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Analyst: Ethereum MVRV has shown a divergence since the end of 2022, with a key turning point being the transition to PoS

ChainCatcher message, on-chain data analyst Murphy released an analysis of ETH based on token flow and value ratio. The flow ratio of ETH on trading platforms has dropped below 35% since the end of December 2022, a figure that had exceeded 50% in September 2021. This indicates that ETH was once able to compete with BTC in terms of inflow/outflow ratios on trading platforms, but the significant decline now means that the attention of funds towards ETH is decreasing.Since December 2022, Bitcoin's MVRV "Market Value to Realized Value Ratio" (blue line) has shown a clear divergence from Ethereum's MVRV (yellow line). For the previous 7 years, this indicator had always alternated dominance, with ETH sometimes stronger and sometimes BTC stronger. Now, the blue line remains below the yellow line, indicating that since December 2022 until today, the unrealized profits of ETH holders have consistently been lower than those of BTC. Whether from trading platform data or on-chain data, the turning point for Ethereum's trend seems to have occurred in December 2022. Coincidentally, on September 15, 2022, the Ethereum mainnet merged with the Beacon Chain, completely ending PoW mining and transitioning to a PoS consensus mechanism, and everything changed right after that.As the trend of diminishing sentiment weakens, the capital inflow into these two major assets, BTC and ETH, has significantly decreased since last December. Nevertheless, BTC can still maintain a positive inflow of $5.4 billion over the past 30 days; whereas ETH has turned into a net capital outflow since February 15, with nearly $6.2 billion flowing out in the last 30 days as of yesterday. The attitude of funds is a crucial factor in determining price and trend, and ETH's revival in trend requires waiting for a renewed focus of capital.

Analyst: MicroStrategy's stock price shows technical divergence after BTC hits a new high, which may indicate that the positive cycle has been broken

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, analysts explain the recent stock price trends of MicroStrategy (MSTR) through Soros' Theory of Reflexivity. This theory posits that there is a two-way interaction between investor expectations and prices: optimistic investors drive prices up, and rising prices enable the company to finance at lower costs, further improving performance and pushing prices higher, creating a virtuous cycle. However, when this cycle is broken, price adjustments may exceed market expectations.The stock price of MicroStrategy (MSTR) has continued to decline after being included in the Nasdaq 100 index, once dropping to the $300 mark, down nearly 45% from its historical high of $543 at the end of November, and about 30% from the $430 announced on December 14 after the Nasdaq 100 inclusion. Analysts point out that several market signals suggest MSTR may have formed a short-term top, including: the company's stock price skyrocketing nearly 8 times this year, founder Michael Saylor frequently appearing and promoting the new "Bitcoin yield" indicator, and multiple companies beginning to emulate its Bitcoin reserve strategy.Despite the recent significant pullback, MSTR's long-term performance remains impressive. The stock is still up over 400% this year, with a cumulative increase of 20 times since it began implementing its Bitcoin reserve strategy in August 2020. Most analysts believe that MSTR has experienced similar magnitude pullbacks multiple times over the past three years, but ultimately ended with gains.
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