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HP and Dell are concerned about circuit board supply in 2027, Amazon invests in Jinxing Electronics

The shortage caused by the AI boom has extended from GPUs and memory to circuit boards. When planning their supply chains for 2027, HP and Dell found that even previously inconspicuous printed circuit boards could face shortages. In September this year, Amazon invested approximately 1.59 billion New Taiwan Dollars in Taiwanese circuit board manufacturer Gold Circuit Electronics, transitioning from customer to shareholder.AI servers require circuit boards with more layers and lower signal loss, and chip packaging substrates are becoming larger, driving up the demand for key materials such as specialty fiberglass cloth and copper-clad laminates. Suppliers prioritize fulfilling more profitable AI orders, squeezing ordinary servers, with some ordinary server circuit board delivery times approaching one year.It is difficult for the production capacity of key materials to keep up with demand in the short term. TrendForce estimates that Japan's Nitto Denko controls about 90% of the global T-glass specialty fiberglass cloth market, with new production capacity not expected to come online until mid-2027 at the earliest. The chairman of Taiwanese substrate manufacturer Unimicron Technology warned on October 20 that some key materials could be short by about 20% by 2027, with delivery times for some chip substrate production equipment extending to as long as 30 months.

SK Hynix will announce its third-quarter financial report, with rumors of shareholder returns reaching up to 60 trillion won

SK Hynix will announce its Q3 2026 financial report after the U.S. stock market closes on Tuesday, along with a new shareholder return plan. The market is focused on the demand for high bandwidth memory (HBM), profitability, and whether a large special dividend will be issued. Other memory manufacturers such as Samsung Electronics and Kioxia Japan will also gradually announce their performance.The demand for AI infrastructure is driving an upward trend in the memory chip market. KB Securities analysts estimate that more than 70% of the memory that the two major Korean memory chip manufacturers plan to produce next year is covered by five-year supply agreements signed with large technology companies. The market is beginning to worry about the return on AI capital expenditures and financing costs, with investors paying more attention to order quality, the sustainability of future demand, and the pace of capacity expansion.Korean media previously reported that SK Hynix is considering issuing a special dividend of about 16 trillion won (approximately 12 billion USD); other reports suggest that the new shareholder return could reach as high as 60 trillion won (approximately 45 billion USD). These amounts have not been officially confirmed by the company. SK Hynix had previously announced a buyback and cancellation of treasury shares worth 40 trillion won and plans to use more than 50% of its free cash flow from 2025 to 2027 for shareholder returns.

Duan Yongping's estimated unrealized loss on his holdings in Pop Mart is approximately HKD 1.87 billion to HKD 2.12 billion

According to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's equity disclosure, Duan Yongping holds 106,716,000 shares of Pop Mart (09992.HK) through his investment entities, accounting for 8.01% of the issued shares. Based on the stock price of HKD 132.50 on October 27, the market value of the holdings is approximately HKD 14.14 billion.In terms of cost, Jiemian News quoted market estimates on October 26, indicating that the average comprehensive holding cost is around HKD 150 per share; Lan Jing News previously estimated the comprehensive cost to be about HKD 152.32 per share. The corresponding paper losses are approximately HKD 1.868 billion and HKD 2.115 billion, with loss ratios of about 11.67% and 13.01%. The relevant purchase records are: 9.8232 million shares bought on May 25 at an average price of HKD 150; 4.66 million shares bought on May 28 at an average price of HKD 162.5; 10.59 million shares bought on July 6, calculated at approximately HKD 150; and an additional 1 million shares on September 1 at an average price of HKD 155. The first three transactions total approximately 25.07 million shares, with an investment of about HKD 3.816 billion, and a weighted average price of approximately HKD 152.4.The above is based on media estimates of costs and is not the actual investment gains and losses disclosed by Duan Yongping; part of the underlying position comes from options trading, and the complete holding cost cannot be independently verified solely based on public information. Pop Mart's announcement shows that overall revenue for the third quarter of 2026 (unaudited) is expected to decline by 45% to 50% compared to the third quarter of 2025; a decline of 25% to 30% in China, 65% to 70% in the Asia-Pacific region, 70% to 75% in the Americas, and 50% to 55% in Europe and other regions; offline channels in China are expected to decline by 5% to 10%, while online channels are expected to decline by 45% to 50%.

