ChainCatcher news, CryptoQuant analysts indicate that the liquidation of long positions may have established a local bottom. Although price sentiment remains bearish and technical indicators suggest the possibility of further declines, the liquidation levels of long positions in the Bitcoin futures market indicate that selling pressure has eased. During significant price drops, the number of contracts purchased often declines sharply due to liquidations, thereby alleviating the market's selling pressure.On October 1, over 4,000 BTC long positions were liquidated, marking the second-largest liquidation event of 2024 according to CryptoQuant data. Typically, these moments of high losses and liquidations form local bottoms, opening up space for short-term recoveries. Currently, prices may maintain the current range in the short term, but attention needs to be paid to the buying strength to reverse the downward trend.

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, cryptocurrency research company Santiment's market director Brian Quinlavin stated in a blog post that when five major "panic" words are frequently used on social media, it may indicate that the cryptocurrency market has bottomed out.These words are "FUD," "sell," "death," "crash," and "liquidation." Taking a "contrarian" approach to social media sentiment is often the right decision.

ChainCatcher message,招商宏观评美联储降息：Overall, three signals:The Federal Reserve believes that the impact of the pandemic on employment and inflation has ended;The era of forward guidance has temporarily come to an end. The Federal Reserve is reluctant to reveal all policy cards, and a significant rate cut of 50 basis points is aimed at preventing large fluctuations in U.S. stocks and bonds that have already priced in this expectation. Powell's continued wait-and-see attitude is also to prevent a recurrence of situations similar to early August, when concerns about a hard landing for the U.S. economy led to a reversal of yen carry trades;In addition, the Federal Reserve also wants to prevent a collapse of the siphoning effect on U.S. stocks due to significant rate cuts, which could lead to large-scale capital outflows from the U.S. capital markets. Therefore, until U.S. economic data deteriorates significantly, even if the Federal Reserve cuts rates substantially, it may not significantly boost all non-U.S. assets. However, it can be expected that the U.S. dollar index is likely to struggle to strengthen temporarily, which may alleviate the depreciation pressure on non-U.S. currencies. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher message, trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio shared on his personal social platform: "The last Token2049 marked a local bottom for the market and signaled the beginning of a new round of altcoin cycles. What will this Token2049 bring?"

ChainCatcher news, K33 Research analysts indicate that as the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index reaches a 23-month high of 0.67, the cryptocurrency market will be significantly influenced by the CPI release on Wednesday and the FOMC meeting on September 18, when the Federal Reserve will make its highly anticipated latest interest rate decision. However, the ongoing bearish sentiment has pushed the average daily funding rate in the perpetual contract market to its lowest level since March 2023.Analysts point out, "This is the seventh time since 2018 that the 30-day average funding rate has hit negative levels. This provides a compelling reason for a positive price trend in the coming months." According to K33's data, since 2018, after the 30-day average return turned negative, the 90-day average return was 79%, with a median 90-day return of 55%.

ChainCatcher news, K33 Research stated in a market report released on Tuesday that a reliable indicator suggests a significant rebound in the coming weeks and months. According to the report, the 30-day average funding rate for perpetual contracts has dropped to negative levels, a phenomenon that has only occurred six times since 2018.K33 analysts Vetle Lunde and David Zimmerman wrote, "Historically, when the monthly funding rate falls to negative, it usually indicates a market bottom."The report noted that after this indicator turned negative, the average return over the next 90 days was 79%, while the median return over 90 days was 55%.

According to ChainCatcher news, monitored by Lookonchain, a certain whale has once again bottom-fished by purchasing 5,000 Ethereum in the past two days, worth approximately 11.46 million dollars.This investor previously bought 5,200 Ethereum in November 2022 at an average price of 1,322 dollars. Subsequently, between December 2023 and January 2024, they sold at an average price of 2,093 dollars, making a profit of over 4 million dollars.

ChainCatcher news, K33 Research analyst Vetle Lunde stated that the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual futures has been below neutral for over 30 consecutive days, with the average funding rate over the past four weeks currently at a negative level for the first time since December 25, 2022. When the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual futures is negative, it indicates that traders are mostly betting on a decline in asset prices. However, hedging or directly shorting positions are becoming increasingly crowded, which is also a clear indicator that sellers are nearing exhaustion.The analyst pointed out that if the market follows seasonal trends, September will be a good opportunity to buy on dips, followed by a potential recovery in the fourth quarter of this year. Historically, buying on dips in September has indeed yielded good returns by the end of the year.

ChainCatcher news, Bitfinex released a report stating, "This month's Federal Reserve interest rate decision is expected to significantly impact Bitcoin's short-term volatility and long-term trend. Since the beginning of August, Bitcoin has risen over 32%, primarily driven by traders' expectations that the Federal Reserve will make dovish statements. A 25 basis point rate cut could mark the beginning of a typical easing cycle, which may lead to a long-term price increase for Bitcoin due to increased liquidity and alleviated recession concerns. On the other hand, a larger 50 basis point cut could cause an immediate spike in Bitcoin's price, but it may be followed by a pullback as recession fears intensify. In the past week, we have seen spot holders reducing risk while speculators in the perpetual contract market attempt to 'buy the dip', and we continue to observe a large number of long open contracts on Bitcoin perpetual contracts.If we were to make a prediction, we would caution that a 15-20% drop may occur during this month's rate cut, with Bitcoin's bottom potentially between $40,000 and $50,000. This is not an arbitrary figure, but rather based on the fact that the peak return percentage in each cycle typically decreases by about 60-70%, and the average bull market pullback is also decreasing. However, if macroeconomic conditions change, this logic could be easily negated. For traders, these moments are filled with uncertainty.Historically, September has been a month of high volatility for Bitcoin, with an average return of -4.78%, and a typical peak-to-trough decline of about 24.6%. This volatility, combined with a potential 'sell the news' reaction after the rate cut, could present both risks and opportunities for traders. Meanwhile, the increasing correlation of Bitcoin with traditional risk assets, such as the S&P 500 index, indicates that its price fluctuations will be closely tied to global macroeconomic conditions. Actions by other major central banks, such as the European Central Bank potentially pausing rate hikes amid slowing growth, and the Bank of Japan's cautious stance in a slowly recovering economy, could have ripple effects on global markets and impact digital assets like Bitcoin."

