ChainCatcher news, Goldman Sachs released a report indicating that the forecast for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this year has been revised down from 1 basis point to 0.75 basis points, and the reports on the rebound of core inflation have been greatly exaggerated. The annualized core PCE inflation from September to November last year was 2.5%, slightly higher than the 2.3% from the previous three months, but lower than the 2.8% year-on-year increase, still consistent with the ongoing decline.The report also stated that the adjusted average PCE inflation by the Dallas Fed for the annualized PCE inflation from September to November last year was 2.4%, with November last year at 1.8%. As the labor market tightens back to 2017 levels, the annual wage growth rate has slowed to 3.9%, within the range of 3.5% to 4%. If productivity grows by 1.5% to 2% in the coming years, it will align with the 2% inflation target.Goldman Sachs also assumes that the average tariff rate on U.S. imports from China will be raised by 20%, and tariffs will be imposed on European cars and Mexican electric vehicles, which is expected to increase inflation by 0.3% to 0.4% next year. However, this impact should dissipate after a year, unless significant second-round effects arise from wages or inflation expectations. This will make it comparable to the VAT increases that have occurred multiple times in other G10 economies, as VAT increases typically do not leave a lasting impact on inflation or monetary policy.Additionally, the tightening of the financial environment during the trade war from 2018 to 2019 was sufficient to prompt the Federal Reserve to ease its policy, suggesting that the monetary policy risks associated with tariffs are at least two-sided. (Jin Shi)

Galaxy Research shared its predictions for the cryptocurrency market in 2025 via Twitter, covering various areas including Bitcoin, Ethereum, stablecoins, DeFi, and L2s. The main predictions include:Bitcoin is expected to break $150,000 in the first half of 2025, potentially reaching or exceeding $185,000 in the fourth quarter.Benefiting from regulatory easing in the DeFi and staking sectors, Ethereum is projected to surpass $5,500 in 2025.By the end of 2025, the staking ratio of Ethereum is expected to exceed 50%.In 2025, a significant number of leading Bitcoin miners are expected to collaborate with high-performance computing (HPC) and AI companies to drive the transformation of mining infrastructure.At least one top wealth management platform will announce a recommendation for a Bitcoin allocation of 2% or higher in portfolios, further driving inflows into Bitcoin ETPs.DeFi enters the "dividend era": DeFi applications are expected to start distributing at least $1 billion in value to users and token holders.In 2025, venture capital in the crypto industry is expected to exceed $150 billion, with a year-on-year growth of over 50%.By 2025, the supply of stablecoins is expected to double, and more stablecoin projects supported by traditional finance (TradFi) partners will be launched.

ChainCatcher news, Framework Ventures co-founder releases 2025 predictions, specific content in the Crypto field includes:The inflow of Ethereum and Bitcoin ETFs reaches parity driven by the launch of merged ETFs, averaging $1 billion each daily in the second half of the year.A continued altcoin season emerges.Calculated by MAUs/DAUs, gaming x artificial intelligence becomes the largest vertical field.Energy DePIN led by Glow and Daylight matches fees with blue-chip DeFi.Meme coins evolve into different categories (temporary, AI-driven, factory-produced, high market cap), leading to more decentralization.Total DeFi fees will reach $10 billion annually.Large banks begin tokenization, paving the way to eliminate significant waste in the U.S. financial system.Other crypto ETFs besides BTC/ETH are postponed to launch in 2026.

ChainCatcher news, asset management company VanEck previously released ten predictions for the 2025 cryptocurrency market on the X platform, but later stated that VanEck may hold positions in the mentioned digital assets. The information published is not intended as advice for buying or selling any securities or digital assets mentioned, nor as a call to action.VanEck stated that investing in digital assets carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors, as their prices are extremely volatile, and there is no guarantee that they will rise again if their value declines.VanEck added that any predictions, forecasts, or forward-looking statements published are based on simulated results from research and are valid as of the date of publication; users should conduct their own research and draw their own conclusions.

