Wintermute: Bitcoin's weekly close is below the 50-week moving average, with the next observation point at $68,000
According to market maker Wintermute in its latest market review, the S&P 500 index fell 4.4% last Thursday, marking the largest single-day drop since April 2025. Wintermute stated that after the Democratic Party secured both the House and Senate in the U.S. midterm elections, the market re-evaluated the regulatory risks in the artificial intelligence sector, and the cryptocurrency market weakened alongside risk assets, with Bitcoin dropping below $75,000. The net outflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $1.28 billion in a week, the largest scale since June this year, enough to wipe out the net inflow for the year. The non-farm payrolls released on Friday recorded 165,000 jobs, exceeding the market expectation of about 60,000, with the probability of a rate hike in December rising from about 67% a week ago to about 77%.Wintermute noted that Bitcoin briefly rose to $81,000 on Wednesday but had fully retraced by Friday; it hit a low of about $73,500 on Sunday, slightly above the 200-day moving average of about $73,000. The weekly close was just below the 50-week moving average of $75,500, ending a streak of seven consecutive weeks above that moving average. Entering Monday, over $1 billion in positions were liquidated, with Ethereum's liquidation scale exceeding that of Bitcoin, and almost all liquidations on the Bitcoin side were long positions. Altcoins experienced larger declines, with NEAR, HYPE, ENA, and LIT dropping by double digits, while Bitcoin fell about 4% during the same period, with ZEC being one of the few large-cap tokens to rise.Wintermute stated that it remains cautious while Bitcoin is below the 50-week moving average, with the next observation level at $68,000; reclaiming $80,000 would change this view. The institution mentioned that if the daily close is below $73,000 and the 200-day moving average, it could open up space towards $68,000; if the daily closes above $80,000 and the spot Bitcoin ETF records a net inflow for a week, its stance would turn positive. Wintermute pointed out that the October CPI to be released on Tuesday is the first recent test, with core CPI expected to increase by 0.2% month-on-month; the Federal Reserve will meet from December 8 to 9, with the current probability of a rate hike at about 77%.