Bitfinex Report: The crypto market may have formed a potential local bottom, but caution is needed regarding the Fed's subsequent news agenda
ChainCatcher news, Bitfinex Alpha's latest report states that on July 3, the price of Bitcoin fell below the 120-day range to $53,219 due to market concerns over the German government's and Mt. Gox creditors' sell-off. However, weekend market data suggests that a potential local bottom may have been reached. The market realizes that although the Bitcoin transferred by the German government has a large nominal value, it constitutes a small proportion of the total trading volume. Volatility indicators show that the market expects greater stability in the future, with Bitcoin likely to hover around current levels or experience reduced declines.Market positioning indicates complacency among short sellers, with more late short sellers in the short term, and both sides may lack clear conviction. Long-term Bitcoin holders continue to realize significant profits, while short-term holders' sell-off may be nearing exhaustion. The funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts has turned negative for the first time since the bottom on May 1, which may indicate that the market is oversold. Combined with the recovering SOPR, this typically suggests that the market is finding a bottom. On the macroeconomic front, Federal Reserve officials remain cautious about interest rate cuts, despite labor market data and easing inflation supporting monetary easing. Wage growth has slowed, job creation has fallen short of expectations, and unemployment duration has increased. The agency does not expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates at the policy meeting on July 30-31, but still holds hope for a rate cut in September.