ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 56.7%, down from 60.1% before the non-farm payroll report. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 43.3%. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged until June is 0, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 52.1%, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 44.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point rate cut is 3.5%.

ChainCatcher news, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the non-farm payroll employment in January was revised from 125,000 to 111,000; the non-farm payroll employment in February was revised from 151,000 to 117,000. After revisions, the total new jobs added in January and February is 48,000 lower than before the revisions.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin10 data, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the U.S. for March recorded 228,000, an increase higher than the market expectation of 135,000. The U.S. dollar index rose 20 points in the short term, currently reported at 101.87. U.S. stock index futures further declined after the release of the March non-farm payroll data.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data, before the non-farm payrolls announcement, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in May, according to CME's "Fed Watch," is 60.1%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 39.9%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 0, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 53.2%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 42.2%.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital stated in an official channel that Trump announced on Wednesday a 10% tariff on all imported goods and launched a "reciprocal tariff" policy targeting countries with significant trade deficits with the U.S., reigniting global trade tensions.As a result:BTC fell from an intraday high of $88,500 to $81,200, a decline of over 8%The cryptocurrency market saw massive liquidations, with long positions liquidated exceeding $221 millionU.S. stock futures plummeted, with Nasdaq futures down 4.28% and S&P 500 futures down 3.38%Consumer stocks with high supply chain exposure were hit hard, with American Eagle plunging 17.47%The market is currently focusing on the upcoming non-farm payroll report. Amid expectations of an economic slowdown, the market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will implement four rate cuts in 2025, with cuts of 25 basis points each in June, July, September, and December.In the options market, short-term volatility remains high, and demand for downside protection has increased, reflecting cautious market sentiment. However, analysts believe that a rebound may occur in the short term as risk assets are generally oversold.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data reports, the financial website Forexlive stated that the importance of Powell's speech on Friday will outweigh the non-farm payroll data. The market has fully priced in the expectation of a rate cut in June, but all comments from Federal Reserve officials on tariff issues have become more hawkish.If Powell's wording also turns hawkish, then be cautious as the market's expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut may undergo a significant repricing.

ChainCatcher message, Sinohope CEO Du Jun tweeted on platform X, "We will select one token with growth potential from the secondary market each month (excluding Bitcoin), with a single investment amount controlled between 2 million to 10 million USD. After each purchase is completed, we will publicly disclose the corresponding on-chain address and investment logic to ensure transparency and share our reasoning with the community."

ChainCatcher message, ABCDE founder Du Jun stated: "We will select one token with growth potential from the secondary market each month (excluding Bitcoin), with a single investment amount controlled between 2 million and 10 million USD. After each purchase is completed, we will publicly disclose the corresponding on-chain address and investment logic to ensure transparency and share our reasoning with the community."

ChainCatcher news, Scroll co-founder Ye Zhang posted on the X platform, pointing out that taxing Ethereum Layer 2 is a major poison for the future development of Ethereum. This shortsighted behavior sacrifices long-term scalability and ecosystem growth for short-term revenue, which is the practice of centralized enterprises, not a choice for neutral platforms. Measuring the value of ETH by only looking at Ethereum's revenue is putting the cart before the horse. The true value of ETH lies in its role as the core of thousands of rollup ecosystems, which is the way forward.

ChainCatcher news, ECB President Lagarde stated that due to the uncertainty brought by the U.S. government's trade policies, the European Central Bank cannot afford to be complacent about inflation. She said, "It's a daily struggle, we are almost at the level we should be, but we must stay there, so that's why I say it's a long battle." There is currently no clear consensus on what will happen at the next decision on April 17. Lagarde said, "We are all determined to achieve this goal, which is a 2% inflation target. On the road to achieving this goal, some want to speed up. Others say, let's take a few steps at a slow pace and wait to see what obstacles arise along the way."

ChainCatcher news, on Monday morning, the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index futures fell more than 0.5%. More volatility may occur this week as Trump is set to announce reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday, and the U.S. March ADP employment figures will also be released on Wednesday. This Friday will see the release of the U.S. March unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data, and on the same day, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a keynote speech.Pepperstone's Head of Research, Chris Weston, stated: "The market is now completely influenced by the upcoming wave of tariff-related headlines, while being highly sensitive to any economic data reflecting a slowdown in economic activity and rising inflation expectations. Risk assets will further decline at the beginning of this week, and cross-asset volatility will increase."