ChainCatcher news, ING analyst Chris Turner stated in a report that the market remains cautious ahead of the U.S. employment data release in November, with the dollar holding steady.Weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll data could disrupt the recent strengthening trend of the dollar since Trump's election victory, although it is unlikely that the dollar will appreciate again for a long time. U.S. employment numbers are expected to rebound after a weak month last time. A growth of fewer than 200,000 jobs may be considered a "bad number," while more than 300,000 is seen as a "good number." ING suggests treating any dollar decline as a buying opportunity. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that if the economic and price trends align with forecasts, the Bank of Japan will continue to raise policy interest rates and adjust the level of monetary support. The timing of interest rate hikes will depend on the economic, price, and financial outlook. Vigilance must be maintained regarding various risks, including trends in overseas markets. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, JPMorgan has revised its 2025 Federal Reserve interest rate forecast to a quarterly rate cut starting in March. Previously, JPMorgan expected a 100 basis point cut in 2025.

ChainCatcher News, the well-known American election forecasting organization "Sabato's Crystal Ball" predicted on Monday that this year's elections will result in a split in the House of Representatives by a single vote.In an article published on Monday, the organization's editor Larry Sabato, executive editor, and deputy editor wrote: "Like the presidential race, the battle for the House has essentially been a tug-of-war throughout the entire cycle." "We have always believed that the winners of the presidency and the House are likely to be the same person, but the margin is very slim. We believe that 218 seats are safe, likely, or leaning Democratic, while 217 seats are safe, likely, or leaning Republican." The House is currently led by Republicans, but the advantage is very narrow, and they hope to maintain this position. According to Hill/Decision Desk's forecast, the chances of Republicans winning the House are 52%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data, Atlanta Federal Reserve President and FOMC voting member Bostic stated that when updating the Fed's dot plot in September, he expects the Fed will only cut rates by another 25 basis points this year.However, he mentioned that his predictions are not set in stone and he will adjust them as necessary based on upcoming inflation and labor market data. The Fed cut rates by 50 basis points in September and is expected to implement a series of rate cuts over the next year to alleviate some of the policy constraints imposed to reduce inflation.

ChainCatcher message, Bank of America strategists Mark Cabana and Katie Craig stated in a report that the bank now expects the Federal Reserve to end its balance sheet reduction by the end of March 2025, compared to the previous forecast of December 2024, due to the lack of discussion among policymakers regarding its policy. The September FOMC meeting indicated that the Federal Reserve believes changes in policy rates and the balance sheet are independent of each other.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Goolsbee stated that as inflation cools, the Federal Reserve's policy has passively tightened. There is ample reason to believe that the Federal Reserve's forecast regarding interest rate cuts will be realized.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, JPMorgan predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September and November.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos recently wrote that Federal Reserve officials are expected to modify their statements this week, hinting at a greater likelihood of interest rate cuts in September.Seemingly trivial changes in wording will have a significant impact on the prospects for a rate cut in September. Acknowledging recent improvements in inflation and a more balanced risk outlook, as well as any changes in forward guidance, will lay the groundwork for Powell's press conference. As for why there won't be a rate cut this week, aside from the benefits of a July cut, most Federal Reserve officials have stated that a rate cut is not yet necessary.Regarding the short-term outlook, the Federal Reserve is facing an awkward and complex situation: the two-day policy meeting in November will be held the day after the presidential election. While the Fed has made policy adjustments before and after elections in the past, officials are trying to maintain a non-political stance in their decision-making process. This will make their public communication appear clearer, more predictable, and more thoughtful.

ChainCatcher news, 10x Research indicates that its initial Bitcoin downside target of $55,000 has been reached. Bitcoin appears to be oversold in the short term and may experience a rebound, with macroeconomic positives expected next week.Additionally, the SEC may approve an Ethereum ETF, which could have a positive impact in the short term. However, in the medium term, they believe this is not a significant buying opportunity.

ChainCatcher news, Macquarie Group economists expect that, thanks to the recent decline in inflation, the Federal Reserve will begin to ease monetary policy starting in December ------ rather than in the first quarter of 2025."The breadth indicators show significant improvement, which is favorable for the decline in inflation," economist David Doyle wrote on Tuesday regarding the May CPI report. "This improvement, along with more mixed signals from the labor market, has prompted us to bring forward our baseline scenario for FOMC easing."Macquarie currently expects a 25 basis point rate cut in the fourth quarter, specifically in December; previously, it was expected in the first quarter of 2025.