ChainCatcher message, the CICC research report indicates that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized the word "uncertainty" the most during this meeting, highlighting that a considerable part of the variables comes from the randomness of tariff policies. Overall, the weakening of growth (but not much recession pressure) and the rising inflation risks (mainly due to tariff disruptions) have had a mutually offsetting effect, leading the Federal Reserve to maintain its expectations for interest rate cuts for the year. This also implies two layers of meaning: first, if it weren't for tariff risks, the Federal Reserve could have cut rates long ago; second, if tariffs are significantly reduced, it will force the Federal Reserve to delay the timing of rate cuts, so currently, the focus remains on waiting and observing.

ChainCatcher message, Fitch analyst Brian Coulton wrote that the latest economic forecasts from Federal Reserve officials reflect the expected impact of tariffs. The Fed now expects the PCE inflation rate to be 2.7% by the end of 2025, up from the December estimate of 2.5%. The GDP growth forecast has been downgraded from 2.1% to 1.7%.This change "illustrates the adverse effects of tariffs," as tariffs will raise the prices of imported consumer goods and capital goods. Coupled with the recent sharp rise in households' expectations for inflation over the next five years, this makes the Fed's job even more difficult.