ChainCatcher news, zero-knowledge proof software developer RISC Zero announced the launch of the OP Kailua Validity Mode, enabling OP Rollup to upgrade to ZK Rollup without large-scale technical changes, achieving higher security and faster settlement times. This mode eliminates fraud disputes, ensuring transactions are finalized within 1 hour, and has been adapted for the second phase of decentralized deployment.In addition, the Validity Mode is cost-effective and suitable for high-throughput OP chains. Test data shows that on the Base chain, the transaction cost of this mode can be as low as $0.00012 per transaction. Meanwhile, Kailua also offers a Hybrid Mode, allowing OP Rollup to initially introduce ZK fraud proofs to enhance security with lower collateral requirements and faster dispute resolution capabilities.Currently, several Rollup projects, including BOB and Eclipse, have begun integrating OP Kailua, gradually transitioning to ZK without the need to change technical architecture or sacrifice cost-effectiveness.

ChainCatcher news, Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood stated that the U.S. has fallen into a "rolling recession" (with different industries experiencing recession in rotation).In an interview with Bloomberg, she said, "We believe we are in a rolling recession, and in fact, we will see some quarters of negative growth, as the velocity of money is collapsing." She predicts that the collapse of money velocity will trigger 1-2 quarters of negative growth in the U.S. economy, which will prepare for tax cuts from the Trump administration and interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.Despite her pessimistic outlook on the short-term prospects of the U.S. economy, Wood revealed that Ark Invest has recently been counter-cyclical in buying assets related to cryptocurrencies, such as Tesla, Coinbase, and Robinhood, firmly believing that "technological disruption will lead to healthy deflation."It is worth mentioning that in early March, Wood stated at the Bloomberg Investment Conference in New York that the U.S. economy was at the end of a "three-year rolling recession," after which the U.S. stock market would soar. However, she now seems to have changed this view.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has announced that it has stopped conducting reputation risk reviews for national banks and financial institutions. Previously, the cryptocurrency industry had strongly criticized being excluded from the financial system. OCC Acting Comptroller Rodney E. Hood stated that institutional reviews should focus on "appropriate risk management processes" rather than subjective judgments. The OCC will also remove reputation risk content from its manuals and guidelines, but emphasized that this does not affect its fundamental requirements for bank risk management.Previous news, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency stated that banks have the right to engage in certain cryptocurrency activities.

ChainCatcher message, Scroll announced on platform X that it is expected to upgrade to Stage 1 ZK-Rollup in April this year. This stage will support forced transactions, permissionless transaction submissions, complete zkEVM proofs, and will also establish a security committee composed of industry experts.

ChainCatcher news, according to The New York Times, Musk recently expressed to advisors of President Trump that he hopes to invest $100 million into organizations controlled by Trump's political team.

ChainCatcher news, ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood stated that the current market is digesting the final stages of a rolling recession, which will give the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve more room for policy adjustments than investors expect, potentially pushing the U.S. economy into a "deflationary boom" in the second half of this year. Cathie Wood believes that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will become more flexible, and the market may be underestimating this potential economic rebound momentum.A rolling recession refers to an economic phenomenon where different industries and sectors experience recessions in turn, while the overall economy and job market remain relatively stable.

ChainCatcher News, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has released the latest interpretive letter, clarifying that federally regulated banks can engage in cryptocurrency custody, stablecoin-related activities, and blockchain node operations without prior approval. The OCC also withdrew its 2023 statement regarding banks' cryptocurrency liquidity risks.OCC Acting Comptroller Rodney E. Hood stated, "The OCC expects banks to have strong risk management controls in place that are consistent with traditional banking as they support new banking activities. Today's action will reduce the burden on banks engaging in crypto-related activities and ensure these activities are treated consistently under OCC supervision, regardless of the underlying technology. I will continue to work to ensure that regulation is both effective and not overly burdensome, while maintaining a robust federal banking system."