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Galaxy Digital: The Bitcoin cycle low may be higher than before, with a potential bottom of $62,000 to $53,600

According to Cointelegraph, the latest research from Galaxy Digital indicates that due to a lack of speculative activity, the Bitcoin cycle low may occur at higher price levels than in previous bear markets. The analysis suggests that the potential bottom is between $62,000 and the actual Bitcoin price of $53,600.Galaxy's research director Alex Thorn analyzed each top and bottom of the Bitcoin cycle and noted that the four-year cycle is closely related to Bitcoin's historical trends. The decline from peak to trough has steadily narrowed across market cycles, decreasing from early drops of 85% and 84% to 77% in 2022 and 51% in 2026. The current top signal for October 2025 is weak, with only 2 out of 11 traditional top indicators signaling, while the widely watched Pi Cycle Top indicator has failed to trigger for the first time.The market capitalization to realized value ratio (MVRV) for Bitcoin peaked at 2.29, while this ratio ranged from 2.93 to 5.91 in previous cycles. The report also found that several key bottom signals are still missing. Currently, only 4 out of 13 indicators have been triggered, and most stronger signals have yet to appear. Thorn pointed out that based on the current cost price of $53,600, Galaxy estimates the fundamental bottom range to be between $40,000 and $46,000. A more severe "washout" scenario points to $30,000 to $37,000, while a more gradual decline may maintain around $51,000 to $54,000.

Standard Chartered Bank: The cryptocurrency market has reached a cyclical bottom, and Bitcoin is expected to return to $100,000 by the end of the year

According to CoinDesk, Standard Chartered Bank analyst Geoffrey Kendrick stated in a report on Friday that the cryptocurrency market has reached the final bottom of this monetary cycle. The cycle low for Bitcoin is currently set at $59,000, down 53% from the historical high of $126,000 reached on October 6. Kendrick expects that by the end of this year, the price of Ethereum will reach $4,000, and the price of Bitcoin will reach $100,000.He pointed out that there are two core factors supporting this market rebound. First, in recent weeks, Bitcoin spot ETFs have faced the most severe sell-off since their inception. Since the second week of May, total redemptions have exceeded $5.72 billion. He also noted that it is rumored that ETF holders have been liquidating their positions to free up funds to participate in SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO). Kendrick stated that SpaceX's IPO this Friday could end the current selling pressure.Second, if the G7-related peace agreement reached between the U.S. and Iran is true, it would help prevent oil prices from skyrocketing. A decline in oil prices would suppress the rising U.S. Treasury yields, thereby alleviating the macro pressure on the cryptocurrency market. To confirm that the market bottom is solid, Kendrick will closely monitor in the coming days: the news on Monday about Strategy (MSTR) increasing its Bitcoin holdings this week; whether the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF can restore net inflows this Friday.
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