ChainCatcher news, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech last week hinted at a possible pause in interest rate cuts at the upcoming meeting. This news left investors feeling dissatisfied. However, some economists do not believe Powell's remarks pose a negative impact on the market.Citigroup's Chief U.S. Economist Andrew Hollenhorst stated, "U.S. Treasury yields rose due to Powell's remarks, but we believe this is more a reflection of Powell keeping all options open rather than intentionally sending a hawkish signal." Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Hatzius still expects "the Federal Reserve to cut rates consecutively in December, January, and March, followed by a rate cut once each quarter in June and September, but it believes the FOMC may slow the pace of rate cuts more quickly, possibly as early as the meetings in December or January." However, unless the employment or inflation report in November is unexpectedly strong, the likelihood of the FOMC skipping a rate cut in December is low.

ChainCatcher news, ANNEX Wealth Management Chief Economist Brian Jacobsen stated that the Federal Reserve has not added any drama for this week. A 25 basis point rate cut still keeps the federal funds rate in a restrictive range, but it is no longer as tight as before.Although the Federal Reserve indicated that the risks to its employment and inflation targets are roughly balanced, they might want to italicize "roughly." Because the election is influential, we can see that economic growth has slightly improved relative to the Fed's forecasts, but inflation has also slightly risen relative to their forecasts, which calls for a more gradual pace of rate cuts. They do not need to retract their rate cut plans, but they also do not need to accelerate the pace of rate cuts.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Capital Economics stated that if Harris is elected as President of the United States, her policies are expected to largely follow in Biden's footsteps.Economist Julia Belecoso stated that in this scenario, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond will slightly decrease to 4%, the dollar will weaken, and global stock markets will continue to benefit from the AI-driven bubble. She said, "This, in turn, will help maintain strong risk appetite globally, supporting emerging market assets." Belecoso added that Harris's presidency could be particularly beneficial for emerging markets that are expected to benefit from "friend-shoring."

ChainCatcher news, OpenAI hires former White House official Aaron Chatterji as Chief Economist.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, a new paper by economists at the European Central Bank titled "The Distributional Consequences of Bitcoin" points out that even in the case of a sustained increase in Bitcoin prices, early adopters will be the only beneficiaries, while latecomers and non-holders will suffer severe consequences, even in the absence of a "bubble burst."The economists argue that Satoshi Nakamoto's original vision of Bitcoin as a global payment system has largely failed, and people's perceptions are shifting towards viewing Bitcoin as a continually appreciating investment asset. Economists Ulrich Bindseil and Jürgen Schaaf believe that Bitcoin "......does not generate any cash flows (like real estate), interest (like bonds), or dividends (like stocks), nor can it be used for production (like commodities). Therefore, "...most established methods for calculating or estimating the fair value of assets fail when applied to Bitcoin."The paper states: "The new Lamborghinis, Rolexes, villas, and stock portfolios of early Bitcoin investors do not stem from an increase in economic production potential; rather, they are funded by the consumption and wealth reduction of those who initially did not hold Bitcoin." "Thus, 'missing out' on Bitcoin is not just about losing the opportunity to accumulate wealth, but it also signifies real poverty compared to a world without Bitcoin. This redistribution of wealth and purchasing power is unlikely to occur without adverse effects on society." These harmful consequences include "......the corresponding poverty of other parts of society, jeopardizing cohesion, stability, and ultimately threatening democracy."

ChainCatcher news, a Reuters survey shows that although nearly 90% of economists still expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates by the end of March next year, a slight majority of economists believe that the Bank of Japan will abandon further rate hikes this year. The published survey results highlight the challenges the Bank of Japan faces in advancing policy normalization, as most central banks globally tend to favor rate cuts, and there is uncertainty regarding the new political leadership's preferences for monetary policy.

ChainCatcher news, renowned economists Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok recently suggested in a podcast that Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin should be a strong candidate for the Nobel Prize in Economics.Cowen praised Vitalik's significant contributions to the field of cryptocurrency economics, believing that his achievements far surpass those of other economists. He stated, "Vitalik has built a platform and created a currency that can be said to refute Mises' regression theorem. Although he developed it based on Nakamoto's work, his accomplishments undoubtedly reach the level of a Nobel Prize."

ChainCatcher news, Pantheon Macroeconomics economist Claus Vistesen stated that inflation rates in France and Spain have significantly decreased this month. If this data can represent the entire Eurozone, then European Central Bank policymakers supporting further rate cuts will be in a favorable position to push for a third rate cut next month.The most striking detail in the French inflation data is that the inflation rate for manufactured goods dropped from negative 0.1% in August to negative 0.3%, which is a significant downside surprise, especially considering that the base effect suggests that good commodity inflation should rebound. The ECB's rate cut in October is the new baseline expectation, but a greater certainty for the rate cut will only come after the Eurozone inflation data is released on Tuesday. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, a Reuters survey shows that out of 107 economists, 86 believe that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November and December, bringing it to 4.25%-4.50%. By the end of 2025, the Federal Reserve is expected to lower the federal funds rate to 3.25%-3.50%.