Huawei Ascend 950PR's matrix computing speed is only 43% of H100

The semiconductor research organization SemiAnalysis has released the actual test results of Huawei's Ascend 950PR. The organization selected 1,055 sets of commonly used matrix calculations for large models. Huawei's own underlying program has allowed the 950PR to achieve 86% of its theoretical computing power, higher than NVIDIA's H100 at 75.5%; however, the actual computation speed is still only 43% of the H100, and only 21% compared to the relatively newer B300. This set of results has not yet utilized the newly ported operators from DeepSeek.DeepSeek is working on reducing data movement and waiting from the software side. In attention computation, after adjusting storage with FlashMLA, the two sets of data that originally needed to be read separately can now be retrieved at once; TileLang allows the chip to compute while preloading the next batch of data. SemiAnalysis measured that automatic scheduling has reduced the time for some small computing tasks by up to about 40%. DeepSeek has also ported DeepEP, which is responsible for MoE expert communication, but communication and computation will still compete for memory bandwidth, and Huawei plans to continue improving the firmware.Last year, DeepSeek attempted to train R2 using Huawei's Ascend chips, but even with Huawei engineers on-site for assistance, it could not be completed due to issues related to chip stability, inter-card communication, and software support. This year, both parties continue to collaborate, and by the end of September, DeepSeek focused on publicly releasing six sets of Ascend adaptation code. In October, it was reported that Huawei is adjusting the next generation of chip designs according to DeepSeek's model requirements. The 950PR tested this time is mainly aimed at inference input processing, while DeepSeek is preparing to use the 950DT for large-scale pre-training as early as the end of the year. Previously, both parties had conducted tests at the thousand-card level, but to enable tens of thousands of chips to complete a round of large model training continuously, more complex coordination and stability issues still need to be resolved.

The New York Times: The market expects the Federal Reserve to hold steady this week, and Waller must explain the reasons

According to The New York Times, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at the FOMC meeting this week (October 27 to 28). Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh needs to explain why he is not raising interest rates while inflationary pressures remain high, while also indicating that the determination to combat inflation has not weakened and keeping the possibility of another rate hike this year.The report states that the Federal Reserve raised rates once in September, and the market had once priced in another rate hike in October. New York Fed President John Williams, Vice President Jefferson, and Governor Waller expressed at the end of September to early October that they could wait a bit longer, causing the probability of an October rate hike to drop from over 70% to less than 30%. High oil prices and the demand for materials and electricity driven by AI infrastructure increased price pressures in September. The Nasdaq 100 index has fallen more than 7% since its historical high on October 6, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond had previously stood above 5% for several consecutive weeks.Stephen Stanley, Chief Economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets, stated that he expects interest rates to remain unchanged this week but believes there may still be another rate hike in December. Walsh needs to explain why he is not taking action in October while also clarifying why December is still under consideration. Since taking office in May, Walsh has provided little forward guidance on the interest rate path. The press conference after the decision to hold rates steady in July caused market volatility due to overly brief wording, and subsequent hawkish remarks in August, along with the rate hike in September and signals of another hike this year, somewhat repaired communication. This week's decision is approaching the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, and Trump had previously criticized the rate hike in September.

Goldman Sachs: Semiconductor exposure explains about 54% of the earnings difference, while oil prices account for only 2%

Goldman Sachs' latest research shows that over the past three weeks, semiconductor stock exposure has been able to explain about 54% of the return performance differences between different asset classes, while oil price exposure accounts for only 2%. As the influence of AI trading continues to expand, technology stocks are becoming an important factor driving global market risk appetite and asset performance differentiation.Goldman Sachs pointed out that recent investor risk appetite has been highly synchronized with the relative performance of large technology stocks. Last week, concerns about AI investment returns, financing costs, and capital expenditures intensified, leading to a sell-off in technology stocks and corporate bonds, with Goldman Sachs' risk appetite indicator falling to its lowest level since April 2025. The South Korean stock market has become a typical case of this impact, with the KOSPI rising 3.1% on Tuesday, and SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics increasing by 5.2% and 4.2%, respectively.Due to the high weight of semiconductor stocks in the Korea Composite Stock Price Index, changes in global AI investment expectations directly affect local market performance. Goldman Sachs emphasized that the 54% and 2% figures reflect a statistical relationship within a specific time window and do not imply that AI factors long-term determine global market fluctuations; the impact of high oil prices on inflation, monetary policy, and asset pricing cannot be ignored. Major technology companies such as Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are about to announce their earnings reports, and the market will focus on whether AI demand can continue to grow and whether massive capital expenditures can be converted into actual profits.

A-share closing review: The ChiNext Index fell over 3%, with more than 4,900 stocks declining

According to reports from the Financial Associated Press, the three major indices of A-shares quickly fell back in the afternoon, with the ChiNext Index dropping over 3%, after previously rising more than 1%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.46 trillion yuan, a decrease of 147.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 4,900 stocks in the entire market declining.On the market, in the robotics sector, Duolun Technology, Saifutian, and Xiangyang Bearing achieved four consecutive trading limits, while Guangyang Co. achieved two consecutive trading limits, and Dayang Motor reached its daily limit. In the consumer sector, food and beverage and retail led the gains, with Guifaxiang, Sunshine Dairy, and Qingdao Food achieving two consecutive trading limits, and Maoye Commercial and Guangbai Co. reaching their daily limits. The banking sector strengthened during the day, with Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank rising over 4%, reaching a new high for the year, while China Construction Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China set new historical highs.On the downside, the pharmaceutical sector weakened, with Lingkang Pharmaceutical and Wanze Co. hitting their daily limits, and stocks like Nearshore Protein and Shiyao Innovation experiencing significant declines. The edge-side AI concept saw fluctuations and adjustments, with Yidao Information hitting its daily limit, and companies like Xingchen Technology and Yiwei Communication also falling. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 2.5%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 3.41%.
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