ChainCatcher news, according to on-chain data analyst @ai_9684xtpa's monitoring, a "Smart Money" address that "shorted BTC to earn 5.16 million dollars during the LUNA/UST crash" has re-entered a position in ETH after 9 months. In the past 7 hours, he bought 4,192 ETH on-chain at an average price of 2,490 dollars, totaling about 10.43 million dollars, and then staked the tokens in Lido and RocketPool. It is reported that this whale address seems to be very skilled at bottom-fishing; from February 18 to March 7, he also made a profit of 2.25 million dollars in just half a month by buying high and selling low with WBTC.

ChainCatcher message, CryptoQuant analyst Woominkyu's latest analysis report points out that there is a close correlation between the Bitcoin hash price and the Bitcoin price. The currently low hash price may suggest that the Bitcoin price is approaching its bottom.Woominkyu explains that the hash price reflects the profitability of miners. He illustrates through charts that historically, when the hash price drops to a low level (the area marked by the blue box in the chart), it often corresponds to periods when the Bitcoin price is at or near its lowest point. This historical pattern indicates that the lows in hash price often coincide with the moments when the Bitcoin price hits bottom.

ChainCatcher news, according to Decrypt, a new report from Bernstein Research indicates that the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, may undergo significant changes based on the outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election.Analysis suggests that a potential victory for Donald Trump could catalyze a bottoming out of Bitcoin prices, leading to a rise in the prices of major cryptocurrencies. The report states: "We believe that Bitcoin prices will only bottom out when the crypto market becomes interested in the possibility of Trump winning, as the crypto market continues to interpret a Republican victory as a favorable factor for crypto policy." This insight comes as cryptocurrency prices remain range-bound, which Bernstein attributes to the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, Bitget Research's chief analyst Ryan Lee stated that every time the ETH gas fees hit a low, it often indicates a mid-term price bottom. The price of ETH tends to rebound strongly after this cycle, and when this moment coincides with a rate cut cycle, the market's wealth effect is full of possibilities.Lee noted that Ethereum's gas fees have dropped to their lowest level in five years, which can be attributed to the popularity of memes and the migration of Dapp interactive users to other faster and cheaper blockchains, such as Solana and Layer 2. Additionally, the Dencun upgrade has also improved network efficiency, thereby reducing gas fees.

ChainCatcher news, Andrew Kang, co-founder and partner of the crypto venture capital firm Mechanism Capital, stated on social media that the market capitalization of altcoins (and ETH) should reach new highs in the new cycle, but that is not the case. Even if Bitcoin reaches a new high, it does not mean that altcoins will follow suit.This is the first cycle where the market capitalization of altcoins has reached a lower high. Altcoins will bottom out at some point in 2025, and the next wave will be driven by tokens related to decentralized AI infrastructure. AGI will require unstoppable communication, value transfer, training, computing/reasoning, energy markets, and data storage tracks.

ChainCatcher news, according to on-chain data analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, cookislandstrust.eth sold the ETH he bought during the dip on August 5th one hour ago.It is reported that after the plunge on August 5th, he spent 7.05 million USDT to buy 2,978 ETH at an average price of $2,367, and sold all of it one hour ago at a price of $2,586, making a profit of $720,000. Thus, he has sold all the ETH and PEPE he bought during the market downturn on August 5th, with a total profit of $750,000 (+7%).

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant stated in a report that Bitcoin miners are once again expanding their capacity, as the network hash rate reached an all-time high this week following a "surrender" event. On Tuesday, the network hash rate set a new record of 627 exahash per second, recovering from an 8.5% drop in early July. The hash price (i.e., the average revenue per unit of mining power) also hit an all-time low, but miners are still expanding their capacity, indicating that their sentiment remains optimistic despite the sell-off in recent months.CryptoQuant stated: "Last week we may have seen a miner surrender event, as Bitcoin outflows from miners surged after the price hit $49,000. On August 5, the daily miner outflow of Bitcoin soared to 19,000 BTC, the highest level since March 18. Miners sold some Bitcoin as their average operating profit margin was squeezed to 25%, the lowest level since January 22." During bull markets, miner surrender events typically occur near local bottoms in Bitcoin prices.

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin has issued its third "local bottom" signal in 2024. The latest research released by the on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant on August 8 shows that the Network Value to Transactions Golden Cross (NVT-GC) tool indicates a bullish trend. Bitcoin's price is "overcooled."This week, Bitcoin faces warnings of another price drop as the moving averages have formed what is known as a "death cross." However, other market indicators call for a continued rebound. One of these is the NVT-GC, which CryptoQuant describes as a volatility indicator similar to Bollinger Bands. NVT compares Bitcoin's market capitalization to the transaction value over a specific time frame, while the golden cross version compares the long-term and short-term NVT values. The result is a rough guide to local market tops and bottoms, and in 2024, three such bottom signals have already been generated.