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first_img The strengthening of the Japanese yen suppresses the US dollar index, benefiting Bitcoin and gold in the short term

The Japanese yen has recently strengthened significantly against the US dollar, with the USDJPY exchange rate falling 1.4% to 156.4, continuing a 0.9% decline from Wednesday. The US Dollar Index (DXY) subsequently dropped 0.4% to 99.22, testing its 200-day moving average around 99.1. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin and gold have risen in tandem, contrasting with the traditional understanding that "a stronger yen usually triggers risk-off selling."Analysis indicates that the strength of the yen is beneficial for Bitcoin primarily because it has lowered the US Dollar Index, and a weaker dollar typically supports dollar-denominated assets and eases global financial conditions. However, if the yen's appreciation accelerates, this dynamic may quickly reverse. Over the past decade, traders have borrowed large amounts of cheap yen to make bullish bets on stocks, bonds, and even cryptocurrencies; a disorderly appreciation of the yen could trigger the unwinding of these positions, leading to risk aversion.The rapid appreciation of the yen has previously put pressure on Bitcoin, most notably during the yen carry trade unwinding in August 2024, when Bitcoin fell about 20% within a few days. Currently, traders are increasing their bets that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates from 1% to 1.25% at the meeting on September 18, and it has been reported that US and Japanese authorities have previously intervened to support the yen, suggesting that there is little resistance to further strengthening of the yen.
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