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4E: The market digests the Federal Reserve's decision and refocuses on Trump's tariffs, leading to declines in the US stock and cryptocurrency markets

ChainCatcher news reports that, according to 4E monitoring, after the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, the upward trend of U.S. stocks could not be sustained. Economic uncertainty and Trump's tariff plans cast a shadow, leading to a volatile decline in major U.S. stock indices on Thursday. The S&P 500 fell by 0.2%, the Dow Jones dropped by 0.1%, and the Nasdaq decreased by 0.3%. Large tech stocks saw more declines than gains, with Tesla slightly up by 0.1%.The cryptocurrency market showed volatility but overall presented a mild upward trend. Last night, influenced by the U.S. stock market, coupled with Trump's reiteration of old themes in his speech at the DAS summit without any substantial positive news, Bitcoin experienced a rapid decline. As of the time of writing, it has rebounded to $84,650, down 1.33% in the last 24 hours. Most other mainstream tokens have seen some pullback. BNB's on-chain performance has recovered, continuing to be a focus for investors.In the forex and commodities sector, risk aversion dominated the market, with the U.S. dollar index rising by 0.40%, extending Wednesday's gains; investors are paying attention to the Trump administration's sanctions on Iran, with international oil prices closing up over 1.6%; spot gold slightly retreated after reaching a historical high, with a cumulative increase of nearly 16% this year.The market is digesting the Federal Reserve's decision, but investors are concerned that Trump may impose more tariffs in April, questioning whether the potential inflation caused by tariffs will limit the Fed's expected significant rate cuts, leading to a clear risk-averse sentiment in the U.S. stock market.

4E: The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, slows down balance sheet reduction to release liquidity, and both the US stock market and cryptocurrency market rise collectively

ChainCatcher news, the Federal Reserve decided to keep the policy interest rate unchanged, in line with market expectations. At the same time, it announced a significant slowdown in the pace of balance sheet reduction (QT), easing market liquidity pressures. Powell reassured investors that the risk of recession is low, the U.S. economy remains strong, and the job market is still solid.According to 4E monitoring, the Fed's dovish stance boosted risk assets, with all three major U.S. stock indices rising on Wednesday: the S&P 500 up 1.08%, the Dow up 0.92%, and the Nasdaq up 1.41%. Tech stocks led the gains, with Tesla rising 4.68% and Nvidia up 1.81%.The cryptocurrency market rebounded significantly, with Bitcoin continuing to rise to $87,453 driven by tech stocks, before slightly retreating to $85,866 at the time of writing, a 24-hour increase of 3.6%. Other major tokens also rose collectively, with Ethereum returning above $2,000, while XRP surged over 11% due to the SEC dropping its appeal against Ripple.In the forex commodities sector, the U.S. dollar index soared, but the increase quickly narrowed to 0.21% after the Fed announced its decision to hold steady; U.S. oil closed up 0.39%; spot gold prices hit a historic high during trading for two consecutive days, approaching $3,052 during Powell's press conference.Powell acknowledged at the press conference that Trump's economic policies have brought significant uncertainty to the U.S. economy, but reiterated that the Fed is not in a hurry to adjust monetary policy. The updated dot plot indicates that the Fed will cut interest rates twice this year, consistent with the forecast from December last year. At the same time, the Fed downgraded its economic growth forecast while raising its inflation expectations, showing characteristics of "stagflation."

4E: U.S. stocks and Bitcoin fell ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision, while gold reached a new high

ChainCatcher news reports that, according to 4E monitoring, the three major U.S. stock indices ended a two-day rally on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq down 1.71%, the S&P 500 down 1.06%, and the Dow down 0.62%. Tech stocks led the decline, with Tesla plunging 5.34% due to increased competition, and Nvidia's stock dropping 3.35% as new products from the GTC conference failed to boost its price.The cryptocurrency market experienced a downward trend, dragged down by the weak opening of U.S. stocks. Bitcoin quickly fell to around $81,000 last night, rebounding only after the U.S. stock market closed, and was reported at $82,571 at the time of writing, down nearly 1% in 24 hours. Ethereum rose against the trend by 1.3% to $1,940, possibly boosted by news of the Pectra upgrade. Other major tokens mostly showed slight declines.In the forex market, the U.S. dollar index continued to weaken, down 0.13%; Russia and Ukraine may reach a temporary ceasefire on energy facilities, causing oil prices to drop nearly 1.00%. Concerns over a U.S. recession, combined with instability in the Middle East, pushed spot gold up over 1.1%, approaching $3,040 and setting a new historical high.The market is focused on tonight's Federal Reserve monetary policy decision. Although it is widely expected that interest rates will remain unchanged, investors are still looking for insights into policymakers' assessments of the potential impact of the tariff war through the "dot plot" and Powell's remarks at the press conference, as well as clues about when the Fed might cut rates again.

