Matrixport Market Observation: U.S. Stocks Oversold Rebound and Strong Gold Move in Parallel, Market Capital Flows Diverge

In the past week, the BTC price has been consolidating in the short term between $82,000 and $83,000. On the 12th, the BTC price opened at $82,932.99 and closed at $84,010.03 on the 14th, with a maximum fluctuation of 6.71% during the week. Affected by geopolitical factors, the current BTC price hovers around $83,000, showing a slight rebound compared to last week. However, there is strong resistance between $84,000 and $85,000, limiting the upward space. ETH, like BTC last week, was in a sideways adjustment phase, currently hovering around $1,890, receiving support multiple times, with a maximum fluctuation of 7.58% during the week (the above data is from Binance spot, real-time data as of March 18, 15:00).

The newly released CPI data from the U.S. and the signing of a 30-day ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine have allowed U.S. stocks to catch a breather. As of the close on the 17th, all three major U.S. stock indices experienced a slight rebound. The S&P 500, after falling into correction territory (with a maximum drop of over 10%) on the 13th, still saw buying interest, with large tech stocks outperforming the market. The U.S. dollar significantly weakened, with the euro rising 0.4% against the dollar.

Market Analysis

U.S. Stock Rebound Lacks Strength, Volatility Increases, Gold and Fixed Income Assets Become Major Beneficiaries

Last week, global asset markets experienced severe volatility, and market sentiment was once low. However, technical indicators showed extreme overselling, leading to a rebound of over 2% in U.S. stocks on March 13 and 14. Major supporting factors included the alleviation of the risk of a U.S. government shutdown, no new tariffs or geopolitical risks, and the correction of the oversold state of U.S. stocks. However, trading volume remained low, limiting the rebound momentum.

According to Bloomberg, the S&P 500 (SPX) index fell more than 10% in 16 days, indicating an accelerated market adjustment. JPMorgan noted that the current adjustment magnitude is 9.5%, relatively small, with an implied probability of economic recession at 33%. However, Goldman Sachs has lowered its U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.7%, indicating that the economic outlook remains under pressure, and some hedge funds have recently experienced withdrawals.

On the other hand, gold and fixed income assets have become major beneficiaries amid market uncertainty. The cryptocurrency market sentiment is tepid, with eMerge Engine data showing that ETH has continued to weaken, with a decline of nearly 48% since the beginning of the year. Overall, the market still faces uncertainty, especially regarding expectations for future economic growth and policy direction. Investors need to pay attention to macroeconomic data and policy changes, maintaining a cautious attitude, as market volatility may continue.

Gold Breaks Historical High, BTC May Enter Short-Term Consolidation

On March 15, COMEX gold first broke through $3,000, reaching a historical high of $3,004.86. UBS research predicts that gold will exceed $3,200 per ounce by 2025. The reasons include ongoing market risk aversion, macroeconomic uncertainty, worsening U.S. fiscal deficits, and international geopolitical risks, all of which will continue to support the upward movement of gold prices.

At the same time, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 0.7%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 0.37%, indicating that some funds are beginning to withdraw from U.S. Treasuries to buy into the stock market. Currently, U.S. stocks have entered a correction phase, and BTC, constrained by U.S. stock adjustments and gold breaking through key psychological levels, may enter short-term consolidation.

Stablecoin Inflows Decrease, Market Rebound Momentum Insufficient

According to eMerge Engine data on March 17, the inflow scale of dual-channel supply has significantly decreased, with a total inflow of $237 million, specifically showing BTC Spot ETF outflows of $842 million, ETH Spot ETF outflows of $184 million, and stablecoin inflows of $1.264 billion.

Although stablecoin inflows have decreased and ETF outflows have increased, the inflow of existing funds has pushed the BTC price back to $83,000. However, this rebound is mainly driven by a small amount of bottom-fishing behavior, and the current capital flow is insufficient to become the main force for a market reversal.

U.S. Senate Passes Stablecoin Regulation Bill: Algorithmic Stablecoins Face Two-Year Ban

On March 13, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee passed a stablecoin regulation bill, bringing a milestone regulatory framework to the cryptocurrency market. The market generally expresses optimism about the compliance prospects of mainstream stablecoins like USDT and USDC. However, the bill imposes a two-year ban on "stablecoins that rely solely on self-created digital assets as collateral" (such as algorithmic stablecoins) and requires the Treasury Department to study their risks.

This ban has sparked widespread attention on the future development of algorithmic stablecoins. The ban is primarily aimed at preventing systemic risks, increasing market transparency, and protecting investors, but it also leaves room for adjustment for hybrid model projects. The Treasury Department's research results will determine whether these projects can continue to develop, thereby increasing market uncertainty.

Macroeconomic Dynamics

U.S. February CPI Slightly Below Expectations, Consumer Confidence Declines

On March 12, the U.S. released the latest CPI data, with the unadjusted CPI for February rising 2.8% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.9%. This indicates a slowdown in inflation, alleviating the market panic caused by last week's employment data, and market sentiment turned mild.

However, the preliminary consumer confidence index data released by the University of Michigan on March 14 showed a contrary trend. The consumer confidence index fell to 57.9, far below the market expectation of 63.1, and significantly down from the previous value of 64.7. At the same time, the one-year inflation expectation preliminary value rose to 4.9%, exceeding the expected 4.2% and up from the previous value of 4.3%. This indicates that due to the uncertainty brought by the Trump administration's tariff policy, U.S. consumers' concerns about the economic outlook have intensified, putting pressure on market sentiment.

EU Retaliatory Tariffs May Trigger BTC Correction

On March 12, the European Commission announced that it would impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods worth €26 billion ($28 billion) starting in April, in response to the 25% tariffs imposed by the U.S. on imported steel and aluminum. The EU's latest retaliatory tariffs have intensified macroeconomic uncertainty and may lead to increased volatility in BTC prices. This move could trigger new trade war concerns and market fluctuations in the short term.

Analyst Shaohua believes: "The introduction of retaliatory tariffs is not a positive signal and may lead to BTC prices correcting from $83,855 to the key support level of $75,000. A short-term drop below $72,000 in the current bull market cycle can be seen as a 'macro adjustment,' after which BTC still has the potential to continue rising."

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