ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in May is 39.8%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 60.2%.

ChainCatcher news, UK interest rate futures indicate that the Bank of England will cut rates by about 95 basis points by the end of 2025, down from about 78 basis points on Tuesday. Traders have raised their expectations for a rate cut by the Bank of England, believing that a 50 basis point cut may occur in May.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin10 data reports, the yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond rose by 25 basis points to 5.010%, the highest level since the end of 2023.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the U.S. Treasury yield curve continues to steepen, with the 30-year yield rising by 10 basis points.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in May is 54.6%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 45.4%.

ChainCatcher message, Goldman Sachs has adjusted its expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, believing that the risk of the Fed further easing policy is higher if a recession hits. Goldman now expects the Fed to begin a series of rate cuts in June, earlier than the previously predicted July, as part of a preventive easing cycle.Under the baseline assumption that the U.S. avoids recession, the Fed will cut rates three times by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate down to a range of 3.5%-3.75%. However, Goldman expects that if the economy does fall into recession, the Fed will respond with more aggressive policy measures, cutting rates by about 200 basis points next year. Considering the increased likelihood of a recession, the firm's current weighted forecast shows a total rate cut of 130 basis points by 2025, up from the previous 105 basis points. As of last Friday's close, this outlook is largely in line with current market expectations.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in May is 33.3%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 66.7%.

ChainCatcher news, UBS expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 75-100 basis points for the remainder of 2025.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin10, the yields on U.S. 10-year and 2-year Treasury futures fell by 10 basis points, reporting at 4.06% and 3.798%, respectively.

ChainCatcher message, the Federal Reserve's dot plot shows that among 19 officials, 4 officials believe there should be no rate cuts in 2025 (1 in December), 4 officials believe there should be a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points in 2025, which means 1 rate cut (3 in December), 9 officials believe there should be a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points in 2025, which means 2 rate cuts (10 in December), 2 officials believe there should be a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points in 2025, which means 3 rate cuts (3 in December), no officials believe there should be a cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points in 2025 (1 in December), and no officials believe there should be a cumulative rate cut of 125 basis points in 2025 (1 in December).

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Barclays' latest forecast shows that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June and September this year, a revision from the previous expectation of only one rate cut in June. This change may reflect the market's further consideration of inflation and slowing economic growth.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, after the release of the non-farm payroll report, U.S. short-term interest rate futures fell. U.S. interest rate futures traders are no longer betting on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in May. Currently, they are betting on the Fed to resume rate cuts in June, still expecting the Fed to cut rates by about 75 basis points this year.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the European Central Bank has lowered the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, in line with market expectations, marking the fifth consecutive meeting of rate cuts.The main refinancing rate and the marginal lending rate have been reduced from 2.90% and 3.15% to 2.65% and 2.9%, respectively.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, State Street Global Advisors analyst Konrad Kleinfeld stated that the European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates on Thursday, with two more cuts anticipated this year.Data from LSEG shows that the market has fully priced in the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming European Central Bank decision. Following a 25 basis point cut in January this year, the remaining three cuts will bring the total monetary easing this year to 100 basis points.Kleinfeld stated, "Despite recent developments and Europe's urgent need to increase defense and fiscal spending, we still believe that the European Central Bank will cautiously adjust its interest rate policy in this environment." The current main deposit rate of the European Central Bank is 2.75%.

ChainCatcher news, the Bank of Korea today cut the interest rate by 25 basis points, shifting from a restrictive monetary policy to a neutral stance amid growing concerns about growth. This is the third rate cut by the Bank of Korea since the beginning of the rate-cutting cycle last October, bringing South Korea's interest rates about 150 basis points lower than the Federal Reserve's target range of 4.25-4.50%.The central bank also lowered its economic growth forecast for this year from 1.9% to 1.5%, while maintaining the inflation forecast for this year and next at 1.9%. The market reacted lukewarmly to the rate cut. With the uncertainty of U.S. policy's impact on the South Korean economy and factors such as the domestic political crisis, the market direction of interest rates may experience fluctuations, posing complex communication challenges for the Bank of Korea. The market will now turn its attention to the press conference held by Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-yong at 10:10 AM Beijing time, where dissenters of the policy decision may appear.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, traders are increasing their bets on the European Central Bank's interest rate cuts, expecting an additional 80 basis points cut this year.

ChainCatcher news, ANZ Bank stated that it expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to be more cautious after the rate cut on Wednesday. Chief Economist Sharon Zollner said, "This may be the last time we cut by 50 basis points."However, considering that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's central estimate for the neutral interest rate is 3%, the risk of the policy rate bottoming out tends to be below our forecast of 3.5%. "The tone of the policy statement is expected to reflect a moderate confidence in inflation while acknowledging the upside risks to overall inflation." Due to unexpected GDP, the interest rate trajectory may decline, but considering the mixed signals from capacity indicators, along with the offsetting effects of the New Zealand dollar depreciation and rising export prices, we expect the overall trajectory will not change significantly.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Standard Chartered Bank analysis indicates that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may cut interest rates by 50 basis points at the meeting on February 19, and an unexpected outcome is unlikely.The central bank has communicated well regarding this move, and we believe the likelihood of any surprises in either direction is very low. On the risk side, we think that if economic data remains sluggish, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may adopt a more aggressive approach to easing monetary policy in the second quarter (compared to a single rate cut of 25 basis points) in order to restore interest rates to neutral (2.5-3.5%) more quickly.

ChainCatcher message, after the release of the CPI data, according to CME's "Fed Watch," the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in March is only 2.5%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 97.5%.The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting rates by 50 basis points by May is 0.2%, the probability of a cumulative cut of 25 basis points is 11.7%, and the probability of maintaining the current rate is 88.1%.

ChainCatcher news, PGIM Fixed Income stated in a report that the Bank of Japan may raise the benchmark interest rate by another 25 basis points this year. However, if Japanese consumers significantly increase their spending, the Bank of Japan may accelerate the pace of rate hikes. It noted that the Bank of Japan is approaching a nominal policy interest rate of around 2% through gradual rate increases, with the most recent hike raising the rate to the important psychological level of 0.5%. In the long term, PGIM believes that the Bank of Japan considers at least a nominal interest rate of 1% to be appropriate.