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Analyst: The inflow of Bitcoin to exchanges is 50% higher than in February, and SOPR remains below 1

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. released a report indicating that the current Bitcoin market correction is more severe than in February. The 30-day average inflow of Bitcoin to exchanges has risen to 122,000 coins, significantly higher than the annual baseline of 82,000 coins, and about 50% higher than the average of around 80,000 coins during the February sell-off period, approaching the upper range of 131,000 coins. Meanwhile, the price has dropped from $77,000-$78,000 to the current approximately $59,000.At the same time, the 30-day average SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has fallen to 0.99, consistently below the critical level of 1, indicating that the market is, on average, in a state of realized losses. From May to July, this indicator was below 1 for 37 out of 61 days. The combination of these two indicators shows that the volume of sell-offs and realized losses makes the current correction more pronounced than in February. Adler pointed out that this is not a temporary pressure event, but rather a continuous selling process. For the market to stabilize, two signals need to appear simultaneously: SOPR rising above 1 (meaning that those selling coins are no longer losing money), and the inflow to exchanges returning to annual normal levels. The main risk is that if a large amount of coins continues to flow into exchanges, the supply pressure will persist, making it difficult for market sentiment to improve.

The Shanghai procuratorate in China has cracked a cross-border virtual currency exchange case, with the amount involved exceeding 200 million yuan

According to the disclosure from the People's Procuratorate of Jing'an District, Shanghai, recently, the court prosecuted a certain Li for suspected illegal business operations in a criminal gang that used virtual currency for cross-border money laundering and illegal foreign exchange. On June 10, the case was heard in court and a verdict was announced on the spot, marking a conclusion to a series of illegal business operations spanning three years and involving over 200 million yuan. In July 2024, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange discovered abnormal clues regarding Company Z using virtual currency to transfer assets for domestic clients during routine monitoring, and subsequently referred the case to the public security authorities for handling.Investigations revealed that Company Z was registered overseas in 2019, promoting itself under the guise of a "private bank" and developing a virtual banking app to create a facade of legitimacy, but it had not obtained the necessary foreign exchange business operation license in China and was essentially engaged in illegal foreign exchange activities. The gang targeted high-net-worth individuals with funding needs for overseas property purchases, immigration, and studying abroad, using intermediaries to attract clients, with customer managers, traders, and customer service personnel facilitating the currency exchange process. Clients purchased virtual currency from virtual currency exchangers with renminbi and transferred it to Company Z's overseas virtual wallet, after which the gang exchanged the virtual currency for foreign currency abroad and transferred it to the clients' designated overseas accounts. There was no actual cross-border flow of funds; instead, settlements were made through domestic and foreign capital pools, with Company Z charging a 3% currency exchange service fee and paying intermediaries a 0.5% commission.A total of nine individuals have been brought to justice in this case, while one main suspect is still under investigation. After review, the relevant personnel collectively violated national laws by illegally buying and selling foreign exchange, disrupting financial order, and the circumstances were serious or particularly serious, warranting criminal liability for illegal business operations. The court sentenced five individuals, including Gao and Li, to prison terms ranging from six years to two years and six months, and imposed fines ranging from 1.5 million yuan to 300,000 yuan; for Chen, Huang, and four others, due to lighter criminal circumstances, relatively smaller amounts involved, and voluntary confession, the procuratorial authority made a decision of relative non-prosecution according to the law.
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