4E: US stocks continue to rebound, cryptocurrency market fluctuates within a narrow range

ChainCatcher news reports that according to 4E monitoring, U.S. stocks continued the rebound from last Friday on Monday, as investors sought to buy on dips after four consecutive weeks of market declines, pushing the indices higher. By the close, the Dow Jones rose 0.85%, the Nasdaq rose 0.31%, and the S&P 500 index rose 0.64%. Most large tech stocks fell, with Tesla leading the decline at 4.83%, down more than 40% this year.The cryptocurrency market fluctuated narrowly, showing overall lackluster performance, with Bitcoin hovering around $83,000, reported at $83,389 at press time, up 0.15% in 24 hours. Other major tokens mostly saw slight increases, with Ethereum striving to hold above $1,900, and BNB's meme market recovering strongly, rising nearly 18% in the past 7 days.In the forex commodities sector, the shadow of Trump's trade protectionism continues, with the dollar index falling 0.33% to a five-month low; influenced by geopolitical factors, oil prices rebounded over two days, with U.S. oil rising 0.59%; gold, driven by safe-haven sentiment, saw spot gold rise 0.57%, reaching a historical high for three consecutive days.Trump's tariff remarks have temporarily quieted, and the market is closely watching global central bank meetings. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates on Wednesday, and Powell's comments after the meeting will be closely monitored, as he has previously stated he is "not in a hurry" to cut rates. Investors will look for any changes in his tone.

QCP Capital: As the cryptocurrency narrative thins, the stock market remains the main focus

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that over the weekend, a Bitcoin whale opened a short position of $400 million, with an average entry price of $84,000 and a liquidation price of about $86,000. This triggered market volatility on Sunday, as some trading groups attempted to force the liquidation of this highly leveraged 40x position, which only required a 2.5% price movement. Nevertheless, the position remains open and has incurred nearly $400,000 in funding fees.The report indicates that the Crypto Fear and Greed Index currently stands at 32% (in the fear range), reflecting a persistent risk-averse sentiment, especially considering the overall negative sentiment in the stock market. This further reinforces Bitcoin's role as a macro hedge tool. For instance, last Friday, the BTC-17MAR25-80k-P options were actively bought 300 times, clearly aimed at hedging against weekend volatility risks.Despite the ongoing market noise, Bitcoin remains stable above $80,000, showing stronger resilience compared to the stock market. In contrast, U.S. stock index futures opened lower this morning due to renewed concerns about an economic recession. This stems from comments made by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who stated that the possibility of a recession cannot be ruled out, echoing sentiments previously expressed by Trump. The market will focus on tonight's U.S. retail sales data to further clarify whether the 0.9% decline in January retail sales is the first signal of a slowdown in consumer spending or merely a pullback following a strong end to the 2024 holiday season.The report suggests that as the cryptocurrency narrative thins, the stock market remains the main focus. Last week's lower-than-expected U.S. CPI data provided temporary relief, but the Federal Reserve is unlikely to pivot to a dovish stance immediately. Given the ongoing tariff risks and inflation concerns, the outlook for interest rate cuts remains uncertain. Therefore, QCP Capital expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at this Wednesday's FOMC meeting. However, as the market seeks any clues about the Fed's next moves, especially amid uncertainties surrounding Trump's policy shifts, market volatility may remain elevated.

4E: The volatility in the US stock and cryptocurrency markets has intensified, and this week marks the arrival of "Super Central Bank Week."

ChainCatcher news reports that, according to 4E monitoring, under the continuous impact of Trump's tariff policy, the three major U.S. stock indices experienced significant fluctuations last week and collectively closed lower. The Dow Jones fell about 3.1%, marking its worst weekly performance since March 2023. The S&P 500 dropped 2.27%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.43%, both marking the fourth consecutive week of decline. Large tech stocks, except for Nvidia which rebounded nearly 8%, all closed lower for the week.The cryptocurrency market was highly volatile, with Bitcoin rebounding after dipping to a recent low on Tuesday, oscillating around $83,000. U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday, driving Bitcoin above $85,000, but the upward momentum could not be sustained over the weekend due to a lack of liquidity, closing at $83,144, up nearly 1.5% over the past week. Other major tokens saw slight increases, with Ethereum striving to hold above $1,900, and BNB boosted by a $2 billion investment in Abu Dhabi and a revival in on-chain memes, rising nearly 10% over the past week.In the forex commodities sector, the U.S. dollar index fell about 0.1% last week; the oil market rebounded on Friday, reversing the downward trend for the week, with U.S. oil seeing its first weekly increase in nearly two months. The shadow of the trade war triggered a rush to safe-haven assets, with spot gold reaching a high of $3,004.94 on Friday, marking the first time it has surpassed the psychological threshold of $3,000, with a cumulative increase of 2.65% for the week.U.S. inflation data for February, both CPI and PPI, came in below expectations, easing concerns about economic stagflation. However, the latest University of Michigan consumer confidence index hit its lowest level in nearly three years, indicating extreme pessimism among consumers regarding the economic outlook. This week marks the "Super Central Bank Week," with over 20 central banks set to announce their latest policy rates, with a focus on the Federal Reserve and Japan, where the market currently expects both the Fed and the Bank of Japan to maintain their interest rates.
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