ChainCatcher news, according to a Reuters survey: Among 102 economists, 65 expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates two times or less this year (compared to 41 out of 97 economists who had the same expectation last December). (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States exceeded expectations last week, but remains at a level consistent with a healthy labor market. The U.S. Department of Labor announced on Thursday that for the week ending January 11, the number of initial jobless claims increased by 14,000, seasonally adjusted, to 217,000.Economists had previously expected the number of initial jobless claims to be 210,000. Initial jobless claims tend to fluctuate significantly at the beginning of the year, but continue to show low layoff rates, providing support for the job market and the overall economy. The resilience of the job market, still moderate inflation, and the uncertainty surrounding President-elect Trump's broad tariff imposition and large-scale deportation plans for undocumented immigrants have led the Federal Reserve to anticipate only two rate cuts this year.

ChainCatcher News, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission announced that Chief Economist and Director of the Division of Economic and Risk Analysis (DERA) Jessica A. Wachter will be leaving on January 17.SEC Chairman Gary Gensler stated, "I am grateful for Jessica's leadership of the Division of Economic and Risk Analysis, her judgment, and her thoughtful economic analysis. As Chief Economist, she has skillfully led this division, which plays a key role in all of the SEC's critical decisions, whether in policy-making, enforcement, or market oversight. Working with Jessica has been immensely beneficial to me; she is one of my closest advisors. As she returns to academia, I wish her all the best."

ChainCatcher news, generally, there is sometimes a certain correlation between the weakness of the PPI and the weakness of the CPI in the same month. However, Santander Bank economist Stephen Stanley stated that the weaker-than-expected U.S. December PPI data does not necessarily mean that the December CPI data will also cool down. This correlation is particularly less obvious for the core CPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices.He pointed out that food and energy prices do show a good correlation between these two indicators, but the correlation with other categories of goods is lower. "My prediction for the CPI relies on the PPI prediction only for the food and energy part, but not for the core CPI," Stanley said. (Jinshi)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin Shi reports, Alliance Bernstein senior economist Eric Winograd stated that the Federal Reserve needs to make progress on inflation and that the labor market shows "some weakness" before it can cut interest rates again, which may take several months. The likelihood of rate hikes is low, as there are no signs indicating that inflation is accelerating again.Winograd noted that, aside from strong overall data, the three-month moving average increase in employment numbers is flat compared to November. The unemployment rate slightly decreased from 4.2% to 4.1%, having "remained between 4.0% and 4.2% for the past 7 months." Winograd believes that "aside from the soft landing we are currently enjoying, there is no reason to expect anything else."

ChainCatcher news, gold prices stabilized after three consecutive days of increase, as traders awaited the release of U.S. employment data, which will impact the Federal Reserve's policy outlook for this year. The non-farm payroll data for December is expected to show a slowdown in job growth, but still remain healthy, with economists predicting this growth will continue into 2025.Federal Reserve officials have hinted that they may keep interest rates at current levels for an extended period, only considering rate cuts again when inflation shows significant signs of cooling. As traders lower their expectations for rate cuts by the Fed in the first half of the year, the U.S. dollar index DXY is poised for a sixth week of gains, while the 10-year Treasury yield approaches its highest level since April of last year. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, U.S. Bank economists stated that the Federal Reserve's pause on interest rate cuts in January is clearly the baseline scenario. If the labor market stops gradually cooling down, the rate-cutting cycle may come to an end. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news reports that the U.S. market reacted enthusiastically to Trump's victory, but this trade has since eased.Economist Phil Suttle proposed another scenario. His outlook indicates that the more aggressively Trump implements policies such as deportation and tariffs, the greater the likelihood that the U.S. will fall into stagflation panic in the coming years. If immigration is cut off and workers are deported, the labor force may lose all growth momentum and even shrink.Suttle estimates that, combined with tariffs, economic growth could stagnate or even reverse in 2025 and 2026. Meanwhile, labor shortages and tariffs could drive up prices, potentially pushing inflation rates above 3% annually. Suttle believes that Trump's more radical policies could exacerbate these effects.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin Shi reports, former senior economist of the Obama administration and current Harvard University professor Jason Furman believes that if the labor market remains healthy, the Federal Reserve may only cut the benchmark interest rate once this year.Jason Furman stated that the Federal Reserve has entered a new phase of "needing a reason" to lower interest rates. Last year, the Federal Reserve thought "everything was fine, so why not cut rates," but if the labor market remains healthy, considering concerns about the inflation outlook and uncertainty about whether interest rates are already at the optimal level to slow demand, a 25 basis point cut this year is the most likely scenario.However, Jason Furman added that if circumstances change and the unemployment rate begins to rise, "the Federal Reserve will intervene" and ease policies.

ChainCatcher news, according to Bitcoin.com, old-school economists oppose allocating U.S. reserve funds to Bitcoin. Johns Hopkins University professor Steve Hanke stated that he believes transferring funds to Bitcoin could hinder economic growth and drag down the economy, as these savings are not invested in real capital assets.Steve Hanke emphasized the importance of increasing productivity for improving living standards and called the idea of Bitcoin reserves "the dumbest idea."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Chief Economist Cheng Shi of ICBC International stated at the 2025 China Chief Economist Forum Annual Meeting that the adjustment path of U.S. monetary policy in 2025 will be a "first urgent, then gradual" process. Currently, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by about 50-75 basis points in 2025.Cheng Shi indicated that the re-inflation risks faced by the U.S. can be viewed from two dimensions: first, the current U.S. inflation is in a zone where it is easy to rise but difficult to fall, and there is very little room for further decline, making it quite challenging. In fact, there are many potential factors that could drive U.S. inflation upward. Second, the current market has formed an upward expectation for U.S. inflation, and inflation expectations tend to be self-fulfilling, which will create substantial upward pressure on inflation.

