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Analyst: The daily net buying volume of Bitcoin is still greater than the mining volume, but the decline in tech stocks may lead to continued pressure on Bitcoin

According to DL News, Shawn Young, chief analyst at MEXC Research, stated that cryptocurrency traders are expected to drive Bitcoin prices back to $100,000. Shawn Young said, "Although buyers are not purchasing digital assets on a large scale like they did a few months ago, the amount of Bitcoin they buy daily still exceeds the daily mining output. This creates a net positive supply dynamic that could trigger a short-term rebound." Some analysts warn that the situation could worsen.Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mike McGlone even predicts that Bitcoin prices could evaporate by 85%, eventually falling to $10,000. His reasoning is that the soaring stock market has siphoned off market volatility, while gold and silver have outperformed Bitcoin as safe-haven assets. Additionally, the industry seems to have lost confidence in President Trump's push for cryptocurrency, which will drive prices lower.Researchers like Ben Harvey from crypto investment firm Keyrock believe that Bitcoin's next move will not be determined by internal crypto factors but will depend on macro factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and institutional investors buying Bitcoin ETFs. Bloomberg data shows that concerns over an AI spending bubble have triggered a surge in credit default swap trading—these complex financial contracts were almost ignored a year ago. These contracts are similar to insurance, paying out when companies cannot repay their debts.Currently, Alphabet's nearly $900 million debt and Meta's nearly $700 million debt are linked to these contracts. This means that hedge funds are increasingly using these derivatives to hedge against downside risks. In other words, investors are hedging against a significant market sell-off that could drag down Bitcoin prices.Tech stocks, referred to as "AI panic trades," have been under pressure since January. The BlackRock flagship tech ETF (which tracks industry leaders like Microsoft, Oracle, and Palantir) has seen a decline of just over 23% year-to-date.Analysts expect that large tech companies will increase their borrowing from $165 billion in 2025 to $400 billion this year to invest in AI data centers, which could total trillions of dollars in investment costs—if AI projects fail to generate returns, investor risks will increase. Young stated that Bitcoin trading trends are aligning with tech stocks, thus "being the first to bear the impact of liquidity or capital shifts."

Analysis: Bitcoin may set the longest consecutive decline record since the 2018 bear market, with the drop approaching historical extremes

According to Decrypt, if Bitcoin closes lower, it will record its fifth consecutive month of decline, setting the longest losing streak since the 2018 bear market. The current decline has reached 13.98%. Since its all-time high, Bitcoin has accumulated a decline of 52.44%, just 3.82 percentage points away from the maximum drawdown of the 2018 bear market, taking only 123 days.The total market capitalization of the overall cryptocurrency market is reported at $2.33 trillion, down 1.33% in the past 24 hours. Although the Fear and Greed Index has risen from 8 to 12, it remains in the "extreme fear" range. The prediction market Myriad traders currently bet that Bitcoin is more likely to reach $55,000 before $84,000, with a probability of 60%.Technical analysis shows that Bitcoin's price is still operating below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA200), and the EMA200 is below the EMA50, indicating that bearish momentum is dominant. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 34.7, in the bearish range; the Average Directional Index (ADX) has reached 56.4, indicating a strong current downtrend.Analysis points out that to reverse the trend, Bitcoin needs to reclaim the $100,000 level or form a structural reversal pattern with consistently higher lows. Currently, the market still appears to be in a historically prolonged downtrend phase.

Analysis: If ETH breaks through the key neckline, it is expected to rebound to the $2500 range

According to Cointelegraph, despite ETH's cumulative decline of about 20% and briefly falling below the psychological level of $2,000, on-chain data and derivatives structure indicate that the market is brewing a potential rebound.On-chain data shows that over 2.5 million ETH flowed into long-term holding addresses in February, with the holdings of related addresses increasing from 22 million to 26.7 million since 2026. At the same time, approximately 37.22 million ETH (accounting for over 30% of the circulating supply) is currently staked, leading to a continuous contraction of the circulating supply. The network's fundamentals have also significantly improved, with weekly transaction numbers reaching a historical high of 17.3 million, and the median Gas fee dropping to $0.008, a decrease of about 3,000 times from the peak in 2021.On the technical side, ETH's 4-hour chart may be forming an "Adam and Eve bottom" reversal pattern. If the price effectively breaks through the neckline at $2,150, the theoretical target range points to $2,473--$2,634. If it loses the recent high-low structure, $1,909 will be a key short-term liquidity level.In terms of derivatives, the open interest in ETH has decreased to $11.2 billion, significantly down from the cycle high of $30 billion in August 2025, but the estimated leverage ratio remains at a relatively high level of 0.7. Data shows that approximately 73% of accounts are in a long position; the liquidation heatmap indicates that there is over $2 billion in short liquidation pressure above $2,200, while the liquidation scale for long positions around $1,800 is about $1 billion, with a relatively higher risk of short squeezes above.Analysts believe that if ETH can achieve an effective breakout above $2,150, it may open up upward space in the short term, targeting the $2,500 level.
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