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first_img $6.4 billion Bitcoin options expire on Friday, which may exacerbate market volatility

According to CoinDesk, approximately 81,700 Bitcoin options contracts (with a nominal value of about $6.4 billion) on Deribit will expire on Friday at 08:00 UTC. The number of call options exceeds that of put options, with a put/call ratio of 0.83, and the maximum pain point is at $68,000. The $80,000 strike price holds $157 million in nominal value of call options, while the $75,000 strike price has the largest open interest in call options, reaching $236 million.Shaun Fernando, Chief Risk Officer of Deribit, stated that nearly 20% of Deribit's Bitcoin open contracts are about to expire, combined with factors such as severe market volatility, the volatility term structure shifting from backwardation to contango, a relative increase of 30% in DVOL, and a shift from negative to positive skew in call-put options, this will be a "noteworthy expiration date." Bitcoin surged from about $62,000 to $80,000 within a week, marking the second-largest weekly gain in years, with a large number of call options with strike prices below $80,000 entering in-the-money status.Fernando pointed out that over $500 million in nominal value is within a 5% volatility range of the current price, which may trigger more intense gamma hedging before expiration, leading to a "pinning" effect around key strike prices or accelerating a breakout beyond these levels. Dynamic hedging conducted by market makers to manage exposure may cause Bitcoin prices to fluctuate around dominant strike prices like $80,000, and once a decisive breakout occurs at that level, it could trigger a larger market movement.

The "inflation thunder" will be revealed on the eve of Jackson Hole! The core PCE in July may rise to 3.3%, and the expectation of interest rate hikes in September is heating up

At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the U.S. Department of Commerce will release the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. The market expects the overall PCE in July to rise by 0.1% month-on-month, with the year-on-year increase falling from 3.7% in June to 3.6%; the core PCE is expected to rise from 0.1% to 0.2% month-on-month, while year-on-year it remains at 3.3%, marking the 65th consecutive month above the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target.It is noteworthy that rising prices in the AI industry chain, high valuations in the stock market pushing up portfolio management fees, and the situation in the Middle East leading to increased energy costs may all become potential drivers of core inflation. Goldman Sachs predicts that stock market valuation factors alone could contribute approximately 0.11 percentage points to the month-on-month increase in core PCE for July.What draws more market attention is that the Bureau of Economic Analysis plans to comprehensively adjust the PCE statistical methods by the end of September, which may involve adjustments to the price calculations for categories such as computer hardware, stock portfolio management, and legal services, and may also retroactively revise historical data, increasing the difficulty of interpreting inflation data.Currently, the market's views on the Federal Reserve's policy path in September are increasingly divided. CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 59.9%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike has risen to 40.1%. The market is also waiting for this week's Jackson Hole annual meeting to seek the latest signals from Fed Chair Powell regarding inflation and subsequent interest rate policies.
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