Nomic

4E: This week, U.S. economic data is relatively calm, with corporate earnings reports being the main focus

ChainCatcher news, last week the U.S. September CPI and PPI data were released one after another, sending somewhat mixed signals to the market. However, the overall data reflects that inflationary pressures still exist, and a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month has almost become a certainty.According to 4E monitoring, last Friday's unexpectedly flat PPI data led to a collective rise in the three major U.S. stock indices, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices hitting intraday all-time highs. Last week, the Dow rose 1.21%, the S&P 500 gained 1.11%, and the Nasdaq increased by 1.13%, marking the fifth consecutive week of gains for all three indices. The cryptocurrency market followed the rise in U.S. stocks, with Bitcoin climbing back above $62,000, closing at $62,659, with a weekly decline narrowing to 1.82%. Ethereum was reported at $2,455, with a weekly decline narrowing to 1.47%.In the forex commodities sector, the U.S. dollar index continued to rebound last week, rising 0.4%, leading to declines in most non-U.S. currencies. Affected by the escalating tensions in the Middle East, international oil prices rose for the second consecutive week, with U.S. oil gaining 1.6% over the week and Brent oil rising 1.3%. The fluctuating dollar also drove spot gold further towards its historical high, with a slight increase over the week; COMEX gold futures were reported at $2,674.2 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of 0.04% for the week.This week, U.S. economic data is relatively calm, and corporate earnings reports may become a bigger focus. As the new earnings season kicks off, U.S. stocks may face tests. Recently, the most dangerous news for the cryptocurrency market is the possibility of the U.S. government selling 69,000 Bitcoins (approximately $4.2 billion). Additionally, with only a few weeks until the U.S. elections, the tight election situation adds a lot of uncertainty to the market.eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, bulk gold, and forex. Recently, it launched a USDT stablecoin wealth management product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing investors with a potential hedging option. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

Texas Mayor: Bitcoin mining is like a digital oil well that will boost rural economic revival

ChainCatcher news, according to Bitcoin.com News, the mayor of Rockdale, Texas, Ward Rodam recently published an article in the Austin American-Statesman, outlining the important role of the Bitcoin mining industry in the local economic recovery. Mayor Rodam likened Bitcoin mining to a "digital oil well," believing it has the potential to drive economic revitalization in rural areas across Texas, with an impact comparable to the former oil boom.According to Mayor Rodam, since the closure of the city's largest employer, the Alcoa aluminum plant, in 2008, the Bitcoin mining industry has utilized the legacy energy infrastructure to inject new economic vitality into Rockdale. This is reflected in several aspects:Job Market: Bitcoin mining companies have created hundreds of jobs locally, providing residents with high-paying employment opportunities;Fiscal Revenue: Mining companies have become one of the main sources of tax revenue for Milam County and the local school district;Community Development: These companies actively participate in local charitable initiatives, including establishing scholarships, supporting police and fire departments, and sponsoring youth sports and chamber of commerce activities;Economic Investment: Bitcoin mining companies have cumulatively invested over $1 billion in Rockdale.Mayor Rodam emphasized that Bitcoin mining enterprises demonstrate deep engagement and long-term commitment to the communities in which they operate. He called on Texas lawmakers to fully recognize the positive impact of the Bitcoin mining industry and create a favorable policy environment for its development. The mayor stated, "Texas leaders should fully understand the economic benefits of Bitcoin mining. If we can provide appropriate policy support for its development, Bitcoin mining is expected to become a new growth point driving the revitalization of Texas's rural economy."

JPMorgan: The crypto market is in a wait-and-see mode, awaiting clearer macroeconomic or structural catalysts

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, JPMorgan analysts have pointed out several key factors that may affect the cryptocurrency market in the coming months, mentioning technologies, geopolitical issues, and structural events that could drive price volatility. In a research report released on Monday, analysts discussed the seasonal "Uptober" trend, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the approval of Bitcoin ETF options, and the upcoming Ethereum upgrade known as Pectra.One key conclusion of the report is that October has historically shown strong performance, often referred to as "Uptober," with over 70% of Octobers yielding positive returns for Bitcoin. The analysts wrote, "Although past performance is not indicative of future results, we believe the popularity of 'Uptober' could influence behavior and lead to positive Bitcoin performance this October." Despite the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the analysts noted that the broader cryptocurrency market has yet to see the anticipated positive effects; while a rate-cutting environment typically supports risk assets, the correlation between total cryptocurrency market capitalization and the federal funds rate remains weak at 0.46. Since the Fed's rate cut on September 18, we have not seen a significant rise in cryptocurrency prices due to the cuts, and the market may be waiting for more sustained stability before making a decisive shift.Additionally, the analysts acknowledged that it is difficult to accurately predict how cryptocurrencies will respond to interest rate cycles due to a lack of historical data. Another potential catalyst is the recently approved spot Bitcoin ETF options trading. The analysts expect this could deepen market liquidity and attract new participants. This development could initiate a positive feedback loop, enhancing market structure and making digital assets more accessible to institutional investors. The upcoming Ethereum upgrade, referred to as "Pectra," is also seen as a significant development.The analysts stated, "While Pectra is expected to have a transformative impact on Ethereum's functionality, we believe this upgrade is more structural than a direct price catalyst. The long-term impact of Pectra will be to improve Ethereum's operational efficiency and adoption rates, but it is unlikely to trigger a short-term surge in Ether prices."The analysts concluded that the cryptocurrency market is currently in a wait-and-see mode, looking for clearer macroeconomic or structural catalysts to drive sustained growth. They stated, "We continue to see the crypto ecosystem becoming increasingly sensitive to macro factors, so we are waiting for the next major catalyst to drive the ecosystem's development and enhance retail participation for long-term growth."

BCA Research: China's economic stimulus measures are insufficient to support Bitcoin in establishing a bull market

ChainCatcher message, BCA Research believes that the rise in risk appetite may not be sustained, as China's latest stimulus measures have failed to generate a significant bullish "credit impulse" like in the past two decades (including 2015). Between 2000 and 2020, when the Chinese real estate market was booming, there was potential to introduce an exponential credit curve into the real estate and construction boom. However, now, due to the lack of alternative productive uses for credit of the same scale, it will be difficult to generate the same massive credit impulse.It is reported that the credit impulse refers to the percentage of new credit flows issued through loans and other debt instruments relative to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Since the 2008 financial crisis, analysts have closely monitored China's credit impulse as a leading indicator of global economic growth and a rebound in risk appetite. Historically, the resurgence of this indicator has coincided with the bottoming of the Bitcoin bear market.During the last major bullish easing cycle in 2015, the credit shock peaked at 15.5 trillion yuan, equivalent to 15% of GDP. At that time, the Chinese stock market, represented by the CSI 300, more than doubled in six months, while Bitcoin bottomed around $100, subsequently rising in a two-year bull market and peaking near $20,000 in December 2017.
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