ChainCatcher news, economists at Pidgen Leigel Asset Management stated in a report on the economic outlook that as inflation declines and unemployment rises, the Federal Reserve's rate cuts in 2025 may exceed market expectations. They noted that the Fed's preferred core inflation measure could fall below 2% at some point in 2025, while the U.S. unemployment rate could reach 4.4% or higher by the end of 2025.They also indicated that the Fed could "easily" lower rates by more than the current market expectation of a 35 basis point cut in 2025. The optimal level for the federal funds rate would be 3.3%, which implies at least four rate cuts in 2025.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis's previously proposed funding plan for Bitcoin purchases partially relies on the large gold heritage owned by the United States—these gold reserves were left over from the era when the dollar was pegged to precious metals, allowing dollar holders to exchange dollars for gold at a fixed price.Although the dollar has not been convertible to gold since the early 1970s, the Treasury and the Federal Reserve still hold about 8,100 tons of gold. The government values this gold at $42 per ounce, which is far below the current market price of $2,650.Cynthia Lummis hopes the Treasury can reassess this gold at current market prices and use the paper profits to fund Bitcoin purchases without raising taxes or issuing new national debt. However, critics point out that this operation is not a free lunch; it would require the Federal Reserve to cover the difference between the gold certificates held by the Treasury and the new valuation through a combination of printing money and asset sales.Monetary economist George Selgin argues that this operation amounts to a "backdoor loan" from the government, bypassing the regular appropriation process to avoid new debt and obscuring the truth. Lummis's bill relies heavily on gilded magic, and George Selgin said, "What better way to win public support than to make people believe this plan won't cost a dime?"

ChainCatcher news, UOB economist Alvin Liew stated that the Bank of Japan has not finished raising interest rates, but the timing of future hikes is now expected to be influenced by wage growth next year and the clarity of Trump’s policies. This means that while the possibility of a rate hike in January is not completely ruled out, it now appears to be a low-probability event.Although the policy statement and Governor Ueda's press conference did not provide forward guidance, Ueda emphasized that the wage increase situation in Japan in 2025 and considerations regarding Trump’s policies are key to the next decision. UOB expects the Bank of Japan to raise rates by 25 basis points to 0.5% in March, which the bank believes will be the terminal rate. However, there is a significant risk that the rate hike could be postponed to April or later.

ChainCatcher news, Kathy Bostjancic, Chief Economist of Nationwide Insurance, stated that the focus for next year will be Trump. Based on our forecasts for potential anti-inflation trends (especially in the service sector), the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by another 75 basis points next year."However, depending on the extent of tariff increases and specific import targets, overall inflation may be higher than our baseline forecast, which could lead to the Federal Reserve's rate cuts being less than we expect." (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Bank of America economist Stephen Juneau wrote in a report to clients on Thursday, "The upcoming potential policy changes, higher tariffs, deficit-financed tax cuts, and tighter immigration policies could all put upward pressure on prices.In fact, due to these policy changes, we predict that the core PCE inflation rate will hardly decline over the next two years. At next week's meeting, the Federal Reserve will also have to acknowledge the lack of progress on inflation, and we believe the Fed may pause interest rate cuts in January next year, with the risk that policy changes (during Trump's second term) could make this pause prolonged."

ChainCatcher news, a Reuters survey released on Friday showed that most economists expect the Bank of Japan to keep its interest rate unchanged at 0.25% during its December policy meeting to assess overseas risks and next year's wage outlook. In the survey conducted from December 4 to 11, 58% of respondents (33 out of 57 economists) believe that the Bank of Japan will not raise interest rates again in December, compared to 44% in last month's survey.All respondents in the latest survey predict that by the end of March next year, the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by at least 25 basis points to 0.50%, despite almost all central banks globally leaning towards further rate cuts. Analysts say that the Bank of Japan is watching the trends in spring wage negotiations next year and hopes to strengthen communication of policy changes to market participants before the central bank meeting in January through speeches and branch manager meetings. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, economist and gold advocate Peter Schiff posted on the X platform that one good thing Biden could do before leaving office as President of the United States is to sell all the Bitcoin currently held by the U.S. government. The funds raised could not only reduce the budget deficit for 2024 but also put an end to all the nonsense about "strategic Bitcoin reserves." He added, "Biden could sell everything before Trump takes office, so Trump wouldn't have to go back on his campaign promises."

ChainCatcher news, economist Mohammad Sadegh Alhosseini stated that the value of cryptocurrencies held by Iran is between 30 billion and 50 billion dollars, accounting for about one-third of the country's gold market. Iran's daily cryptocurrency trading volume is approximately 143 million dollars (1 trillion rials).The Central Bank of Iran (CBI) and the Ministry of Finance are developing measures to increase the transparency of the cryptocurrency market, which has been used to circumvent U.S. sanctions on international banking. Last Saturday, the CBI released a policy document aimed at aligning cryptocurrency trading with Iran's anti-money laundering and tax laws.Alhosseini warned that stricter regulations could expose sanction-evading businesses to U.S. penalties, which would hold the CBI accountable. He suggested that private entities could play a role in organizing the market to reduce the risk of direct government oversight. (Bitcoin.com)

ChainCatcher message, according to Reuters, AMP Chief Economist and Head of Investment Strategy Shane Oliver stated: "Over time, it is proving itself to be a part of the financial realm, more like a store of value rather than a conventional asset."