot market buying can follow up.This round of correction is similar to several adjustments during the previous recovery phase, with investors holding costs within the original trading range not showing significant sell-offs. However, spot market buying remains a weak link in the current market, with Bitcoin ETF investors' average holding cost around $84,340, and the current price is below this level, leading some investors to potentially sell when the rebound approaches their cost level.Analysts believe that if this week's core CPI month-over-month increase is 0.2% or lower, it may reduce market rate hike expectations and drive yields down, providing room for BTC to rise; if the core CPI reaches 0.3% or higher, it may continue to suppress the performance of risk assets. BTC may oscillate in the range of $81,300 to $84,500 in the short term. If the price breaks through and stabilizes above $84,500, while ETF fund flows are strong, the market may retest the $87,722 level from the beginning of the year; if it falls below $81,300 with continued fund outflows, it may further dip to around $77,400, which is the true market average level.