ChainCatcher news, investors originally expected the market to be highly volatile after a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve, but instead, they saw a calm and stable market. However, this tranquility may dissipate quickly."I don't think this calm will last long," said Brian Jacobsen, Chief Economist at Annex Wealth Management, noting that the stock market reversed later that evening, which may indicate a weaker outlook for stocks, "unless we get some data that can provide a clear sense of direction." Jacobsen stated that the market will be watching for upcoming data, such as Thursday's initial jobless claims. Jacobsen said, "The Federal Reserve is clearly in a catch-up mode and is trying to make up for lost time with the recently implemented rate cuts."

ChainCatcher news, Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities, stated that he originally expected the Federal Reserve to gradually cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but the Fed's actions have been "much more generous" than he anticipated, especially as they have already hinted at a possible additional cut of 50 basis points before the end of the year.Cardillo believes that the Fed's move is clearly dovish, mainly due to concerns about a weak labor market. Although the news initially prompted a positive reaction in the U.S. stock market, Cardillo pointed out that market sentiment may change in the coming days, and investors might start to worry about the economic outlook.

ChainCatcher news, economist El-Erian stated that at the press conference, faced with repeated questions from reporters, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell had to deal with the contradiction between the unusual move of starting the rate cut cycle with a 50 basis point cut and the repeated assessment that "the economy is in good shape." This became more complicated, and understandably, he did not want to acknowledge that today's 50 basis point cut was an "add-on" to the lack of a rate cut in July. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, the market generally expects the Bank of Japan to maintain the key overnight lending rate at 0.25% this week, while the December meeting may be more interesting.Among the 36 economists surveyed by the Japan Center for Economic Research, 19 expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates again in December. Before the Bank of Japan meeting on December 18-19, the bank will focus on key indicators to assess whether the economy is on track, including the Bank of Japan's September and December Tankan surveys, third-quarter GDP data, and corporate earnings for the quarter. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, "Fed's mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that economists providing detailed inflation forecasts expect the CPI in August to be relatively mild, just like in July.The median forecast shows that the core CPI will increase by 0.21% month-on-month, which will keep the 12-month inflation rate at 3.2%. The overall CPI is expected to slow down to 2.5%. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, this week's market focus shifts to inflation data, with the CPI inflation report for August set to be released at 8:30 PM Beijing time on Wednesday. Economists expect that the overall CPI in the U.S. for August will slow to 2.6% year-on-year from 2.9% in July. Several economists have indicated that falling gas prices and stable food prices may help control overall inflation. If the predictions hold, the year-on-year CPI inflation will hit a new low since March 2021. The core CPI inflation, excluding food and energy prices, is expected to drop to 3.2% year-on-year. These forecasts align with the estimates from the Cleveland Fed's Nowcast model.According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in September is 70%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 30%. If inflation unexpectedly declines, the expectation for a 50 basis point cut is likely to rise further. On the other hand, if the report meets expectations or even shows a slight increase in inflationary pressures, it may not change the market's expectations for the Fed's rate adjustment this time, but it could somewhat suppress the subsequent dovish rhetoric. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, Jefferies global economist Mohit Kumar stated that given the European Central Bank has already begun to cut interest rates, its rate path is much clearer than that of the Federal Reserve.Regarding the upcoming meeting of the European Central Bank on Thursday, Jefferies predicts that the bank will cut rates by 25 basis points, in line with market expectations. He said in a report: "We expect the European Central Bank to gradually cut rates by 25 basis points each quarter in the upcoming meetings, depending on the data, bringing rates below 3%." Kumar mentioned that if economic growth and inflation data meet expectations, the trough for the European Central Bank's rates is expected to be around 2.50%-2.75%. The current deposit rate of the European Central Bank is 3.75%. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, EY-Parthenon economists Gregory Daco and Lydia Boussour stated, "Powell seems to be more dovish than his peers.Nevertheless, unless there is a substantial deterioration in the labor market in the coming weeks, we still expect that most decision-makers will favor a 25 basis point rate cut in September."

ChainCatcher news, according to Bitcoinist, renowned American economist Steve H. Hanke has labeled cryptocurrency investors as "psychopaths."Steve H. Hanke cited a study from the University of Toronto, stating that cryptocurrency holders exhibit lower levels of analytical and scientific thinking compared to the general population, and are more likely to display psychopathic traits. The study involved approximately 2,001 American adults from the University of Toronto and aimed to "explore the psychological and social characteristics of individuals who invest in and hold cryptocurrencies long-term."It is reported that many members of the crypto community are outraged by Hanke's statement and believe the study is "inaccurate."

ChainCatcher news, economists at Sweden's Nordea Bank stated in a report that as the U.S. economy is expected to achieve a soft landing, boosting the global economy, Sweden is likely to see substantial growth in the coming years.The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates from the current high next month, with some analysts suggesting that policymakers may lower rates by 0.5 percentage points instead of the more cautious 0.25 percentage points.Nordea Bank indicated that this should increase momentum in Sweden, as the Swedish central bank has already cut rates twice. Lower interest rates and taxes will promote growth in domestic output, with the bank's chief economist Jens Magnusson stating that according to the latest forecasts, domestic output is expected to grow by 2.6% in 2025, followed by a growth of 2.9% the following year. A recession in the U.S. is ultimately avoidable, which will benefit the entire global economy. (Jin Shi)